After a day with some severe weather including hail and isolated tornadoes, a winter blast will arrive today in the Mid-Atlantic region with well below normal temperatures for the middle of November. There will be more rain today and tonight and it can mix with or change to snow at times in some of the higher suburban locations to the north and west. The winds will remain stiff this weekend from a northwesterly direction and temperatures will remain much colder-than-normal on both days.
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There will be periods of rain later today, tonight, and Friday as a strengthening storm system organizes off the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. Much colder air will push into the area later tonight as northwest winds pick up in intensity and it is not out of the question that a few flakes mix in at times from later tonight into Friday night. The first accumulating snows of the season are likely for some of the higher elevation locations of the Appalachians all the way from the Tennessee Valley to northern New England. The weekend will feature windy and cold conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region with some sunshine on each day to go along with the well below-normal temperatures.
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The weather pattern is certainly quite interesting as we close in on the winter season with one of the strongest El Nino events in at least the last fifty years and one of the earliest stratospheric warming events ever recorded over the polar region of the northern hemisphere. In the past, very strong El Nino events have resulted in much warmer-than-normal conditions during December across much of the continental US including the most recent episode of 2015-2016. The current El Nino, however, is by no means your normal “east-based” event as a rare early stratospheric warming event over the polar region throws a monkey wrench in the conventional idea of a warm month of December. Indeed, there are signs of a widespread cold air outbreak later in November during what is likely to be an active Thanksgiving Day week, and signals point to the chance for additional cold air outbreaks as we progress through the first half of December. In fact, it could end up being a very interesting period of weather between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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One last day here on Veterans Day featuring mild and dry conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region , but big changes begin on Thursday which will lead us to a windy and cold weekend. A significant upper-level trough will evolve over the eastern states during the late week and stick around through the weekend with increasingly colder conditions. In addition, there will be periods of rain from tomorrow into Friday with the first snows of the season across the interior higher elevations of the Appalachians…can even be a few flakes mixing in around here at times. The weekend is shaping up to be windy and cold on both days with some sunshine and well below normal temperatures for this time of year.
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After a couple more quiet, dry weather days, major changes are coming to the Mid-Atlantic region for the late week and weekend. A significant upper-level trough will evolve over the eastern states by week’s end and it will likely feature an initial surface low that tracks over the Ohio Valley and then a secondary somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. An increasingly colder air mass will mix into this system with rain around here from Thursday into Friday and there can be some snow in the interior higher elevations of the Appalachians. The weekend is shaping up to be windy and cold with temperatures well below normal for this time of year.
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The first half of the week will feature dry weather in the Mid-Atlantic region with high pressure in control, but major changes are coming for the late week and weekend. A significant upper-level trough will evolve over the eastern states by week’s end and it may feature an initial surface low that tracks over the Ohio Valley and then a secondary near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. An increasingly colder air mass will mix into this system and snow is likely to form in some of the interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the weekend and it is not out of the question that a few flakes fall around here.
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Low pressure is pushing northward this morning along a frontal boundary zone that parallels the east coast and more rain is falling across the eastern Mid-Atlantic…and a real soaking rain event in New Jersey. It turns quite breezy and cooler this weekend on the heels of the frontal passage and an isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out.
Looking ahead, the first half of next week looks to be mainly dry and mild and then a much colder air mass could push in for the late week. In fact, there could be a storm system to deal in the northeastern states that may actually produce snow in some of the interior higher elevation locations.
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A slow-moving cold front will inch its way towards the coast during the next 24 hours or so bringing an end to the dry spell in the Mid-Atlantic region. There will be occasional showers today and then more beneficial rain is possible tonight and Friday as low pressure forms along the stalling-out frontal boundary zone. In fact, there can be a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall late tonight and early Friday in areas just to the south and east of the I-95 corridor including, for example, northern Delaware and southern New Jersey. The weather for the weekend should turn out to be pretty decent although somewhat unsettled at times with breezy conditions and a shower or two cannot be completely ruled out.
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An unusually early polar vortex disruption is now underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and it could have winter-like implications on the weather across portions of the continental US later this month and during the month of December. In a typical strong El Nino winter season, mild Pacific Ocean air can overwhelm the nation, but this rare early season polar vortex disruption throws a monkey wrench into the whole concept of a “normal” El Nino winter season. An analysis of upper-level data records going as far back as the 1950’s show just how rare this polar vortex disruption is with the closest analog coming in late November of 1968...some three weeks later than the current rare early season event. One final note, most computer forecast models are not currently showing much in the way of cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern during the second half of this month; however, I would expect them to trend colder very soon as they start “picking up” on this rare early season polar vortex disruption.
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After another warm, dry and sunny day in the Mid-Atlantic region, showers will likely push into the area on Thursday and can continue on an off and on basis into the day on Friday. A slow-moving cold front will close in on the eastern seaboard during the next couple of days bringing showers to the region and then low pressure will form along this stalling-out frontal boundary zone. This low pressure system will push to the northeast on Friday and could produce a narrow band of heavier rainfall likely focused just to the south and east of Route I-95 in places like the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey. The weekend may turn out to be pretty decent following the departure of the front with cool temperatures for the early part of next week.
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