1:30 PM (Tues) | ***Beryl remains a category 5 hurricane at mid-day...reaches Jamaica on Wednesday...Yucatan Peninsula on Friday...late weekend turn to the northwest likely...possibly to SE Texas***
Paul Dorian
The eye remains well intact with Hurricane Beryl at mid-day; however, there is some shear on its western side which soon will cause some weakening…likely before it reaches Jamaica on Wednesday. Image courtesy NOAA/GOES-East
Overview
Hurricane Beryl remains classified as a category 5 storm and is moving at a pretty good clip (22 mph) across the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Beryl will move very close to or right over the island of Jamaica on Wednesday and then likely reach the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by the end of the week. After that, the likely scenario has a weakened Beryl moving over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it very well can take a turn to the northwest late in the weekend meaning a landfall in Texas is on the table.
The latest official track of Hurricane Beryl is shown here from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. A “late in the game” shift in direction to northwest from west-northwest is on the table.
Details
Hurricane Beryl remains a category 5 storm at mid-day with sustained winds of 160 mph (minimum threshold for sustained winds is 157 mph to be classified as a category 5 storm). Beryl is moving west-northwest at 22 mph with a central pressure of 938 mb (27.70 inches). By later tomorrow, Hurricane Beryl will pass right over or come very close to the island of Jamaica generating hurricane conditions with a storm surge possibly as high as 8 feet above normal tidal levels.
High pressure ridging will shift later this week from the interior eastern US to the east coast and this re-positioning opens the door for a shift of Hurricane Beryl from a WNW direction to NW. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
After that, Hurricane Beryl is likely to cross over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico on late Friday or so and this passage over land usually weakens tropical systems before it pushes over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, a weakening of Beryl is likely to begin by early tomorrow just before its direct (or near direct) impact on Jamaica. Once Hurricane Beryl pushes into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to continue WNW towards eastern Mexico. However, a turn to the northwest - and perhaps to the state of Texas - cannot be ruled out as Beryl will become less influenced by high pressure ridging aloft that will shift east from its position at mid-week over the interior US to a location this weekend over the western Atlantic. Bottom line, all residents along the Texas coast (and southwestern Louisiana coast as well) should continue to monitor closely the movement of Hurricane Beryl during the remainder of this week.
Sea surface temperatures are currently well above normal across the Caribbean Sea, but temperatures can drop some after the passage of Hurricane Beryl which is likely to result in “upwelling”. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Looking farther out into the Atlantic, there is another tropical system trailing Hurricane Beryl that is currently located in the eastern Atlantic. This system is likely to follow a similar path as Beryl towards - and then across - the Caribbean Sea, but its intensification prospects are likely to be somewhat diminished. Overall environment conditions may become more hostile than has been the case with Beryl and sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea may actually drop some after the passage of Beryl which could result in enough upwelling for cooler waters from underneath to rise up to the surface.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
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