**Cooler-than-normal pattern across much of the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of May...cooler pattern will come with multiple rain opportunities**

April 29, 2026Paul Dorian

May gets underway on Friday, and it looks like a cooler-than-normal pattern will dominate in the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of the month. Multiple cooler than normal air masses are likely to push into the north-central states from central Canada during those next couple of weeks and these will ultimately spread to the south and east and encompass the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. A favorable pattern for the transport of cooler-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US will feature a persistent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes as well as some high-latitude blocking up across northeastern Canada and Greenland. In addition to the expected cooler conditions, multiple rain events are on the table during the next couple of weeks beginning with one from later today into early Thursday which will impact the Mid-Atlantic region.

***Severe weather risk later Monday/Monday Night with a focus on Missouri, Illinois and Indiana...threats to continue into May with an active jet stream and additional cold air outbreaks***

April 27, 2026Paul Dorian

A combination of ingredients will come together later today and tonight to enhance the risk of severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley region with a focus on the region from Arkansas to Indiana. One of the contributing factors in today’s severe weather threat is an active jet stream that has intensified in recent days across the central and southern US in an atmospheric response to the initial phase of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the south and east on Tuesday mainly to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. In fact, the threat of severe weather will likely continue well into the month of May as additional cold air masses are destined to drop southeastward from central Canada into the northern US. This evolving weather pattern will produce below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation from late April into at least the middle of May and multiple rain events are likely to be included from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard.

*The development of El Nino...already impacting the atmosphere across the nation with an enhancement of severe weather risks and better opportunities for rain from the Rockies to Mid-Atlantic*

April 22, 2026Paul Dorian

As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is likely to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and all signs continue to point to the increase of water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent days, but some very warm water lurks just beneath the surface, and it is “bubbling” up to the top.

The development of El Nino in the tropical Pacific is actually having some current effects on the upper air flow across the continental US with a more favorable environment for severe weather outbreaks and better opportunities for rain from the Rocky Mountain States to the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, the combination of an El Nino episode in the Pacific Ocean and an area of cooler-than-normal water in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region may result in below-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the summer and fall seasons. Should El Nino continue into the 2026-2027 winter season - and odds are good - it would also have big implications for the weather across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.