The overall weather pattern remains quite active across the continental US, and it is the time of year for thunderstorm activity to become more prevalent compared to recent weeks. In fact, there can be some thunderstorm activity in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region later this evening as a strong upper-level disturbance passes through the area. On Friday, there is an enhanced risk of severe weather across the nation’s mid-section as a strong upper-level trough ejects northeastward from the southwestern states along with its associated jet streak.
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An easterly flow of air has developed around here following the passage of a backdoor cold front which will push off any big-time warmup until this weekend or the early part of next week. Temperatures should hold at normal to slightly below-normal levels during the next couple of days with the development of an oceanic flow of air from the still-chilly waters of the western Atlantic. It remains quite damp as well during the next 48 hours with occasional rain and patchy fog around. On Saturday, the oceanic air mass should retreat to the north and - if this indeed takes place - then temperatures could climb to 60 degrees. It should then be very mild during the early part of next week and a strong front can bring a soaking rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region during the latter part of next week.
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The cold air mass that pushed into the northeastern states earlier this week will retreat to the north today and it turns somewhat milder, but it’ll be damp as well with occasional rain and some patchy fog around. It stays unsettled tonight and tomorrow with additional rain likely and the patchy fog will stick around in some areas. A backdoor cold front pushes through the region by tomorrow night and the end of the week will turn out to be quite chilly with a low-level ocean flow of air. A big-time warmup is then likely to take place here this weekend into early next week and temperatures could soar through the 60’s. There will continue to be a threat of showers from time-to-time this weekend and perhaps a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture.
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Moisture pushes northward this morning into the area and it’ll be cold enough for freezing rain during the morning hours possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow at times…small accumulations of ice and/or snow are possible…watch out for AM slick spots. Temperatures should climb safely above the freezing mark this afternoon resulting in plain rain...afternoon highs likely near the 40-degree mark. It turns much milder for the second half of the week and the upcoming weekend, but the warmup will be plagued by multiple rounds of showers. There is the chance that the warmup gets interrupted on Friday if a backdoor cold front drops through the area from northeast-to-southwest. If indeed this cool down takes place and a low-level ocean flow develops, it would be just a temporary setback to the warmup, and temperatures should soar again this weekend and during the early part of next week.
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After a very mild day on Saturday, a strong cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and ushered in a much colder-than-normal air mass for the early part of the new work week. The cold front has dropped just to the south of the area and low pressure will ride along the boundary zone today and snow is likely in the DC metro region this afternoon with some accumulations. By tonight, the dominant precipitation type in the DC metro region will be freezing rain and this could last into the early morning hours on Tuesday. Farther north, precipitation is likely to hold off in the Philly metro region until around daybreak on Tuesday and freezing rain will likely be the dominate precipitation through the morning hours. Watch for slick spots in both metro regions before a changeover to plain rain and above-freezing temperatures.
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A cold front passed through the region on Sunday resulting in a much different day compared to Saturday when temperatures climbed through the 50’s. The cold front has dropped just to the south of here and low pressure will ride along the boundary zone from later tonight into Tuesday. It’ll be cold enough for snow at the onset here towards daybreak and then a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely on Tuesday morning…watch for slick spots during the AM commute and I would expect to see “Winter Weather Advisories” posted later today by the NWS. Temperatures climb towards the 40-degree mark on Tuesday afternoon and expect some plain rain in the area which can continue on Tuesday night. Much milder weather arrives for the second half of the week, but it’ll be accompanied by multiple rounds of showers.
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Low pressure passed by to our south on Thursday and the next couple of days should be dry and increasingly mild. The mild weather on Saturday will come ahead of a strong Arctic cold front which arrives in the area on Sunday potentially bringing some snow and rain shower activity to the area. A weak low pressure system will head towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and with Arctic air fully entrenched, any precipitation with that system should be in the form of snow, but it doesn’t look significant. A second low pressure system could follow on Monday night and Tuesday with some rain, ice and/or snow possible. Looking ahead, a big-time warmup is likely by the end of the next week and weekend and it should last well into the second week of March with a real taste of spring on the way.
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An active weather pattern brought a clipper system to the north of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and another low-pressure is sliding to the south of the region today with little or no impact. A strong Arctic cold front will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday, and it can produce some snow shower activity; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border. Weak low-pressure will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and it could produce some snow with fresh Arctic air in place. Yet another low pressure could quickly follow on Monday night and Tuesday with some rain, ice and/or snow possible. Once that early week Arctic air mass retreats to the north, a big-time warmup should begin late next week/weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with a taste of spring on the way.
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A clipper system passed by to our north yesterday and low pressure will pass by to our south later today. This system can bring some snow and/or rain to the region this afternoon, but its impact should be rather limited as we’ll be on its northern fringes…little to no snow accumulation expected. It turns milder by the weekend, but a strong cold front passes through on Saturday night ushering in much colder air for Sunday and Monday. We’ll have to watch an active frontal boundary zone early next week for possible low pressure that could produce snow in the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking beyond the early week snow threat, there is a good chance for a noticeable warmup later next week with the 50’s a possibility by week’s end.
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An active weather pattern brought a clipper system to the north of the Mid-Atlantic region today with a bit of snow in some areas just in time for the morning commute. Another low-pressure system will take the southern route on Thursday, and some snow and/or rain will be possible in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Another low-pressure system (or two) can impact the Mid-Atlantic region during the early and middle parts of next week and with strong, cold high pressure stationed to the north, frozen precipitation is favored with accumulating snow on the table in some areas.
Looking beyond the early-to-mid week winter weather threats, a noticeable warmup is likely to take place in the Mid-Atlantic region by the end of next week and the warmup can very well last through the second week of March. In fact, temperatures could climb into the 60’s by late next week in portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Washington, D.C.) and the 50’s are possible in the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., Philly, NYC) and it could turn even milder than that during the second week of March. This potential warmup may not be the end of the colder-than-normal weather; however, as there are strong signs for another significant stratospheric warming event to take place by late next week. This potential polar vortex split can bring a return of colder-than-normal weather conditions to the eastern states from around the middle of March to the middle of April.
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