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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

***Strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat late today/early tonight in much of the Mid-Atlantic region...flooding downpours again possible***

Paul Dorian

In general, it is much the same story as yesterday in the Mid-Atlantic region as far as the weather is concerned with the chance of late afternoon and early evening strong-to-severe thunderstorms along with possible flooding downpours. One minor difference from yesterday will be perhaps a bit later arrival time for the storms in the I-95 corridor as we’re looking at the late afternoon or early evening hours in many spots. Like yesterday, the ingredients are there for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity and possible downpours including an upper-level trough, a slow-moving surface frontal system, and a humid air mass. The unsettled weather pattern continues from tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms and much of next week looks unsettled as well.

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Tuesday PM - ****Strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today/early tonight...tropical downpours with possible flash flooding...similar scenario likely later tomorrow****

Paul Dorian

The combination of an upper-level trough, a slow-moving surface frontal system, and an extremely humid air mass will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight and there can be a repeat performance later tomorrow. Any shower or thunderstorm in this tropical air mass can produce flooding rainfall given the well saturated nature of the grounds in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures today have soared to 90+ degrees all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the high humidity is making for a very uncomfortable day. The unsettled weather pattern continues from Thursday into Sunday with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.

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Monday Mid-Day Update - ***Tropical moisture enhances the threat of flooding downpours in the Mid-Atlantic region...daily threat of showers and storms likely to last right to the weekend***

Paul Dorian

A very unsettled stretch of weather is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region with a shot of showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis right into the upcoming weekend. The rainfall during the next few days will be enhanced by a tropical air mass that pushed northward this weekend along with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal. In addition, a slow-moving upper-level trough of low pressure now centered over the Great Lakes will enhance upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region between now and mid-week. As a result, tropical downpours are possible during each of the next few days which can bring flash-flooding conditions to portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with today’s greatest concern centered around the Chesapeake Bay region. Any thunderstorm from later today into the mid-week can reach strong-to-severe levels with perhaps the highest risk of severe weather coming on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

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***Unsettled pattern next couple days in the Mid-Atlantic with the risk of strong-to-severe thunderstorms...torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts on the table both days...4th of July looks nice***

Paul Dorian

There was a break in the action on Sunday across the northern Mid-Atlantic region, but strong thunderstorms hit many spots across southern sections to close out the last weekend of June. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will become quite high throughout the entire Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight, and this threat will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night...both time periods will come with the risk of strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The combination of a stationary front that turns around later today and pushes northward as a warm front, and the approach of a cold front later tomorrow will keep it unsettled around here, and any thunderstorm on either day can produce torrential rainfall and damaging wind gusts. High pressure pushes in for the mid-week and then a weak cold front comes through late Thursday paving the way for a very nice Independence Day holiday on Friday featuring plenty of sunshine in the Mid-Atlantic region, lower humidity levels, and comfortably warm conditions.

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2:00 PM (Wednesday) - ***Back door cool front to break the back of the heat wave...transition to cooler conditions to come with showers and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

Today will feature high heat and humidity once again in the Mid-Atlantic region and high temperature records for the date are likely to be set in many locations. There is relief on the way, however, thanks to a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England during the next couple of days. Temperatures will be much reduced in the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon as an ocean flow of air (east-to-northwest winds) develops following the passage of the back door cool front. The transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the cool down at the end of the week will come with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe.

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10:00 AM (Tuesday) - ***Peak of the heat comes today with numerous 100 degree readings likely...back door cool front to soon bring relief...next week looks quite reasonable***

Paul Dorian

There were some records tied or broken on Monday and a few spots reached the century mark; however, the peak of this current hot spell comes today with numerous 100-degree readings likely all along the DC-to-Boston corridor. In fact, it is possible that 100-degree readings are experienced later today in each state all the way from Maine-to-Florida. In Philadelphia on Monday, temperatures reached 99 degrees which broke the record for the date set just one year ago, and 100 degrees is certainly on the table for this afternoon which would be the first at “PHL” since July of 2012.

