Tuesday PM - **TS Erin continues churning to the west...should become a hurricane by week's end and perhaps a "major" this weekend...odds continue to favor it curving away from the US east coast**
Paul Dorian
The set of “ensemble” forecast tracks for Erin by the 18Z Euro-AI EPS indicates a “curve” to the north and then northeast which would keep it away from the US east coast. Map courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, X)
Overview
Tropical Storm Erin continues to churn to the west today with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and it is very likely to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Basin season by the end of the week. In fact, Erin could become a “major” hurricane (category 3 and higher) over the upcoming weekend as it pushes over increasingly warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. After that, Hurricane Erin will probably begin a curve in its path to the north/northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean and likely resulting in it never reaching the US east coast. However, there are still several days to go before this expected curve and it is something we’ll continue to closely monitor in coming days.
Tropical Storm Erin will push over increasingly warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the next few days and this should help it reach hurricane status by the end of the week and and potentially even to “major” hurricane classification over the upcoming weekend. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The 5th tropical storm of the season formed yesterday in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and it continues on a track to the west with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. “Erin” has a good chance of reaching hurricane status in coming days as it pushes over increasingly warm waters of the Atlantic and this would be the first of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season. In fact, there is a chance that Tropical Storm Erin can climb all the way to “major” hurricane status (category 3 and higher) sometime during the upcoming weekend
Over the weekend, high pressure ridging will develop to the north/northeast of what is likely to be Hurricane Erin, and this should help to set off a change in its general direction from west to north. Longer range model forecasts tend to continue with the idea of a curve by Erin to the north and then northeast during the early and middle parts of next week...keeping it away from the US east coast.
The latest map of tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin features Tropical Storm Erin…the fifth named storm of the season. TS Erin is very likely to become the first hurricane of the season by the end of the week and can even attain “major” hurricane status (category 3 and higher) during the upcoming weekend. Map courtesy NOAA/NHC
In addition to the upper-level ridge expected over the North Atlantic, another important player on the field by the early-to-middle of next week may be an upper-level trough of low pressure crossing southern Canada from northwest-to-southeast. If this trough continues to progress on this kind of a track next week, it would support the idea that Erin would not be able to reach the US east coast. Hopefully, the “curving away from the coast” idea will turn out to be how this scenario unfolds, but there are still several days to go and we’ll continue to closely monitor the situation.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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