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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

**Cooler-than-normal air mass dominating the scene across a large part of the nation...origins in the Arctic...another widespread chilly air outbreak next week...pattern has been quite dry as well**

Paul Dorian

The month of August has been quite kind in many parts of the nation with numerous cooler-than-normal air masses dropping into the US from Canada. A strong cold front pushed off the east coast earlier this week and set the stage for widespread cooler-than-normal conditions here at midweek that extend virtually from coast to coast. This air mass had its origins in the Arctic region and has resulted in more than one hundred tied or broken daily low temperature records on Wednesday and in Atlanta, Georgia, the low temperature today was 55 degrees which tied their monthly low temperature record. I expect to see another large number of stations on Thursday morning with record or near record low temperatures in the eastern US.

Looking ahead, the pattern will repeat later next week with another much cooler-than-normal air mass dropping into the US from Canada bringing a refreshing cool start to the month of September across the eastern half of the nation. This pattern has also been quite dry in parts of the nation including the Mid-Atlantic region and the next several days don’t offer much hope with respect to the chances of some soaking rainfall.

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6:00 AM | *Cooler-than-normal air encompasses much of the nation here at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

A widespread cooler-than-normal air mass continues to reside across much of the central and eastern US here at mid-week and we’ll enjoy a comfortable rest of the week and weekend as well to close out the month of August. Temperatures will likely be confined to near the 80-degree mark during the next few days and then should reach the low-to-mid 80’s during the Labor Day weekend.

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***Hurricane Erin to curve away from east coast...recent weakening brings it down to category 2...Mid-Atlantic coastline impacted on Thursday...two other tropical systems...cool pattern to set up***

Paul Dorian

Erin has weakened during the past 24 hours and has now lost its “major” hurricane status and is classified as a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. The long-anticipated curve of Erin has begun with a movement currently to the northwest at 9 mph to be followed by a northerly push on Wednesday and then an acceleration to the northeast on Thursday. While Erin has weakened in recent hours, it has also expanded in size and its outer perimeter winds are likely to reach tropical-storm force levels across the Outer Banks on Wednesday and potentially even to hurricane-force levels. Rip currents and rough surf will extend all the way up the eastern seaboard for the next couple of days and beach erosion/coastal flooding is on the table in many areas. The biggest impact along the Mid-Atlantic coastline will come later Wednesday night and Thursday with strong winds impacting coastal sections from Long Island-to-New Jersey-to-the Delmarva Peninsula.

Looking ahead, there are two other tropical systems now in the eastern Atlantic, and they’ll have to be monitored during the next several days...any impact from these two systems would be from next week into the following week which would take us into the early part of September. Also, a cooler-than-normal weather pattern looks like it’ll set up for much of the eastern half of the nation for the last week or so of the month of August once Hurricane Erin exits off to the open waters of the North Atlantic.

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***Hurricane Erin to curve away from east coast next few days...significant impact in the Outer Banks...rip currents, high surf along much of east coast with beach erosion/coastal flooding***

Paul Dorian

Erin has strengthened today and is now a category 4 “major” hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and is moving to the west-northwest at around 10 mph. Hurricane Erin will begin a turn to the northwest later today followed by a general turn to the north from Tuesday into Wednesday and then it’ll begin an acceleration on Thursday and take a sharp turn to the northeast.

Even though the center of Hurricane Erin will remain offshore as it curves away from the east coast, its strength, expansion in size, and the prolonged nature of an onshore flow of air will likely result in significant impact to the Outer Banks of North Carolina where beach and coastal damage may be extreme. Elsewhere along the east coast, rip currents and high surf are likely along many coastal sections and there is likely to be beach erosion and coastal flooding with a prolonged period of onshore flow.

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