The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will begin with a major Great Lakes snow event from Thursday to Friday and an Upper Midwest snowstorm this weekend and it could end with a White Christmas in many parts of the country. Two of the factors that have been highlighted here, likely leading to a cold and active stretch of weather, include an unusual early season stratospheric warming event and the likely movement of a tropical disturbance into a location that favors colder-than-normal conditions across a large part of the nation. Both of these phenomena – stratospheric warming and tropical forcing – will likely lead to a “buckling” of the polar jet stream which can lead to the unleashing of multiple Arctic air masses from northern Canada into the US (with intense cold in the table), and an activation of the southern branch of the jet stream which will likely produce multiple snow/ice threats.
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A strong cold front will pass through the Mid-Atlantic region later today bringing with it some isolated shower activity. Temperatures will climb to the 60’s ahead of the front, but then tumble during the nighttime hours and the rest of the week will feature colder-than-normal conditions. Winds will become quite a noticeable factor as well strengthening during the day on Thursday and remaining strong during Thursday night and Friday. This late week Arctic air outbreak will set off another round of Great Lakes-effect snows and there can be a few snow showers that make their way across the mountains and into the I-95 corridor.
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Some much welcomed rain is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region for this afternoon and tonight and there can be scattered showers on Wednesday. This threat of rain comes ahead of an approaching cold front which will pass through the region later tomorrow and usher in a cold air mass for Turkey Day. A secondary cold front will pass through later Thursday and even colder air will follow for Thursday night night and Friday and the winds will become very strong throughout the northeastern states. Winds will relax on Friday night and Saturday as high pressured edges this way, but temperatures will remain below-normal right through the upcoming weekend.
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It is looking like a cold Turkey Day across the Mid-Atlantic region with well below-normal temperatures following the mid-week passage of a strong cold front. A secondary cold front arrives later Thursday, and winds will increase markedly on Thursday night and Friday behind this second frontal passage to go along with the colder-than-normal conditions. The chill will stick around right into the upcoming weekend throughout the northeastern part of the country. In terms of snow, this late week Arctic air outbreak will be the catalyst for another Great Lakes snow event in those areas just downstream of the still relatively warm waters and, in some cases, it may be intense with substantial lake-effect snow accumulations. Looking to the weekend, a new storm system could bring significant snowfall to portions of the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and again the Great Lakes region.
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High pressure will remain in control of the weather for another day producing some sunshine here today, light winds, and temperatures on the chilly side with afternoon highs near 50 degrees. A strong cold front approaches the area later tomorrow and the pushes through at mid-week. This system will bring more welcome rain to the area from later tomorrow into Wednesday and its passage will usher in an unseasonably cold air mass for Thanksgiving Day and a secondary cold frontal passage will ensure unseasonably cold weather for Friday and Saturday as well. The winds will become a noticeable factor on Thanksgiving Day from a northwesterly direction and then very strong on Thursday night and Friday. This late week Arctic blast will produce another Great Lakes snow event for those areas just downstream of the still relatively warm lakes, and a few snow showers could make their way all the way into the I-95 corridor.
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High pressure pushes off the coast today and low pressure will track nearby from tonight into early Saturday. As a result, the chance for more beneficial rain in the Mid-Atlantic region will increase tonight and continue into early Saturday. High pressure will then edge its way into the area tomorrow night and this should result in dry conditions and some sunshine here on both Sunday and Monday.
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There are signals that continue to point to an upcoming cold weather pattern for the central and eastern states as the early part of the winter season gets underway. These signs come from such diverse places as the stratosphere over the North Pole (re: Stratospheric Warming), the stratosphere over the tropics (re: QBO), and the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (re: MJO).
To begin, it appears as though there will be a “Stratospheric Warming” event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere in coming days which is quite a rare occurrence for this early stage of the winter season. In fact, it appears there have been only two Stratospheric Warming events in recent history that took place during the month of November...2000 and 1968...and in both of those years the month of December was quite cold across the nation. One atmospheric phenomenon that supports the idea of one (or more) “Stratospheric Warming” event(s) this winter season is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) which is a changing wind anomaly in the tropical lower stratosphere. When an “easterly” or “negative” phase of the QBO is combined with La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean – both of which represent the current situation - there is a strong tendency for an increase in “Stratospheric Warming” events and the disruption of the polar vortex. This particular teleconnection was one of the factors highlighted in the ”2025-2026 Winter Outlook” issued back in October.
Additionally, there is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affects the weather patterns across the globe. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds and rain that traverses the planet in the tropics and - depending on its location and the time of the year - it can contribute to colder-than-normal weather patterns across the central and eastern US.
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After another chilly and cloudy day, a warm front will push through the area later tonight and the end of the work week should feature slightly milder conditions to go along with the threat of PM rain. Low pressure will track near us from late tomorrow into Saturday bringing us a continued chance of rain on Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will edge its way into the area on Sunday and the weekend should end with some sunshine on Sunday and also for the first part of next week.
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Rain comes to an end this morning as low pressure pulls away from the region and it’ll remain on the chilly side with afternoon high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40’s…below-normal for this time of year. A warm front slides across the area later Thursday night and the end of the work week should feature slightly milder conditions to go along with the threat of showers. A weak cold front crosses the area on Friday night and its passage will pave the way for a slightly cooler start to the upcoming weekend.
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It has been quite dry in the Mid-Atlantic region during the past several weeks with below-normal rainfall so far during the month of November, and this current dry stretch has come after the drier-than-normal months of September and October. While not a heavy rain event, low pressure will bring some beneficial rainfall to portions of the Mid-Atlantic region from late today into late tonight with up to half an inch possible in some locations. And, with a cold, dry air mass in place, the precipitation could be a mix of snow, sleet and rain in some spots or even “all” snow for awhile; especially, in those inland, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, minor snow accumulations of a couple of inches are possible by early tomorrow across places like central PA, northeastern PA, and in the interior sections of northern New Jersey.
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