After a cold start to the day, sunshine will boost temperatures to near 60 degrees for afternoon highs in the Denver metro region. The weather turns drier and warmer this weekend and into the early part of next week with temperatures again climbing into the 70’s for the afternoon highs.
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Another chilly day is in store for the region with rain likely and it can mix with snow at times in the metro area. Several inches of snow are likely in elevations around 9 or 10,000 feet before the storm winds down later today. Widespread frost/freeze is possible late tonight with temperatures dropping to near freezing in many locations. It’ll become drier and warmer again for the weekend.
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A very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.
Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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Cooler temperatures today on the heels of a frontal passage with afternoon high temperatures likely confined to the middle 60’s. It’ll become colder and more unsettled for the mid and late week time periods and there can be rain showers at times across the metro region and snow showers in the higher elevations (mainly above 10,000 feet).
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Well above normal temperatures continue around here for the next couple of days with upper-level ridging centered over the Rocky Mountain States. Moisture will be limited through much of the weekend, but changes will take place in the overall pattern by early next week. Temperatures should cool down by early next week and the risk for some shower activity will be on the increase.
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The tropics are alive and well and we now have a named tropical storm, Isaias, over the southwestern Gulf of America where water temperatures are near 30 degrees (C)...plenty capable of supporting a late season hurricane. TS Isaias is very likely to become the Atlantic Basin’s first hurricane of the season and can hit the central Gulf coast on Friday night or early Saturday...perhaps as a cat 2 hurricane. While landfall is likely to be in the region between southeast Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle, all Gulf residents from Texas to Florida should closely monitor this system.
After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield possibly moving as far as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by later in the weekend. Elsewhere on the tropical scene, Hurricane Rachel over the eastern Pacific is currently churning to the west-northwest; however, it will take a drastic turn to the northeast in coming days and head towards the northern Baja California region with impacts on the way for much of the western US including an added contribution to snow in the Northern Rocky Mountain States.
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Well above normal temperatures around here for the next couple of days with upper-level ridging centered over the Rocky Mountain States for a bit longer. Moisture will be limited for much of the week with only isolated showers possible; primarily, in the higher elevation locations.
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All in all, this looks like a relatively quiet and dry week for the continental US, but tropical systems may change that in a big way by this weekend or the early part of next week. There are not one, not two, but three tropical systems that will have to be closely monitored in coming days...two in the eastern Pacific and one in the Gulf. The only one of the three systems that is currently named is “Rachel” which is a minimal hurricane in the eastern Pacific that is on a seemingly harmless westerly track during the next few days. After that, however, there are signs that “Rachel” will take a drastic turn from a westerly direction to northeasterly, and this could bring its moisture field into the southwestern US and potentially, well up to the north of there.
The second tropical wave in the eastern Pacific should strengthen in the near term to become a named tropical storm and potentially, it can attain classification as a hurricane. This trailing system is likely to turn into Mexico and ultimately, its moisture field can impact the southwestern or south-central states. Meanwhile, a tropical wave now over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of America can intensify into named tropical storm status and potentially into the season’s first hurricane for the Atlantic Basin as it pushes towards the northern Gulf region by the weekend…and potentially, well to the north of there.
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Moisture that has been focused on the eastern part of Colorado will shift away from the Denver metro region today and cloudy skies in the morning should give way to sunshine during the afternoon hours. The weekend is shaping up to be warm and dry with plenty of sunshine on both days.
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The overall pattern will be rather wet during the next few days with an upper-level trough situated to our west and tropical moisture (Polo) flowing ahead of it into this area. Temperatures will be on the cool side for the bulk of the week following the passage of a cold frontal system.
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