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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

Monday PM - **Pleasant weather to start the month of August and likely one of the nicest weekends of the summer...some heavy rain likely during the transition later in the week**

Paul Dorian

High heat and humidity will persist in the Mid-Atlantic region through mid-week with high temperatures well up in the 90’s each afternoon, but there is significant relief in sight and the transition from here-to-there may feature some heavy rainfall. A slow moving cold frontal system will approach the area late Wednesday and then only be able to grind its way through on Thursday as low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday night and Thursday and some of the rain can be heavy at times as we transition from the current heat to the comfort coming at the end of week. The arrival of the pleasant air mass on Friday will coincide with the calendar flip from July to August and the first several days of the new month look quite comfortable from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. In fact, this upcoming first weekend of August could turn out to be one of the nicest of the entire summer season with comfortable temperatures and low humidity levels.

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6:15 AM | *Hot and humid through mid-week...transition day on Thursday with heavy rainfall possible...a comfortable start to August on Friday and a very nice weekend on the way*

Paul Dorian

A weak frontal system passed through the region last night and the next few days will be quite hot and humid with afternoon high temperatures well up in the 90’s. It should be rain-free both today and tomorrow, but then a slow-moving cold frontal system will approach the region at mid-week and it could produce late day or evening showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Rain is more likely to fall on Thursday in what will be a transition day for the Mid-Atlantic region as the cold front grinds its way through the area and there is the potential for some heavy rainfall. The passage of the cold front by Friday will usher in very comfortable air to close out the work week and begin the month of August, and the weekend could turn out to be the nicest of all summer with a continuation of comfortable conditions.

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6:00 AM | **High heat and humidity today with temperatures soaring to well up in the 90's**

Paul Dorian

High heat and humidity is in store for the region today with temperatures likely to climb into the upper 90’s for afternoon highs. A frontal system will advance this way from the northwest later today and there is the chance for late day showers and thunderstorms making their way into northern sections of the metro region. This front will then stall-out in close proximity this weekend keeping it somewhat unsettled with the threat of additional showers and thunderstorms. It stays hot and humid during the first half of next week, but a pattern change late next week could bring us a more comfortable end to July and start to August.

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*Hot, humid pattern from Friday into mid-week...next week’s pattern conducive to "MCCs"...an August preview...pleasant start...ramp up in tropical activity...MJO update*

Paul Dorian

Heat and humidity will increase today in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures should reach well into the 90’s on Friday along the I-95 corridor. It stays very warm and humid this weekend and through the first half of next week. In terms of prospects for rain, an approaching frontal system late tomorrow will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms; especially, on the NW side of I-95. This front stalls out this weekend nearby and the result will be the threat of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time.

Looking ahead, the pattern changes noticeably by later next week across the northeastern states with an upper-level trough of low pressure intensifying over southeastern Canada. Comfortable air is likely to drop south and east from Canada into the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region late next week and the first several days of August might be rather pleasant. It is at this time that conditions might change in the tropical Atlantic Ocean which can lead to a ramp up in activity by the middle of the new month and a teleconnection index (MJO) supports this notion.

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6:15 AM | *High heat and humidity on Friday with temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 90's...showers and thunderstorms possible late Friday and some of the storms can be strong*

Paul Dorian

Heat and humidity will begin to climb today in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures will soar on Friday with afternoon highs likely in the mid-to-upper 90’s. A cold front approaches the area by tomorrow night and then stalls out in close proximity this weekend. This slow-moving frontal system will bring us the chance of showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow and some of the storms can be strong…weekend looks unsettled as well.

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*Unsettled weather returns this weekend and next week’s pattern with northwest flow aloft could produce “mesoscale convective complexes”...a pleasant start to August is on the table*

Paul Dorian

The last few days have been relatively quiet in the Mid-Atlantic region with dry and warm conditions dominating the scene. Heat and humidity will build up later in the week and an approaching frontal system could lead to showers and thunderstorms by Friday night. That front will stall-out nearby this weekend and likely result in a shower and thunderstorm threat on both weekend days.

The upper-level pattern next week will feature strong high pressure ridging over the south-central states and a northwest flow of air from the Great Lakes to the Northeast US. This kind of pattern sometimes produces complexes of thunderstorms that travel in the northwest flow from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US...something to monitor during the next several days. Looking ahead, there are signs that a strong upper-level trough may become positioned over southeastern Canada at the end of next week potentially bringing a pleasant start to the month of August.

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6:15 AM | *Buildup of heat and humidity on Thursday and Friday...shower/thunderstorm threat late Friday and on both days this weekend*

Paul Dorian

High pressure that had been positioned to our northwest during the past couple of days will shift offshore today and then even farther out to sea on Thursday. This re-positioning of the high pressure system will open the door for a buildup of heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region during Thursday and Friday with temperatures likely peaking on Friday afternoon in the mid-to-upper 90’s. In terms of rainfall, a cold front approaches the area late in the day on Friday and then hangs nearby through the upcoming weekend. As a result, unsettled weather conditions will make a return with the chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday and again on both weekend days.

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6:15 AM | *Comfortable warmth today with low humidity...hot and humid weather returns by the end of the week*

Paul Dorian

The week started off with improving weather conditions on Monday compared to the past weekend featuring comfortable warmth and it should turn out even better today following the passage of a secondary cold frontal system. Plenty of sunshine is on tap for the DC metro region today and it’ll remain comfortably warm with low humidity values. As high pressure shifts from our northwest today to our east later this week, the heat and humidity will make a dramatic return to the area. In fact, temperatures by Friday are likely to reach the mid-to-upper 90’s ahead of the next frontal system which will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms around here this weekend.

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6:15 AM | *Improvement today and a very nice day on Tuesday following the passage of a secondary cold front*

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night paving the way for an improvement in the weather around here today to begin the new work week. A secondary cold front will follow later today paving the way for even better weather on Tuesday featuring plenty of sunshine, comfortably warm conditions with low humidity levels. High pressure pushes off the coast for the late week time period and heat and humidity will make a dramatic return to the region. The next frontal system approaches by the end of the week and it’ll increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday night and Saturday.

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6:00 AM | *Frontal system stalls in the area today and then hangs nearby through the weekend keeping it unsettled...a nice Monday and Tuesday*

Paul Dorian

A cold front will stall-out in the area today and remain nearby through the weekend keeping it unsettled for the next few days with the chance of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time. Another cold front is likely to push through the region on Sunday night paving the way for a dry and comfortably warm start to next week.

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