Erin has strengthened today and is now a category 4 “major” hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and is moving to the west-northwest at around 10 mph. Hurricane Erin will begin a turn to the northwest later today followed by a general turn to the north from Tuesday into Wednesday and then it’ll begin an acceleration on Thursday and take a sharp turn to the northeast.
Even though the center of Hurricane Erin will remain offshore as it curves away from the east coast, its strength, expansion in size, and the prolonged nature of an onshore flow of air will likely result in significant impact to the Outer Banks of North Carolina where beach and coastal damage may be extreme. Elsewhere along the east coast, rip currents and high surf are likely along many coastal sections and there is likely to be beach erosion and coastal flooding with a prolonged period of onshore flow.
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A cold front is working its way through the region this morning and it’ll stall out across southern Virginia by tonight. It’ll turn out sharply cooler today and on Tuesday as well on the back side of the frontal system and there will be a stiff east-to-northeast wind. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin - now a category 4 “major” storm - will stay well offshore and pass by to the east of here at mid-week. However, rip currents, rough surf, high waves, and beach erosion will be a problem along much of the eastern seaboard during the next several days. High pressure takes control of the weather for the second half of the week and provide us with continued comfortable temperatures for this time of year in the Thursday, Friday, Saturday time period.
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A weak front that pushed into the area on Thursday will hang around for the next few days keeping it somewhat unsettled and it’ll stay quite warm, but no sustained intense heat is in sight. While most of the time will be rain-free from today through the weekend, a shower or thunderstorm can pop up from time-to-time. Temperatures will be comfortable during the early part of next week following the passage of a cold frontal system on Sunday night.
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Tropical Storm Erin appears better organized today and has indeed undergone a bit of strengthening with maximum sustained winds now clocked at 60 mph as it churns to the west at around 17 mph. Over the next few days, Tropical Storm Erin will push over increasingly warm waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for intensification (less dry air, less wind shear). As a result, significant and rapid intensification is on the table for Erin which could take it from its current tropical storm status to hurricane (category 1) classification on Friday and then to “major” hurricane status (category 3 or higher) later Saturday. It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve away from the east coast …first to the northwest then to the north and ultimately to the northeast and out over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Two key players in this expected curve of Erin will be an upper-level ridge over eastern Canada that will tend to get displaced by an upper-level trough of low pressure...all of these systems still need to be closely monitored as small changes can potentially have big impacts on some coastal sections.
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The weather remains unsettled today in the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak cold front settles into the area from the northwest and this system is likely to be the impetus for additional showers and thunderstorms. This front stalls out nearby on Friday and will keep it somewhat unsettled around here right through the weekend and then another front will arrive on Sunday night. Temperatures stay at moderately warm levels for the foreseeable future with no sustained intense heat in sight. The DC metro region has averaged more than four degrees below-normal so far for the month of August.
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The intensity of Tropical Storm Erin has been relatively unchanged during the past 24 hours maintaining maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph as it churns to the west across the tropical Atlantic. There is not likely to be much intensification over the next 24 hours or so as it continues to deal with a dry air mass and moves over only modestly warm waters. Later this week, TS Erin will push over increasingly warm water in the western Atlantic Ocean and this will very likely result in intensification to category 1 hurricane status...the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season.
Over the weekend, overall environmental conditions will become more favorable for intensification as it moves over very warm water and this can result in Erin attaining “major” hurricane status of category 3 (or higher). It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve to the north over the western Atlantic Ocean and then ultimately to the northeast…likely resulting in it not reaching the US east coast. However, there are several days to go and this system needs to be closely monitored as nothing is written in stone this far out.
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The weather becomes unsettled today as a trough of low pressure extends into the Mid-Atlantic region raising the chance for afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms….some of the storms can be strong with downpours possible, watch for localized flash flooding. It’ll remain somewhat unsettled on Thursday as well as a weak cold front settles into the area from the northwest and this system could be the impetus for additional showers and thunderstorms. The end of the week and upcoming weekend look to be warm and generally rain-free with high pressure back in control.
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It’ll be quite humid in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days as high pressure pushes farther offshore and the overall pattern becomes more unsettled. A trough of low pressure will slide into the area on Wednesday increasing the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and then a weak cold front can be the impetus for another round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The end of the week and upcoming weekend look to be quite warm and likely rain-free with high pressure back in control.
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High pressure that developed over southeastern Canada last week has shifted offshore and it will tend to weaken and push farther away by mid-week. In addition, a trough of low pressure looks to become established by mid-week and the result will be a more unsettled weather pattern and a returning chance of showers and thunderstorms. Later in the week, a weak cold front will approach the region - perhaps with another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday - and then dry, very warm weather should return for Friday and Saturday.
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High pressure centered over southeastern Canada will shift slowly offshore during the next couple of days and it will continue to influence the weather around here. Given the position of the high, there will be a continuing broad low-level flow of air from the ocean (i.e., east-to-northeast winds) into the northeastern states and this will keep temperatures in check right through the weekend. By the middle of next week, this high will weaken and shift farther offshore opening the door for somewhat more unsettled weather to return to the region.
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