A very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.
Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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Today will feature unseasonably warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and clouds will increase ahead of a frontal system. This front can bring a few PM showers and thunderstorms to the area and high temperatures should drop by 15 degrees or so from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon. An even stronger cold front arrives on Friday night likely with additional shower and thunderstorm activity and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures are likely to drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend with a widespread frost/freeze possible and there may even be snow showers up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.
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The next couple of days will feature quite warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of sunshine as high pressure takes control. A front slides through on Wednesday night and it may knock off about ten degrees from Thursday afternoon highs as compared with Wednesday. A stronger cold front arrives on Friday night…potentially with some shower activity…and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures are likely to drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend and there may even be snow showers up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.
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The next couple of days will feature quite warm conditions across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US with temperatures well above normal for the middle of October. However, a big change is coming for the weekend, and it will result in the first taste of winter to the same part of the country. A strong cold front should pass through the northeastern states on Friday night, and the weekend may feature temperatures way down in the 30’s in many spots and “lake-effect” snow showers are possible just downstream of the still relatively warm Great Lakes. The chill down will be brief, and warmer weather returns next week, but for a couple of days this weekend, it may be difficult to have thoughts about the upcoming winter season.
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The remnants of Hurricane Isaias contributed to a rainy Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic region and it pushes farther away today allowing for clearing skies in the afternoon after a mainly cloudy morning and residual light rain or drizzle. The next couple of days should feature plenty of sunshine and warm conditions with high pressure in control. A strong cold front arrives on Friday night…potentially with some shower activity…and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in for the upcoming weekend and there may even be snow showers up in the mountains to our north and west.
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Hurricane Isaias indeed intensified during the past 24 hours and is now right on the verge of classification as a “major” category 3 storm. Landfall is likely around midnight on Friday night near the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle. There can be some weakening of Isaias in the few hours just before landfall due to increasing wind shear; nonetheless, it will remain a dangerous hurricane with heavy rain, damaging winds, and significant storm surge along the Gulf coast. Impacts will extend northward to the Tennessee Valley on Saturday with heavy rain, damaging winds and potentially severe weather to include the risk of isolated tornadoes. Rain and wind will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms mixed into the picture as well.
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Hurricane Isaias indeed intensified overnight and it now on the doorstep of being classified as a “major” category 3 storm. Landfall is likely later tonight somewhere near the very western part of Florida’s Panhandle with heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and high storm surge expected along the Gulf coast. Severe weather will become a risk later tonight and on Saturday in the southeastern states with isolated tornadoes on the table. After landfall, the impact from Isaias will continue well to the north of the Gulf coast as it first moves north to the Tennessee Valley and then northeast on Sunday towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Rain and wind should push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and there can be a few thunderstorms in the mix as well…some of the rain can be heavy at times.
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The eastern Pacific Ocean is alive and well with tropical activity and now the Atlantic Basin has its first hurricane of the season which is the latest for the first hurricane in more than one hundred years. Hurricane Isaias is now pulling out of the southwestern Gulf with maximum sustained winds of around 80 mph (category 1). It is quite likely to intensify during the next 24 hours into a category 2 storm with an outside chance of climbing to “major” category 3 status on early Friday. Landfall is expected later Friday night somewhere near the western part of Florida’s Panhandle and there can be some weakening in the last few hours before Isaias reaches the Gulf coast. Regardless, Isaias will be a dangerous hurricane with significant storm surge along the Gulf coast, damaging winds, and flooding rains.
After landfall, impacts of Isaias will continue to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Saturday and all the way to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US on Sunday where rain is likely and it can be heavy at times. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel will make a dramatic right turn and bring rain and wind to southern California and northern Baja, and its vast moisture field will push all the into the northern Rocky Mountain States where it may be cold enough to produce accumulating snow. Tropical Storm Simon is likely to become a hurricane and turn into Mexico with its moisture field likely headed to the southwestern and south-central states.
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All eyes are now on Hurricane Isaias – the first hurricane this season in the Atlantic Basin and the latest first hurricane in more than one hundred years. With favorable environmental conditions headed by very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30 degrees Celsius, Isaias is likely to climb to a strong category 2 status in the near term, and a “major” category 3 classification cannot be completely ruled out. Landfall is likely to occur late Friday somewhere in the region of Mobile Bay and there can be some weakening just before landfall.
Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and high storm surge will take place along the central Gulf coast and severe weather will become a risk on Friday night and Saturday in the Deep South: especially, to the right of the northward-moving storm track. After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield likely moving as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US with some heavy rain on the table around here by later in the weekend.
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The tropics are alive and well and we now have a named tropical storm, Isaias, over the southwestern Gulf of America where water temperatures are near 30 degrees (C)...plenty capable of supporting a late season hurricane. TS Isaias is very likely to become the Atlantic Basin’s first hurricane of the season and can hit the central Gulf coast on Friday night or early Saturday...perhaps as a cat 2 hurricane. While landfall is likely to be in the region between southeast Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle, all Gulf residents from Texas to Florida should closely monitor this system.
After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield possibly moving as far as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by later in the weekend. Elsewhere on the tropical scene, Hurricane Rachel over the eastern Pacific is currently churning to the west-northwest; however, it will take a drastic turn to the northeast in coming days and head towards the northern Baja California region with impacts on the way for much of the western US including an added contribution to snow in the Northern Rocky Mountain States.
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