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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

6:15 AM | ***Some accumulating snow from later today into early Saturday...may mix with rain at times...coldest air yet this season to follow later this weekend into early next week***

Paul Dorian

A “clipper” low pressure system dropping southeast from the Great Lakes will combine with an intensifying oceanic low to produce snow in the region from later today into early Saturday and it can be mixed with rain at times during the day. Accumulations of snow on the order of a coating to as much as 2 or 3 inches are on the table by early tomorrow morning. As the oceanic low intensifies on Saturday and pulls off to the northeast of here, the coldest air mass of the season so far will pour into the region this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday will be confined to the mid-to-upper 20’s for afternoon highs – the coldest day so far this season - and the overnight lows by early Monday morning could be near 10 degrees across some suburban locations.

One final note, for those planning to attend the college football playoff game at Penn State on Saturday (noon start)…bring blankets…high temperatures in the middle 20’s, windy with much lower wind chill values, and maybe a snow shower or two.

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12:45 PM | **Some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Friday into early Saturday…coldest air mass yet to follow...a look ahead to early January and a colder pattern**

Paul Dorian

The combination of a weakening “clipper” low pressure system and an intensifying ocean low that is to develop an inverted trough will raise the chance of some accumulating snow from later tomorrow into early Saturday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. There can be a coating to as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow by early Saturday across portion of eastern PA, much of New Jersey, and the New York City metro region and a coating of snow is possible as far south as the DC metro region. As the intensifying ocean low exits off to the northeast on Saturday, the door will be open for the coldest air mass of the season to ride into the Mid-Atlantic region on stiffening NW winds. A look ahead to early January suggests there will be the return of “high-latitude blocking” across Canada which tends to favor colder weather in the central and eastern US and teleconnection indices support the notion of an overall colder weather pattern.

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6:30 AM | **Some snow likely later tomorrow into early Saturday...coldest air yet to follow for the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week**

Paul Dorian

On Friday, a “clipper” low pressure system will drop to the south and east from the Great Lakes region at the same time low pressure starts to form over the western Atlantic Ocean. These two systems may combine to produce rain and/or snow showers in the region early Friday and then snow showers – perhaps even a period of steadier snow – from later Friday into early Saturday. Accumulations of snow on the order of a coating to a couple of inches are on the table by early Saturday morning.

As the low pressure system intensifies on Saturday and pulls off to the northeast of here, the coldest air of the season so far will pour into the region for the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week. Temperatures on Sunday will be confined to the mid-to-upper 20’s for afternoon highs – the coldest day so far this season - and the overnight lows by early Monday morning could be in the lower teens across some suburban locations.

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11:30 AM | **Some snow likely across much of northern Mid-Atlantic region from later Friday into early Saturday as inverted trough develops...coldest air mass yet to follow**

Paul Dorian

The combination of a weakening “clipper” low pressure system and an intensifying ocean low that develops an inverted trough will raise the chance of some accumulating snow from later Friday into early Saturday across the northern Mid-Atlantic region to include eastern PA, New Jersey and New York City. Farther to the south, snow showers are possible in the DC metro region by Friday night, but accumulating snow there is less likely than to the north of the PA/MD border. As the intensifying ocean low pulls away to the northeast on Saturday, the coldest air mass of the season so far will ride into the Mid-Atlantic region on stiff northwest winds and the lowest temperatures in this cold snap are likely to occur early Monday morning.

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7:00 AM | **More rain later today into tonight...colder on Thursday...snow showers or even a period of steadier snow on Friday/Friday night...coldest air yet later this weekend into early next week**

Paul Dorian

Another low pressure system and its associated cold front will bring more rain to the NYC metro region from later this afternoon into late tonight and a slightly colder air mass will follow for the day on Thursday. On Friday, a “clipper” low pressure system will drop to the south and east from the Great Lakes region at the same time low pressure starts to form over the western Atlantic Ocean. These two systems may “link up” in time to produce rain and/or snow showers in the region from later Friday into early Saturday and perhaps even a period of steadier snow...small accumulations cannot be ruled out on the order of a coating to a couple of inches.

