If you are a skier in the northeastern part of the country then this upcoming storm system will be quite good news as early season significant accumulating snow is likely in much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY. In fact, snow is quite possible during this event all the way into the I-95 corridor and small accumulations are possible on Friday in some of the northern and western suburbs; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.
A deepening trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will slide south and east to a position over the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow night and this will help to spawn a (secondary) low pressure system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be parked over northeastern Canada. In addition to the threat for the first snows of the season, the northeastern states will experience very beneficial rainfall on the storm’s front end as a cold front pushes through from late today into early Thursday…and that won’t be the end of the precipitation.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December.. It is quite a wintry look to this unfolding weather pattern that will include additional snow threats…perhaps one late next week right around Thanksgiving Day.
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A developing storm system will begin to impact the region with rainfall from early tonight into Thursday and it is likely to turn out to be the highest rainfall totals that we’ve seen in quite awhile with 0.75” to 1.25” possible by morning. This developing storm system will be a slow mover due to strong blocking high pressure to the north and its impacts here will continue through Friday with “wraparound” showers and persistently strong winds. From tomorrow afternoon through Friday, instability rain showers are likely and enough cold air can wrap into the system for a mixing with or even a changeover to snow; especially, in the far northern and western suburbs. Significant snow is likely across some interior, higher elevation locations across northwestern NJ and upstate NY to include the Catskills and Adirondacks...an early season delight for skiers.
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The weather map is quite busy currently across North America with intense high pressure ridges combined with deep troughs of low pressure and on top of that we have some tropical moisture on the playing field as well. A deep trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help to spawn a rapidly intensifying storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later today through tomorrow with hurricane-force winds, tremendous rainfall in low-lying areas, and substantial snowfall in the inland, higher elevation locations that will be on the order of several feet in some spots. This storm system will become a slow-mover and there will be lingering effects from northern California to Oregon and Washington all the way through the second half of the week.
Another upper-level trough will slide south and east during the next couple of days from the north-central states and deepen markedly as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Thursday. An initial low pressure system will head to the Great Lakes while a secondary forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This unfolding storm system will also become a slow-mover during the latter part of the week and will bring with it beneficial rains, accumulating snows across inland, higher elevation locations, and a prolonged period of strong NW winds.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a winter look to the overall pattern that should include threats of snow as well.
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High pressure will generally dominate the scene in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the first half of the week, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.
The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. In fact, this is likely to be the most significant rainfall event in several weeks for this area with 0.75” to 1.25” on the table. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday and look for significant accumulating snow across portions of upstate NY to the north and west of here.
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Quite an active and somewhat unusual weather pattern is developing across North America and one that will feature multiple intense upper-level ridges of high pressure and deep troughs of low pressure. One result of this overall pattern will be a powerful storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later tomorrow into Wednesday. This storm will feature explosive intensification with as much as a 70 millibar drop in 24 hours of its central pressure yielding the strength of a “category 4” hurricane and easily classifying it as a “bomb cyclone”. Another significant storm system will develop in this active weather pattern during the late week bringing with it rain, accumulating snows, and a sustained period of strong winds across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.
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The first half of the new work week will be relatively quiet and mild, but the weather turns quite active later this week as a deepening upper-level trough dives into the Mid-Atlantic region. This strong upper-level trough will become a slow-mover thanks to strong blocking high pressure to the north over northeastern Canada. At the surface, an initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes in the late week time period and then a secondary low should form near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline.
The end result of this unfolding scenario should be occasional rain here from later Wednesday into Thursday morning and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Scattered rain showers are then likely from Thursday afternoon through the day on Friday as the atmosphere will remain quite unstable and it is not out of the question that a few flakes or ice pellets mix in at times. In terms of temperatures, after a mild day on Wednesday ahead of the cold front, it turns noticeably colder on Thursday and it’ll remain cold on Friday with highs limited to the middle 40’s to close out the work week. The winds will become quite strong on the backside of this low pressure system from a northwesterly direction and should last all the from later Thursday through much of the upcoming weekend given the storm’s slow movement. One final note, skiers in the northeastern states may be happy after this late week event as early season accumulating snow is quite likely from upstate PA to upstate NY to interior New England.
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The first half of the new work week will be relatively quiet and mild in the Mid-Atlantic, but the weather turns quite active later this week as a deepening upper-level trough slides into the eastern states. This strong upper-level trough will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north over northeastern Canada. At the surface, an initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes in the late week time period and then a secondary low should form near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. The end result of this unfolding scenario will be rain and possible thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Wednesday into early Thursday and then windy, colder conditions to follow for the next few days. Accumulating snow is likely during this event across interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic region from update PA to upstate NY, and interior New England can get hit hard as well by the end of the week.
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Low pressure moves off the Carolina coastline this morning and there will be gradual clearing across our region with an increase in winds from the northwest. High pressure ridging will edge into the area for the weekend leading to dry, cool conditions and winds will remain quite noticeable on Saturday as the pressure gradient remains strong between the departing low and incoming high. Temperatures today will likely peak in the mid-to-upper 50’s for afternoon highs and then climb to the lower 60’s on both weekend days.
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It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal month of November in almost all areas east of the Mississippi River. (In fact, cold air not only followed Hurricane Sandy, but actually wrapped into it with as much as 3 feet of snow piling up in portions of West Virginia during that event). It appears that this tropical season may finally wind down after the ultimate demise of the latest system now over the Caribbean Sea and cold air intrusions into the central and eastern may become much more commonplace beginning late next week. The tropical system is likely to intensify into a named tropical storm (“Sara”) in the near-term, but an extended time period over land will likely reduce its potential impact on the US Gulf coast.
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A cool front and a developing low pressure system will approach the I-95 corridor from the west later today and they will produce showers; primarily, to the south of the PA/MD border. As a result, while clouds will thicken up here today, the NYC metro region is likely to experience nothing more than an evening sprinkle from these weather systems. High pressure returns to the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday leading to a 3-day stretch of dry and cool weather conditions and the wind will be quite noticeable at times.
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