A complex and unsettled weather pattern is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days that will include some rain, noticeably cooler conditions, and maybe a thunderstorm or two along the way. An upper-level trough will push east from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic region and help to generate these unsettled conditions with an initial shower threat increasing for us during today’s mid-day and afternoon hours. It has turned cooler compared to recent days and will become even cooler on Friday to go along with periods of rain as we close out the work week. It stays on the cool and unsettled side this weekend with temperatures likely confined to the 60’s for highs on both days and the threat of showers from time-to-time.
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The overall weather pattern across the nation remains quite active as we push into the second week of May and this includes continuing threats of severe weather. Earlier this week, severe weather took place across Oklahoma and Texas with numerous tornadoes reported and the threat zone on Tuesday shifted to the Ohio Valley. Today’s greatest threat of severe weather will be focused on the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and, once again, tornadoes will be on the table. The severe weather threat on Thursday will shift a bit to the east and south and likely extend all the way across the Gulf states from Texas-to-Georgia and up along the eastern seaboard to around the Delmarva Peninsula/southern New Jersey region.
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A stalled-out frontal system will push to the north today and its passage will usher in a very warm and humid air mass and there can be isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure will slide north of here on Thursday likely bringing occasional rain to the area and maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. This low pressure system will drag a cold front through the region on Thursday night and its passage will usher in a cooler air mass for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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A frontal system will stall nearby today and a series of disturbances will track along this boundary zone over the next few days. Each of these disturbances will raise the chance of showers and thunderstorms with the best chance of rain likely coming on Thursday when strong low pressure passes through the region. This late week low pressure system will drag a cold front across the area and it’ll turn cooler for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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This will be an unsettled week in the Mid-Atlantic region with multiple chances of rainfall following a very cool and wet weekend. It turns warmer today with afternoon highs not far from 80 degrees, and there will be the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms with the approach of a cool frontal system. This front will then stall nearby and a series of disturbances will track along this boundary. Low pressure will move across the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and it'll drag a cold front through by the end of the week.
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It turns cooler today despite partial sunshine as a low-level flow of air out of the east-to-northeast brings in marine air from the western Atlantic Ocean…all supported by building high pressure over New England. This cool down will intensify over the weekend with both days featuring quite cool conditions, plenty of clouds, and a high risk of some rain. Looking ahead, it appears the wetter pattern that begins this weekend will continue next week as there will be numerous chances for rain.
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A cool front will approach the region later today, but it’ll be lacking in moisture and temperatures ahead of it should climb to unseasonably warm levels and perhaps into record-breaking territory (DCA 91 degrees, IAD 88 degrees…both records set in 2018). It turns cooler on Friday as a low-level flow of air out of the east-to-northeast develops along the I-95 corridor. This cool down will intensify over the weekend with both days featuring quite cool conditions and temperatures likely limited to the 60’s for afternoon highs. In addition, both days will feature plenty of clouds and a high risk of shower activity to go along with those cool conditions. The return of some sunshine on Monday will help to boost temperatures back up into the 70’s as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A stalled-out and weakening frontal system can generate another shower or thunderstorm today in the DC metro region before high pressure takes control of the weather for tonight and Thursday. After a mainly clear and cool night, sunshine on Thursday will boost temperatures to the lower 80’s for afternoon highs and it looks comfortably warm on Friday to end the work week. The weekend is likely to turn much cooler and wetter as a cold front approaches the area from the west and there is a low-level flow of air off the ocean.
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The combination of a back door cool front stalled to our northeast and a weakening cold front approaching from our west will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms from late today into Wednesday. Any thunderstorm that forms can be on the strong side with brief heavy rainfall and small hail. Temperatures climb towards the 85 degree mark this afternoon and will be confined to near 80 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday.
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After a warm frontal passage on Sunday, the warmest air of the season so far will push into the area and afternoon temperatures today should reach the upper 80’s...perhaps even touch 90 degrees in some spots. A cold front approaches the area on Tuesday and its approach will raise the chances of late day and early evening showers and thunderstorms as temperatures climb to the middle 80’s. It stays somewhat unsettled at mid-week with additional showers and thunderstorms possible and highs backing down a bit to the lower 80’s for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
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