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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DEN

10:00 AM Thursday, May 29th - **The initial threat of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season likely comes in about ten days**

Paul Dorian

The 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season officially gets underway on Sunday, June 1st, and there are signs that the initial threat could come as early as ten days or so from now (i.e., June 8, 9, 10th time frame). A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO appears to be foreshadowing the potential of tropical troubles in this time frame as it transitions into a “phase” that is generally quite favorable for activity in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a second favorable sign may be the evolution of the upper-level pattern of highs and lows across North America which may feature strong ridging over southeastern Canada in about ten days or so. A strong ridge in this part of North America is often favorable this time of year for an “undercutting” tropical system in the southwestern Atlantic, Gulf of America, or Caribbean Sea where sea surface temperatures are generally warmer-than-normal.

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**Chipping away at the dry conditions in the eastern US...a couple bouts of rain this week...additional threats ahead**

Paul Dorian

It has been unusually dry across much of the eastern US during the past several months with a focus on the Florida Peninsula, but we have been chipping away at these conditions in recent weeks and there are likely to be additional beneficial rainfall events during the new couple of weeks. Rain is falling today throughout much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US – the second bout of rain this week – and rain is currently falling across portions of the northern Gulf region. This area of Gulf moisture will push east during the next few days and then take a turn to the north early next week and ride up slowly along the Atlantic seaboard. As a result, it appears there will be more beneficial rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Tuesday into Thursday further alleviating the dry conditions and additional rain threats exist later this month in an on-going active pattern.

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6:15 AM | *From unusually chilly to unseasonably warm*

Paul Dorian

After a few days of unseasonably chilly weather, the pattern turns much warmer beginning today and lasting through at least the first half of next week. Temperatures can peak near 70 degrees this afternoon - some 10-15 degrees higher than yesterday – and can climb into the 80’s early next week.  The atmosphere will remain somewhat unstable during the next few days with an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm on the table.

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6:15 AM | **Major spring storm winds down today...much warmer weather on the way for the late week, weekend, and early part of next week**

Paul Dorian

The impact from a major spring storm will wind down today and it’ll turn out to be milder compared to the chill of yesterday with afternoon highs not far from 60 degrees. Even warmer weather arrives on Thursday and continues into the weekend with afternoon highs of 70+ degrees and then 80+ degrees is possible by early next week. While much of the time will be rain-free, there can be isolated showers each of the next few afternoons as the atmosphere will remain somewhat unstable.

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