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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DEN

**Signals for an early-to-mid November polar vortex disruption...quite a rare event for this early in the season**

Paul Dorian

In our “2026-2027 Winter Outlook” that was issued a couple of weeks ago, we focused on the strong El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean that looks to continue well into the upcoming winter season. In addition, we discussed in detail the generally favorable prospects for a polar vortex disruption during the upcoming winter; especially, during the second half of the season. Little did we know that there could be polar vortex disruption as soon as the early-to-middle part of November which would be quite a rare event indeed for this early in the season. Computer forecast models indicate there will be a weakening of stratospheric winds sometime during the first half of November indicating a slowing or disruption of the Arctic polar vortex which could have “winter-like” ramifications on the weather across the continental US later in the month or during December.

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6:00 AM | *Warm for another couple of days...cooler, more unsettled this weekend*

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will remain dry and warm across the region with afternoon well up in the 70’s to go along with partial sunshine. The overall pattern becomes more unsettled by the weekend with an organized low-pressure system headed in this direction from the western US. The chance for showers will increase for Saturday and Sunday and it’ll turn cooler as well.

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6:00 AM | *Dry and relatively warm next couple of days*

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will remain dry and relatively warm across the region with afternoon well up in the 70’s to go along with copious amounts of sunshine. The overall pattern becomes more unsettled by the end of the week with an organized low-pressure system headed in this direction from the western US. The chance for showers will increase by the early part of the upcoming weekend and it’ll turn cooler as well.

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6:00 AM | *After an interlude with cold weather, it'll turn noticeably warmer for the weekend and early part of next week...temperatures to climb well up into the 70's from Saturday through Wednesday*

Paul Dorian

After a cold start to the day, sunshine will boost temperatures to near 60 degrees for afternoon highs in the Denver metro region. The weather turns drier and warmer this weekend and into the early part of next week with temperatures again climbing into the 70’s for the afternoon highs.

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6:00 AM | **First good snow in the higher elevations winds down this morning**

Paul Dorian

Another chilly day is in store for the region with rain likely and it can mix with snow at times in the metro area. Several inches of snow are likely in elevations around 9 or 10,000 feet before the storm winds down later today. Widespread frost/freeze is possible late tonight with temperatures dropping to near freezing in many locations. It’ll become drier and warmer again for the weekend.

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*2026-2027 Winter Outlook by Arcfield Weather*

Paul Dorian

A very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.

Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. 

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6:00 AM | *Snow showers on the table for the nearby higher elevations*

Paul Dorian

Cooler temperatures today on the heels of a frontal passage with afternoon high temperatures likely confined to the middle 60’s. It’ll become colder and more unsettled for the mid and late week time periods and there can be rain showers at times across the metro region and snow showers in the higher elevations (mainly above 10,000 feet). 

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6:00 AM | *Stays much warmer than normal for the next couple of days...overall pattern changes by early next week*

Paul Dorian

Well above normal temperatures continue around here for the next couple of days with upper-level ridging centered over the Rocky Mountain States. Moisture will be limited through much of the weekend, but changes will take place in the overall pattern by early next week. Temperatures should cool down by early next week and the risk for some shower activity will be on the increase.

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