A cold front is working its way through the region this morning and it’s passage will set the stage for a very nice week in the Mid-Atlantic region to close out the month of August. The month has already been filled with plenty of comfortable weather and average monthly temperatures are slightly below-normal in the DC (-3.1°), Philly (-1.3°), and NYC (-1.7°) metro regions. It’ll be warm today to start off the new work week and then the next several days should generally feature cooler-than-normal conditions with high pressure firmly in control of the weather around the Mid-Atlantic.
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An upper-level trough will push into the northeastern states later today and raise the chance for afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...some of the rain can be heavy at times. Hurricane Erin (category 2) will curve away from the east coast during the next couple of days partly as a result of this incoming upper-level trough and begin to accelerate to the northeast on Thursday and is likely to be positioned over the open waters of the North Atlantic by later this weekend. Despite Erin’s track well to our east, rip currents and rough surf will be a big problem along coastal sections during the next couple of days and there can be some beach erosion and flooding at times.
A second high pressure system takes control of the weather for the late week and beginning of the weekend with sunny weather and comfortable temperatures expected on Friday and Saturday. Looking ahead, there are signs for cooler-than-normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the nation for the last week or so of August and we’ll have two tropical systems to monitor on the heels of Hurricane Erin that are now in the eastern Atlantic (may become Fernand and Gabrielle).
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Erin has weakened during the past 24 hours and has now lost its “major” hurricane status and is classified as a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. The long-anticipated curve of Erin has begun with a movement currently to the northwest at 9 mph to be followed by a northerly push on Wednesday and then an acceleration to the northeast on Thursday. While Erin has weakened in recent hours, it has also expanded in size and its outer perimeter winds are likely to reach tropical-storm force levels across the Outer Banks on Wednesday and potentially even to hurricane-force levels. Rip currents and rough surf will extend all the way up the eastern seaboard for the next couple of days and beach erosion/coastal flooding is on the table in many areas. The biggest impact along the Mid-Atlantic coastline will come later Wednesday night and Thursday with strong winds impacting coastal sections from Long Island-to-New Jersey-to-the Delmarva Peninsula.
Looking ahead, there are two other tropical systems now in the eastern Atlantic, and they’ll have to be monitored during the next several days...any impact from these two systems would be from next week into the following week which would take us into the early part of September. Also, a cooler-than-normal weather pattern looks like it’ll set up for much of the eastern half of the nation for the last week or so of the month of August once Hurricane Erin exits off to the open waters of the North Atlantic.
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High pressure to our north will continue to produce an ocean flow of air around here for the next couple of days helping to keep temperatures cooler-than-normal for this time of year. It’ll be somewhat unsettled as well with an isolated shower from time-to-time through tonight and then they’ll be a chance of showers and thunderstorms from tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night associated with an upper-level trough of low pressure.
Hurricane Erin - now a category 3 storm - will curve away from the east coast during the next couple of days partly as a result of this incoming upper-level trough and by Thursday, it’ll begin to race to the northeast towards the open waters of the North Atlantic. Despite Erin’s track well to our east, rip currents and rough surf will be a problem along coastal sections during the next few days and there can be some beach erosion and flooding at times. A second high pressure system takes control of the weather for the latter part of the week and beginning of the weekend with nice weather and comfortable temperatures expected on Friday and Saturday.
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Erin has strengthened today and is now a category 4 “major” hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and is moving to the west-northwest at around 10 mph. Hurricane Erin will begin a turn to the northwest later today followed by a general turn to the north from Tuesday into Wednesday and then it’ll begin an acceleration on Thursday and take a sharp turn to the northeast.
Even though the center of Hurricane Erin will remain offshore as it curves away from the east coast, its strength, expansion in size, and the prolonged nature of an onshore flow of air will likely result in significant impact to the Outer Banks of North Carolina where beach and coastal damage may be extreme. Elsewhere along the east coast, rip currents and high surf are likely along many coastal sections and there is likely to be beach erosion and coastal flooding with a prolonged period of onshore flow.
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A cold front is working its way through the region this morning and it’ll stall out across southern Virginia by tonight. It’ll turn out sharply cooler today and on Tuesday as well on the back side of the frontal system and there will be a stiff northeast wind. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin - now a category 4 “major” storm - will stay well offshore and pass by to the east of here at mid-week. However, rip currents, rough surf, high waves, and beach erosion will be a problem along much of the eastern seaboard during the next several days. High pressure takes control of the weather for the second half of the week and provide us with continued comfortable temperatures for this time of year in the Thursday, Friday, Saturday time period.
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A weak front that pushed into the area on Thursday will hang around for the next few days keeping it somewhat unsettled and it’ll stay quite warm, but no sustained intense heat is in sight. While most of the time will be rain-free from today through the weekend, a shower or thunderstorm can pop up from time-to-time. Temperatures will be comfortable during the early part of next week following the passage of a cold frontal system on Sunday night.
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Tropical Storm Erin appears better organized today and has indeed undergone a bit of strengthening with maximum sustained winds now clocked at 60 mph as it churns to the west at around 17 mph. Over the next few days, Tropical Storm Erin will push over increasingly warm waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for intensification (less dry air, less wind shear). As a result, significant and rapid intensification is on the table for Erin which could take it from its current tropical storm status to hurricane (category 1) classification on Friday and then to “major” hurricane status (category 3 or higher) later Saturday. It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve away from the east coast …first to the northwest then to the north and ultimately to the northeast and out over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Two key players in this expected curve of Erin will be an upper-level ridge over eastern Canada that will tend to get displaced by an upper-level trough of low pressure...all of these systems still need to be closely monitored as small changes can potentially have big impacts on some coastal sections.
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The weather remains unsettled today in the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak cold front settles into the area from the northwest and this system is likely to be the impetus for additional showers and thunderstorms. This front stalls out nearby on Friday and will keep it somewhat unsettled around here right through the weekend and then another front will arrive on Sunday night. Temperatures stay at moderately warm levels for the foreseeable future with no sustained intense heat in sight. The NYC metro region has averaged about 1.5 degrees below-normal so far for the month of August.
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The intensity of Tropical Storm Erin has been relatively unchanged during the past 24 hours maintaining maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph as it churns to the west across the tropical Atlantic. There is not likely to be much intensification over the next 24 hours or so as it continues to deal with a dry air mass and moves over only modestly warm waters. Later this week, TS Erin will push over increasingly warm water in the western Atlantic Ocean and this will very likely result in intensification to category 1 hurricane status...the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season.
Over the weekend, overall environmental conditions will become more favorable for intensification as it moves over very warm water and this can result in Erin attaining “major” hurricane status of category 3 (or higher). It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve to the north over the western Atlantic Ocean and then ultimately to the northeast…likely resulting in it not reaching the US east coast. However, there are several days to go and this system needs to be closely monitored as nothing is written in stone this far out.
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