While not everyone will get hit, the atmosphere is fueling up to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are on the table as well as torrential rainfall from this significant system with the greatest chance of flash flooding likely in the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., E PA, N NJ, NYC) and the greatest chance of severe weather likely in the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva). Multiple ingredients are coming together to raise the likelihood of this very active weather pattern for later today and tonight.
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Numerous ingredients will come together during the next couple of days to raise the possibility of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. In an overall pattern quite similar to a week ago, strong upper-level ridging is currently centered over the Rocky Mountain States, and the outer periphery of this system features northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes. Embedded within this northwesterly flow will be an intensifying upper-level jet streak on Tuesday that’ll drop to the south and east enhancing upper motion in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough of low pressure is currently positioned over the southeastern part of Canada, and it will add fuel to the fire by sending spokes of energy into the northeastern states during the next couple of days. Finally, not to be outdone by its upper-level counterparts, the surface level will get involved as low pressure will deepen over the Delmarva Peninsula on Tuesday and there will be a secondary surface low unfolding over western NY State.
All of these ingredients can result in severe thunderstorm activity during the next couple of days with a focus on Tuesday afternoon and evening and there can be torrential rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with 3+ inches on the table. The best chance of severe weather on Tuesday will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva), and the best chance of soaking rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., eastern PA, NJ, NYC), but some of these details still have to be worked out.
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There is high risk of severe weather later today in the Mid-Atlantic region as several ingredients come together to enhance upward motion and destabilize the atmosphere. There were some showers around earlier today, but the late afternoon and evening hours will present the greatest risk for the severe weather. The primary hazards on the table include damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Showers and thunderstorms can linger on Wednesday; especially, along and to the south and east of the I-95 corridor as the cold front pushes towards the eastern seaboard. Refreshing air will follow the frontal passage on Wednesday night and great weather is destined for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Friday.
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Severe weather affected the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday, and another threat is on the way for later tomorrow. Not everyone will get hit by the strong storms, but ingredients are coming together for what looks like multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms...some of the storms can be severe and some of the rain can be heavy. Showers and thunderstorms can linger into mid-week; especially across the southern part of the Mid-Atlantic and then a refreshing air mass will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, there is an intensifying tropical system over the northern Gulf, and it is likely to reach named tropical storm status (would be Bertha) in the near term.
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The overall weather pattern may be setting up for a severe weather and heavy rain threat in the Mid-Atlantic region during the first half of the upcoming weekend. The pattern will feature an intense ridge of high pressure centered over the Rocky Mountain States by the weekend with northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes/Northeast US. Often times, this kind of flow results in “lines” or “complexes” of thunderstorms dropping to the south and east from the Great Lakes to the northeastern states and that is on the table for Saturday. The potential exists for heavy rain/flash flooding as well as precipitable water in the atmosphere will climb to high levels. The weekend threat will be preceded by hot weather that can see temperatures surge to near the century mark on Wednesday anywhere along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. One final note, wildfire smoke from Canada will likely drop south and east into the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days and it certainly can dim the skies at times.
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El Nino continues to intensify across most regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean with well above-normal water temperatures that continue to rise rather sharply in recent weeks. In fact, all indications suggest that the overall magnitude of this unfolding El Nino will rival some of the great ones in recent history including those in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. The warmer-than-normal water across the Pacific Ocean is likely to lead to a very active next couple of months in terms of overall tropical activity and even the Hawaiian Islands may be impacted by a direct hit.
At the same time, colder-than-normal water currently exists across what is known as the “Main Development Region” of the Atlantic Ocean in terms of tropical activity, and this inhibiting factor combined with El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will likely lead to a quieter-than-normal season in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears El Nino will not only have an important impact on the near-term tropical seasons but potentially have a significant impact on the winter season of 2026.2027. Numerous computer forecast models suggest El Nino conditions will peak during the fall season and will last right into the early spring of 2027.
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The month of June has been relatively benign in terms of overall temperatures along the I-95 corridor, but the flip to July on Wednesday will set off the atmospheric furnace in the northeastern states. The time period from tomorrow through Saturday, the 4th of July, will feature afternoon high temperatures near or even slightly above the 100-degree mark in much of the DC-Boston corridor with record highs in jeopardy. Intense upper-level high pressure ridging will be the key player and catalyst for the excessive heat and humidity in the northeastern part of the nation. At the same time, the western states will enjoy colder-than-normal conditions with deep upper-level trough persisting in that part of the nation.
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An overall active weather pattern across the nation will continue into the month of July and it is currently resulting in some severe weather across the central Plains and also the risk of flash flooding. In fact, the risks of severe weather and flash flooding will extend well to the east during the next few days and likely reach the Mid-Atlantic region at the start of the upcoming weekend. Low pressure and a painfully slow-moving frontal system will play key roles in the unsettled weather conditions into the weekend. Looking ahead to next week, hot weather will push into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by Tuesday and high temperatures well up in the 90’s are likely in the big cities through the end of the work week.
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The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.
“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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Sometimes during the month of June, the jet stream retreats safely to the north into Canada, and the weather settles down across the continental US...that certainly does not appear to the case this year. Upper-level troughs of low pressure and colder-than-normal air masses continue to drop into the US from Canada, and this is resulting in severe weather outbreaks and there will be an enhanced threat during the next few days. Next week promises to feature another impressive upper-level trough by June standards that will no doubt be impactful with more severe weather threats and widespread cooler-than-normal conditions.
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