***Major snowstorm for Midwest/Great Lakes...Mid-Atl./NE US winter storm on Tuesday with significant snow across interior, higher elevation locations…mix in I-95 corridor with snow, ice at onset***
Paul Dorian
Snowfall amounts can be substantial later today and tonight across a wide part of the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
Several inches of snow will pile up this weekend across a large part of the Midwest and Great Lakes (where they are still reeling from some intense lake-effect snow bands) and another winter storm will hit the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US on Tuesday. The best chance for significant snow on Tuesday will be across the interior sections of the northeastern states and heavy rain is the main threat along coastal areas from southern NJ to the Carolinas. The I-95 corridor will likely be in a battle zone period for awhile on Tuesday with some accumulating snow and ice possible at the front end, but a changeover to rain is likely; especially, in the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
A major winter storm will pound away at the Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight with many areas already in Winter Storm Warning/Watch mode. Significant snow accumulations are likely in these Winter Storm Warning areas shown on this map (in pink) produced by NOAA.
Details
A major snowstorm is in the offing this weekend across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes extending from northern Missouri/Iowa/southern Minnesota to Illinois/northern Indiana/Wisconsin/Michigan and the northern part of Ohio. (By the way, snow is likely to arrive in Ann Arbor, MI during the Ohio State-Michigan game that begins at noon). This low pressure system and its trailing cold front will slide northeast on Sunday into the southeastern part of Canada…some rain, ice and/or snow is likely to push through the I-95 corridor region during the morning…watch for slick spots. After that, strong high pressure will build into New England on Monday and reinforcing cold air will push into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Some accumulating snow and ice is possible on Tuesday morning in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but a changeover to rain will reduce the chances for significant accumulations in these big cities. Map courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com
On Tuesday, strong low pressure will ride up along a frontal boundary zone and head to near or just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by late in the day. Precipitation will likely arrive early on Tuesday in the Mid-Atlantic region, and it could be cold enough at the start for some snow and/or ice in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. There is even the chance for some accumulations of snow in the I-95 corridor on the order of a coating to two or three inches; especially, in those sections to the north of the PA/MD border. However, a changeover to rain is likely to take place in the big cities reducing chances for significant accumulations. While it is a close call in the immediate I-95 corridor and a small change can still have a big impact, the overall pattern doesn’t appear favorable for significant snow accumulations in the big cities during this upcoming event. Specifically, it appears the high pressure to the north will be retreating quickly on Tuesday and ocean temperatures are still relatively mild compared to what they’ll be like in a couple of months. The still relatively warm water temperatures during the month of December in the western Atlantic is one of the main reasons that it is difficult (not impossible) to get significant accumulating snow in the big cities early in the winter season…at least from a climatological point-of-view.
The first ten days of December are likely to feature well below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation and an active overall pattern will continue as well raising the chance for snow and/or ice at times. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics
Meanwhile, farther inland and across higher elevation locations, a significant early season snowstorm is in the offing on Tuesday for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US with highest amounts potentially across interior New England…stay tuned on that. In general, the month of December continues to look quite interesting indeed with a colder-than-normal first ten days of the month across the eastern half of the nation and an overall active pattern will continue with additional storm threats.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com