Several inches of snow will pile up this weekend across a large part of the Midwest and Great Lakes (where they are still reeling from some intense lake-effect snow bands) and another winter storm will hit the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US on Tuesday. The best chance for significant snow on Tuesday will be across the interior sections of the northeastern states and heavy rain is the main threat along coastal areas from southern NJ to the Carolinas. The I-95 corridor will likely be in a battle zone period for awhile on Tuesday with some accumulating snow and ice possible at the front end, but a changeover to rain is likely; especially, in the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
Read More
The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will begin with a major Great Lakes snow event from Thursday to Friday and an Great Lakes/Midwest snowstorm this weekend and it could end with a White Christmas in many parts of the country. Two of the factors that have been highlighted here, likely leading to a cold and active stretch of weather, include an unusual early season stratospheric warming event and the likely movement of a tropical disturbance into a location that favors colder-than-normal conditions across a large part of the nation. Both of these phenomena – stratospheric warming and tropical forcing – will likely lead to a “buckling” of the polar jet stream which can lead to the unleashing of multiple Arctic air masses from northern Canada into the US (with intense cold in the table), and an activation of the southern branch of the jet stream which will likely produce multiple snow/ice threats.
Read More
It is looking like a cold Turkey Day across the Mid-Atlantic region with well below-normal temperatures following the mid-week passage of a strong cold front. A secondary cold front arrives later Thursday, and winds will increase markedly on Thursday night and Friday behind this second frontal passage to go along with the colder-than-normal conditions. The chill will stick around right into the upcoming weekend throughout the northeastern part of the country. In terms of snow, this late week Arctic air outbreak will be the catalyst for another Great Lakes snow event in those areas just downstream of the still relatively warm waters and, in some cases, it may be intense with substantial lake-effect snow accumulations. Looking to the weekend, a new storm system could bring significant snowfall to portions of the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and again the Great Lakes region.
Read More
The weather in Dallas, Texas had been rainy, and the weather forecast was for more rain on November 22nd, 1963. If the forecast had turned out to be correct with more rain on that fateful day, then that would have likely meant that a plexiglass bubble top would have been used on President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 Lincoln Convertible on a planned motorcade through the Dallas metro region. But the weather cleared unexpectedly, the protective top was removed from the car, and shots rang out in the early afternoon hours at Dealey Plaza killing the 35th President and seriously wounding Texas Governor John Connally.
Read More
There are signals that continue to point to an upcoming cold weather pattern for the central and eastern states as the early part of the winter season gets underway. These signs come from such diverse places as the stratosphere over the North Pole (re: Stratospheric Warming), the stratosphere over the tropics (re: QBO), and the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (re: MJO).
To begin, it appears as though there will be a “Stratospheric Warming” event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere in coming days which is quite a rare occurrence for this early stage of the winter season. In fact, it appears there have been only two Stratospheric Warming events in recent history that took place during the month of November...2000 and 1968...and in both of those years the month of December was quite cold across the nation. One atmospheric phenomenon that supports the idea of one (or more) “Stratospheric Warming” event(s) this winter season is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) which is a changing wind anomaly in the tropical lower stratosphere. When an “easterly” or “negative” phase of the QBO is combined with La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean – both of which represent the current situation - there is a strong tendency for an increase in “Stratospheric Warming” events and the disruption of the polar vortex. This particular teleconnection was one of the factors highlighted in the ”2025-2026 Winter Outlook” issued back in October.
Additionally, there is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affects the weather patterns across the globe. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds and rain that traverses the planet in the tropics and - depending on its location and the time of the year - it can contribute to colder-than-normal weather patterns across the central and eastern US.
Read More
It has been quite dry in the Mid-Atlantic region during the past several weeks with below-normal rainfall so far during the month of November, and this current dry stretch has come after the drier-than-normal months of September and October. While not a heavy rain event, low pressure will bring some beneficial rainfall to portions of the Mid-Atlantic region from late today into late tonight with up to half an inch possible in some locations. And, with a cold, dry air mass in place, the precipitation could be a mix of snow, sleet and rain in some spots or even “all” snow for awhile; especially, in those inland, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, minor snow accumulations of a couple of inches are possible by early tomorrow across places like central PA, northeastern PA, and in the interior sections of northern New Jersey.
Read More
It has been quite dry in the Mid-Atlantic region during the past several weeks with below-normal rainfall so far during November, and this dry spell followed drier-than-normal months of September and October. While not expecting a heavy rain event, low pressure will bring some welcomed rainfall to portions of the Mid-Atlantic region from later Tuesday into Tuesday night with the highest totals likely along and south of the PA/MD border. And, with a cold, dry air mass in place, the rain could be mixed with snow at times in some of the suburbs north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor. Farther inland, there can even be some minor accumulation amounts of an inch or two in, for example, the region between State College and Scranton in upstate Pennsylvania.
Read More
An Arctic air mass that originated near the North Pole has infiltrated the eastern states today and it will have an impact all the way down to southern Florida by Tuesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday morning are likely to bottom out in the 30’s across the central part of the Sunshine State and the 40’s in southern Florida. At the same time, many suburban locations along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will feature the first hard freeze of the season with overnight lows well down in the 20’s in many spots. There is accumulating snow to go along with this early week Arctic blast with favored areas including the Great Lakes, interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, and the central Appalachians where a vigorous upper-level low is helping to destabilize the atmosphere in a big way.
While there will likely continue to be colder-than-normal temperatures across the northeastern states during the second half of the week, this winter-like pattern does not look like it’ll continue through November. In fact, there are signs for warmer-than-normal conditions to cover much of the nation from next week into the following week and it may include one or more severe weather outbreaks as well. Looking farther down the road, numerous signals point to a sustained colder-than-normal period to start the winter season as we transition into the month of December.
Read More
Fifty years have passed since a major storm over the Great Lakes helped to sink the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior taking the lives of all 29 crew members on November 10th, 1975. When launched on June 7, 1958, it was the largest ship on North America's Great Lakes, and to this day she remains the largest to have sunk there. The Edmund Fitzgerald was in the worst possible location during the worst weather of the ferocious storm. The wind and waves from the west hit the freighter broadside as it tried to flee south to safety in Whitefish Bay. The Edmund Fitzgerald was loaded with about 26,000 tons of taconite pellets on November 9th, 1975, at Superior, Wisconsin and was bound for Detroit, Michigan when the storm hit.
Read More
An Arctic air mass that had its origins right near the North Pole will invade the eastern US early next week and there will be impacts felt all the way down to Florida. This will be the coldest air mass so far this season and many spots in the eastern states will experience their first hard freeze of the fall. A vigorous upper-level low will accompany this Arctic blast causing widespread unstable conditions and the result will likely be accumulating snow across some of the higher elevation Appalachian Mountains, and just downstream of the Great Lakes in those usual “favored” areas. And given an expected widespread area of unstable conditions, snow showers are even on the table for the immediate I-95 corridor from later Monday into Monday night. Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like there will be any sustained warmup across the northeastern part of the nation following this early next Arctic air outbreak with additional cold shots to follow into mid-month.
Read More
