Erin has weakened during the past 24 hours and has now lost its “major” hurricane status and is classified as a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. The long-anticipated curve of Erin has begun with a movement currently to the northwest at 9 mph to be followed by a northerly push on Wednesday and then an acceleration to the northeast on Thursday. While Erin has weakened in recent hours, it has also expanded in size and its outer perimeter winds are likely to reach tropical-storm force levels across the Outer Banks on Wednesday and potentially even to hurricane-force levels. Rip currents and rough surf will extend all the way up the eastern seaboard for the next couple of days and beach erosion/coastal flooding is on the table in many areas. The biggest impact along the Mid-Atlantic coastline will come later Wednesday night and Thursday with strong winds impacting coastal sections from Long Island-to-New Jersey-to-the Delmarva Peninsula.
Looking ahead, there are two other tropical systems now in the eastern Atlantic, and they’ll have to be monitored during the next several days...any impact from these two systems would be from next week into the following week which would take us into the early part of September. Also, a cooler-than-normal weather pattern looks like it’ll set up for much of the eastern half of the nation for the last week or so of the month of August once Hurricane Erin exits off to the open waters of the North Atlantic.
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Erin has strengthened today and is now a category 4 “major” hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and is moving to the west-northwest at around 10 mph. Hurricane Erin will begin a turn to the northwest later today followed by a general turn to the north from Tuesday into Wednesday and then it’ll begin an acceleration on Thursday and take a sharp turn to the northeast.
Even though the center of Hurricane Erin will remain offshore as it curves away from the east coast, its strength, expansion in size, and the prolonged nature of an onshore flow of air will likely result in significant impact to the Outer Banks of North Carolina where beach and coastal damage may be extreme. Elsewhere along the east coast, rip currents and high surf are likely along many coastal sections and there is likely to be beach erosion and coastal flooding with a prolonged period of onshore flow.
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Tropical Storm Erin appears better organized today and has indeed undergone a bit of strengthening with maximum sustained winds now clocked at 60 mph as it churns to the west at around 17 mph. Over the next few days, Tropical Storm Erin will push over increasingly warm waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for intensification (less dry air, less wind shear). As a result, significant and rapid intensification is on the table for Erin which could take it from its current tropical storm status to hurricane (category 1) classification on Friday and then to “major” hurricane status (category 3 or higher) later Saturday. It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve away from the east coast …first to the northwest then to the north and ultimately to the northeast and out over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Two key players in this expected curve of Erin will be an upper-level ridge over eastern Canada that will tend to get displaced by an upper-level trough of low pressure...all of these systems still need to be closely monitored as small changes can potentially have big impacts on some coastal sections.
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The intensity of Tropical Storm Erin has been relatively unchanged during the past 24 hours maintaining maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph as it churns to the west across the tropical Atlantic. There is not likely to be much intensification over the next 24 hours or so as it continues to deal with a dry air mass and moves over only modestly warm waters. Later this week, TS Erin will push over increasingly warm water in the western Atlantic Ocean and this will very likely result in intensification to category 1 hurricane status...the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season.
Over the weekend, overall environmental conditions will become more favorable for intensification as it moves over very warm water and this can result in Erin attaining “major” hurricane status of category 3 (or higher). It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve to the north over the western Atlantic Ocean and then ultimately to the northeast…likely resulting in it not reaching the US east coast. However, there are several days to go and this system needs to be closely monitored as nothing is written in stone this far out.
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Tropical Storm Erin continues to churn to the west today with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and it is very likely to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Basin season by the end of the week. In fact, Erin could become a “major” hurricane (category 3 and higher) over the upcoming weekend as it pushes over increasingly warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. After that, Hurricane Erin will probably begin a curve in its path to the north/northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean and likely resulting in it never reaching the US east coast. However, there are still several days to go before this expected curve and it is something we’ll continue to closely monitor in coming days.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season typically reaches a peak around the middle of September and the month of August usually features a steady ramp up in overall activity. Indeed, adhering to the climatological theme, tropical activity has picked up in the Atlantic Basin right on schedule once we flipped the calendar from July to August, and it is featuring multiple systems. A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is providing support to the idea that the next few weeks will remain quite active in the Atlantic Basin.
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A major-league cool-down is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region and the transition from the high heat and humidity to the well below-normal temperatures will come with heavy rainfall, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and localized flash flooding. A slow-moving cold frontal system will approach the area later today from our north and west, but then only be able to inch its way through the Mid-Atlantic region during the next 24 hours as low pressure forms along its boundary zone. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely from early this afternoon into the late-night hours and total rainfall amounts can end up being excessive in some spots raising the concern for potentially significant flash flooding. Much cooler air moves in on Friday on the back side of the slowly departing cold front and low pressure system and we are setting up for one of the nicest weekends of the summer season with very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
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Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon peaked at 98 degrees in Philadelphia - tying a record for the date from 2002 – and most other sections in the Mid-Atlantic region experienced high heat and humidity. Today will also be a day of high heat and humidity, but big-time relief is coming by Friday and it’s not out of the question that jackets may be required as we close out the work week (and begin the new month of August). A slow-moving cold frontal system will approach the area later tonight from the north and west, but then only be able to inch its way through the Mid-Atlantic region from tomorrow into tomorrow night as low pressure forms along its boundary zone.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be somewhat limited in coverage later today and tonight and then they should become more numerous and widespread on Thursday afternoon and night. Some of the rain will be heavy at times during the PM hours on Thursday, some of the storms can be strong-to-severe, and localized flash flooding is on the table. Showers may linger on Friday – the first day of August - and the day will feature a stiff east-to-northeast wind with low pressure pulling away from the east coast. Clearing skies will set in late Friday night and the first weekend of August may turn out to be the nicest weekend of the entire summer season with comfortable temperatures and low humidity levels.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season typically reaches a peak around the middle of September and the preceding month of August usually features a steady ramp up in overall activity. Indeed, adhering to the climatological theme, it appears that tropical activity is about to pick up in the Atlantic Basin after we flip the calendar from July to August, and it could feature multiple systems. A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is providing support to this idea and suggests the time period from around August 5th to the 20th could be one to watch.
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High heat and humidity will persist in the Mid-Atlantic region through mid-week with high temperatures well up in the 90’s each afternoon, but there is significant relief in sight and the transition from here-to-there may feature some heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding conditions. A slow moving cold frontal system will approach the area late Wednesday and then only be able to slowly grind its way through on Thursday as low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be scattered late Wednesday and Wednesday night and then they should become widespread on Thursday. Some of the rain can be heavy at times on Thursday with flash flooding conditions possible as part of the transition from the current high heat to the comfortable air mass coming at the end of week. The arrival of much cooler air on Friday will coincide with the calendar flip from July to August and the first several days of the new month look quite comfortable from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Showers may linger on Friday morning and the day will feature a stiff E-NE breeze with low pressure pulling slowly away from the east coast. Clearing skies will set in on Friday night and the first weekend of August may just turn out to be the nicest weekend of the entire summer season with comfortable temperatures and low humidity levels.
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