As the low pressure system intensifies on Saturday and pulls off to the north and east of here, the coldest air of the season so far will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region for the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week. Temperatures on Sunday will likely be confined to the 20’s for highs and the lowest temperatures so far this season should take place late Sunday night/early Monday morning with the lower teens a possibility for overnight lows in some suburban locations.

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1:30 PM | **Coldest air of the season moves into Mid-Atlantic later this weekend...cold conditions for Penn State’s home playoff game on Saturday...closely monitoring late week snow chances**

Paul Dorian

There have been many football games played in cold weather over the years at Penn State’s Beaver Stadium, but this one coming up on Saturday will be the first of its kind as an official playoff game under the new format by the NCAA. In fact, the coldest air of the season will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from this weekend into early next week on the backside of strengthening low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. The lowest temperatures in this upcoming cold blast are likely to occur early Monday morning with upper single digits on the table for places like State College, PA, and the lower teens possible in many suburban locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...pretty impressive readings indeed considering there is no snow cover in the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will turn much milder early next week across the central US and a moderation in temperatures will reach the eastern seaboard by Christmas Day which falls on Wednesday of next week.

As far as snow is concerned, there is the chance for snow shower activity on Friday and Friday night in the Mid-Atlantic region and perhaps even a period of steadier snow. The combination of a “clipper” low pressure system dropping to the south and east from the Great Lakes and developing low pressure over the western Atlantic will bring us the threat of snow. The speed at which these two systems “link up” will dictate how much snow can fall on Friday and Friday…small accumulations are on the table and the situation bears watching during the next few days.

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7:00 AM | **Another low pressure system and its associated cold front to bring more rain to the region later tomorrow into early Thursday...a cold weekend shaping up**

Paul Dorian

Clouds, drizzle and patchy fog early today will give way to partial sunshine for the afternoon hours and it’ll become quite mild for this time of year with temperatures reaching the middle 50’s in most spots. Another low pressure system and its associated cold front will bring more rain to the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into early Thursday and a colder air mass will follow for the latter part of the week. Even colder air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend - possibly accompanied by some snow shower activity - and Sunday is likely to turn out to be the coldest day so far this season.

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7:00 AM | *An active weather pattern with multiple (rain) systems to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern this week with multiple systems to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak low pressure will pull away from the area this morning, but it’ll be quickly followed by another system likely to produce more rain around here from later tonight into early Tuesday. Yet another low pressure system should affect our region from later Wednesday into early Thursday bringing more rain to the region. Colder-than-normal air will follow for the late week and the upcoming weekend and it looks like it’ll stay quite cold right into the first part of Christmas week.

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6:15 AM | **Another colder-than-normal day, but with far less wind...mixed precipitation possible late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

It’ll stay well below-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but the winds will not be a factor as they were on Thursday. An overall active weather pattern is unfolding going forward and there will be a couple systems to deal with early next week. By late Sunday, weak low pressure will bring moisture into the Mid-Atlantic region and it can be cold enough at the onset (cold air damming scenario) for a mix of snow and/or ice across some of the N/W suburbs. Another system will follow quickly on Monday and Tuesday bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region.

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***An upcoming active pattern with several signals (MJO, SSW, PNA) pointing to additional Arctic air outbreaks for the central and eastern US***

Paul Dorian

The month of December has started off with a few Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US and while the overall pattern may turn somewhat milder for part of next week, there are multiple signals pointing to additional cold air outbreaks from later next week into the month of January. In addition, the unfolding weather pattern appears to be quite active with numerous storm systems to deal going through the second half of the month of December.

One of the signals for additional cold air outbreaks revolves around an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. A second centers around a phenomenon that features warming over the polar region in the upper part of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere. Finally, a teleconnection index known as the Pacific-North American (PNA) is likely to feature a positive phase for much of the rest of the month and this generally favors high pressure ridging across the western US and Canada which, in turn, is usually favorable for cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US.

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