There is relief in sight for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and, in some cases, there can be a dramatic drop in temperatures following the passage of a back door cool front.  The overall weather pattern becomes unsettled as well with the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning on Wednesday afternoon and then increasing on Thursday...any thunderstorm that forms on either day can be strong-to-severe. Looking ahead to next week, overall temperatures look quite reasonable for much of the eastern half of the nation as the calendar transitions from June to July.

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Thursday AM, June 19th - ****Severe weather threat later today/early tonight...an extended stretch of high heat and humidity****

Paul Dorian

Many ingredients are coming together to raise the chance of severe weather later this afternoon and evening in the Mid-Atlantic region. A strong surface cold front, high heat and humidity, and an impressive upper-level disturbance will help to destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon and there are likely to be strong-to-severe thunderstorms impacting the I-95 corridor somewhere between 2pm and 8pm. The cold front clears the coast by late tonight and Friday will turn out to be a less humid day featuring plenty of sunshine and warm conditions.

The moderate humidity expected on Friday will give way to an extended stretch of high heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week. A very strong ridge of high pressure will build into the eastern states, and this will lead to high temperatures well up in the 90’s for multiple days all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.

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****Severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon and again later Thursday...high heat and humidity from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week with 100 degrees on the table****

Paul Dorian

It has become uncomfortably humid and warm today across much of the Mid-Atlantic region following the progression of a warm frontal system that is pushing slowly to the north. This change in atmospheric conditions comes following a cool stretch of weather that featured high temperatures on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday that were well below-normal for the middle of June. The atmosphere will quickly destabilize this afternoon and there are likely to be downpours and strong-to-severe thunderstorms impacting the I-95 corridor somewhere between 1pm and 8pm.

A surface cold frontal system will approach the Mid-Atlantic region from the northwest on Thursday, and this will combine with an upper-air disturbance to bring another threat of severe weather threat to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The likely timetable for severe thunderstorm activity on Thursday will again be 1pm-8pm, and there can be damaging wind gusts, hail, and even isolated tornadoes in any spot along the I-95 corridor. The cold front clears the coast by later tomorrow night and Friday will turn out to be a rather decent day featuring warm and dry conditions to end the work week.

Looking ahead, a very strong ridge of high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region by the early part of next week and this will lead to high heat and humidity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week. After a very warm day on Saturday, temperatures are likely to soar into the 90’s on Sunday and then the first half of next week will feature high heat and humidity and 100 degrees will be a possibility in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.

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****Severe weather threats next few days...scorching heat coming to the DC-to-Boston corridor from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week with 100 degrees on the table****

Paul Dorian

There is a lot going on in the world of weather across the nation with severe weather threats each of the next few days and scorching heat is on the horizon for the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. In the near-term, severe weather will be a major concern today in the nation’s mid-section (Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska) and then that threat zone will shift eastward on Wednesday to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and then to the eastern states on Thursday.

In terms of temperatures, there has been unusually cool weather across the northeastern part of the nation during the past few days and it continues today…this will be just a fond memory in a week’s time as sweltering heat is on the way. Actually, temperatures will surge to much warmer levels on Wednesday and Thursday, but the intense and more sustained heat is coming for the period from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week and 100-degree highs are possible all along the DC-to-Boston corridor.

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***A run to 100 degrees on the horizon for the DC-to-Boston corridor...a surge of high heat early-to-middle of next week***

Paul Dorian

Father’s Day turned out to be very cool across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US with some spots nearly 20 degrees below normal for the middle of June and today will be much the same. Temperatures will rebound dramatically by the middle of this week with highs in the 90’s on the table by Thursday afternoon along the DC-to-Boston corridor. The warm-up at mid-week comes ahead of a strong cold front which can produce strong-to-severe thunderstorms by later Thursday or Thursday night.

After backing off slightly for the end of the week and beginning of the weekend, temperatures are likely to surge in the DC-to-Boston corridor during the early and middle parts of next week with a run to 100 degrees possible in the big cities along Route I-95. Very strong upper-level ridging which has been largely confined to the western states in recent days will push to a position centered over the eastern states early next week and temperatures will respond in a dramatic fashion.

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