12:30 PM (Wed) | ***Hurricane Beryl pounds Jamaica...reaches Yucatan Peninsula on Friday...weekend turn to the NW puts southeastern Texas landfall in play***

Hurricane Beryl will pound away at Jamaica later today and tonight and a trailing tropical system can be seen in this imagery loop just about to enter the Caribbean Sea. Images courtesy NOAA/GOES-East

Overview

Hurricane Beryl is now classified as a category 4 storm and will impact Jamaica shortly with hurricane conditions as it continues to push across the Caribbean Sea in a west-northwest direction. On this path, Hurricane Beryl will slide across the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico on Friday and then push to a position out over the open warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The weakening of Beryl which began late yesterday will likely continue for the next couple of days as it bypasses Jamaica and then crosses land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. After that, Beryl may very well re-intensify this weekend and it likely shifts to a northwesterly direction which would put southeastern Texas on the table for a possible landfall by Sunday night/early Monday.

NOAA’s official storm track of Hurricane Beryl is shown on this map. A “late in the game” turn to the NW is likely for Beryl, in my opinion, due to a repositioning of high pressure over the US to the western Atlantic.

Details

Hurricane Beryl has weakened some during the past 24 hours with sustained winds having dropped from 160 to 145 mph (now category 4), but it remains a “major” hurricane and will pound away at the island of Jamaica later today and tonight with hurricane conditions. Storm surge on coastal areas of Jamaica may get to 6-9 feet above the normal tidal levels as Beryl passes right over the island or just a tad to its south. Beryl continues to move in a west-northwest direction - now at 18 mph - and its central pressure has risen to 954 millibars.

The eastward movement of high pressure now over the eastern US (left map) to the western Atlantic (right map) may open the door Hurricane Beryl to take a turn to the northwest from west-northwest. This turn to the northwest could very well put southern Texas on the table for a possible landfall of Beryl by late in the weekend or during the early part of next week. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

The slow weakening of Hurricane Beryl will continue during the next couple of days as it continues on a WNW track across the Caribbean Sea. As such, it could be downgraded to a “category 2” hurricane before it reach the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and then that trek over the land mass could result in a further weakening down - perhaps to tropical storm status - by the early part of the weekend as it emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Sea surface temperatures are currently above-normal across the entire Caribbean Sea, but they could drop in the near term following the departure of Hurricane Beryl. Upwelling is a process that results in colder waters from underneath to rise up to the surface and this may very well be taking place right now under the center of Beryl over the Caribbean Sea…we’ll know more on any water temperature change over the next couple of days. A cooling at the surface would be less favorable for intensification of the trailing tropical system that is following close behind Beryl. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Once Beryl pushes to a position out over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, it may very well strengthen again – perhaps even back to hurricane classification of “category 1” or “category 2”. A re-intensification of Beryl is not the only thing to look for once it is out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico...a shift in its direction to northwest is likely to come as an eastward moving area of high pressure over the US gradually loses its influence on the storm track. This shift in the storm path to a northwesterly direction would put southeastern Texas on the table for a possible landfall late in the weekend or early next week and, depending on the re-intensification, Beryl could be back to hurricane classification by this time. Bottom line, all residents along the Texas coast should continue to closely monitor the movement (and potential re-intensification) of Hurricane Beryl during the remainder of this week and during the weekend.

As detailed in the “Tropical Outlook” that was issued in April by Arcfield Weather, a typical “La Nina” tropical season favors storm tracks across the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico…this season so far is certainly living up to that finding.

On the heels of Hurricane Beryl, there is another tropical system that is currently closing in on the Windward Islands and Caribbean Sea. This system is likely to follow a similar path as Beryl i.e., across the Caribbean Sea, but its intensification prospects are likely to be quite diminished. Overall atmospheric conditions should be less favorable than with Beryl due to increased wind shear. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea may actually turn out to be somewhat lower for this trailing system as the passage of Beryl may bring up to the surface colder water from below through a process called upwelling.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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