A low pressure system that produced some beneficial rain and snow across California on Wednesday will ride along the newly activated sub-tropical jet stream and re-emerge over the south-central states early this weekend. Warm and humid air will flow northward into this system from the Gulf, and this will help to intensify and expand the storm’s precipitation shield...all good news for the Deep South where it has been quite dry in recent weeks. The influx of warm and humid air will also help to destabilize the atmosphere, leading to a severe weather threat by later Saturday and Saturday night in portions of the south-central US. This system will then push eastward and head towards the eastern seaboard on Sunday potentially bringing some mixed precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region which will be on the northern fringes of its moisture field. Much milder weather will follow across the northeastern states by the middle of next week.
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The polar jet has dominated the scene in recent weeks across North America resulting in numerous Arctic air masses being transported from western Canada into the northeastern states, but changes are underway as the sub-tropical jet is now showing plenty of life. This changing weather pattern will result in milder conditions across the northeastern states and some much-needed precipitation across the western and southern states after an extended dry stretch. The rejuvenated sub-tropical jet stream is pouring moisture today into southern California while an intensifying surface low pressure spins just off the San Francisco coastline. This system will produce some rain in low lying areas of the Golden State during the next 24 hours or so and significant accumulating snow in the mountains of eastern California.
By the early part of the weekend, this same low-pressure system will re-emerge over the south-central states and Gulf moisture will feed into its southeastern flank. As such, the moisture field will expand - good news for the Deep South where it has been dry - and the risk of severe weather will likely be put back in play in some areas. This system will then move in a general eastward direction and it can have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region by the latter part of the weekend with mixed precipitation on the table. Much milder weather will follow in Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later next week after the passage of this storm system off the eastern seaboard.
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The polar jet has dominated the scene in recent weeks typically extending all the way from western Canada into the northeastern US, but the sub-tropical jet is starting to show some life. This change in the overall weather pattern raises the prospects for moderation in temperatures across the northeastern states, some well-needed precipitation across many of the western states, and for the formation of storm systems that take a southern route across the southern states. By mid-week, a storm will head into California with some rainfall in low-lying areas and snow for mountainous areas, and then this low pressure system will re-emerge over the south-central states by the early part of the weekend...all of which will be aided by an activated sub-tropical jet stream.
The southern storm system will take a turn to the northeast later in the weekend and head towards the Ohio Valley, but it will become increasingly influenced by strong ridging centered over the Hudson Bay region of Canada. As such, the northward progression of the surface low will grind to a halt over the Ohio Valley and the action will shift to the east so that by the end of the weekend, strong low pressure is liable to be located somewhere near the eastern seaboard. Temperatures may be borderline later this weekend in the I-95 corridor so this region could become a “battle zone” with respect to precipitation type with snow favored to the north and west and rain to the south and east.
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An Arctic air mass will plunge into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US this weekend moving almost directly southward from the frozen tundra region of eastern Canada. Actually, this incoming Arctic air mass had its origins several days ago on the other side of the North Pole and was transported into North America from Siberia in a “cross-polar” overall wind pattern. The cold front at the leading edge of this bitter cold air mass will be quite active with strong support in the upper part of the atmosphere. As a result, numerous snow showers are likely on Friday night, and there can be bursts of heavier snow mixing into the picture...small accumulations and slick spots on the roadways are on the table. In addition to the bitter cold this weekend, biting and potentially damaging winds will become a major factor with gusts to 50+ mph raising the prospects for power outages in some areas. The combination of bitter cold air and powerful winds will result in dangerously low wind chill levels from later Saturday to early Sunday with apparent temperatures well below zero at times in many areas.
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An Arctic air mass is headed to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US for the weekend with its origins on the Siberian side of the North Pole. This Arctic blast will be directly discharged to us from eastern Canada as compared with the more conventional “northwest-to-southeast” route that travels over the Great Lakes. The cold front at the leading edge of this bitter cold air mass will be quite active with strong support in the upper part of the atmosphere, likely leading to some accumulating snow on Friday afternoon and evening, and perhaps a few snow squalls will mix into the picture. In addition to the bitter cold, biting and potentially damaging winds will become a major factor on both weekend days with gusts of 50+ mph producing dangerously low wind chill levels of well below zero in many locations.
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Solar cycle 25 has potentially passed through its maximum phase during the latter part of 2025 (don’t really know for sure until after the fact), but it continues to be very active time with lots of sunspot activity in recent weeks. One particular sunspot region known officially as AR4366 has grown rapidly in recent days and it has become the most active sunspot of solar cycle 25. This sunspot region is now more than ten times wider than Earth and is moving into a position that more directly faces our planet. The rapid growth of AR4366 has made the sunspot region unstable and it has indeed unleashed dozens of solar flares during the past few days. More explosions are quite likely and - given its movement in the near-term - all eyes are closely monitoring the situation.
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It was a little past 1 AM on February 3rd, 1959 when American musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and J.P. “The Big Bopper” Richardson were killed in a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa along with pilot Roger Peterson. Weather conditions were certainly contributing factors in the plane crash as there was poor visibility on that cold night with snow blowing across the runway. Hours before, Holly and his tour mates were on the eleventh night of their “Winter Dance Party” tour through the snow-covered Midwest. It was a Monday and a school night, but 1,100 teenagers crammed into the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa for two sold out shows with the second one ending around midnight. The event later became known as “The Day the Music Died” after singer-songwriter Don McLean referred to it as such in his 1971 song “American Pie” which paid homage to the tragedy of February 3rd, 1959.
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Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning suggesting there will be six more weeks of winter, and I certainly have faith in all Pennsylvania prognosticators. One thing is for sure...the next 7 days will feature more in the way of well below-normal temperatures, and the upcoming weekend will be bitterly cold across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with a direct discharge of Arctic air from eastern Canada. The Arctic front at the leading edge of this brutally cold air mass can produce snow showers and squalls on Friday, and powerful winds will add to the misery on both weekend days. The big cities from DC-to-Boston will likely experience single digit lows once again during the weekend and wind chills will be at dangerously low levels on both days.
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The bitter cold weather pattern continues across the eastern states during the next few days with significant impacts reaching all the way down to southern Florida. In fact, the temperature will drop to near freezing in Miami by Sunday morning and zero-degree overnight lows are on the table during the next couple of nights in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor. In addition to the cold, there will be explosive cyclogenesis this weekend near the east coast with biggest impacts from storm system likely to be across portions of Virginia, the Carolinas, and eastern New England as well. The I-95 region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will not go unscathed with a noticeable increase in winds from later Saturday into Sunday and there can be some snow with small accumulations on the table.
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The next few days will produce some of the worst of the cold for the Mid-Atlantic region with overnight lows way down in single digits or even near the zero-degree mark. Some record low temperatures are likely during this 3-day bitter cold spell and there can be some record low high temperatures as well with afternoon highs generally confined to the teens in many spots. Later this weekend, a big push of Arctic will be into the Southeast US and Florida can experience near freezing temperatures all the way to Miami by Sunday morning (watch for falling iguanas).
On the storm front, low pressure will develop near the Southeast US coastline on Saturday and then dramatically intensify as it moves over the western Atlantic Ocean somewhere to the east of the southern Mid-Atlantic region. The central pressure of this weekend storm could drop to similar levels as a category 2 or even category 3 hurricane and winds will become quite powerful. At this point, it appears the biggest impact from the weekend storm system will be confined to places like eastern North Carolina, southern Virginia, and the along coastal sections farther up the coast (e.g., New Jersey, Delmarva)…still a few days to go so stay tuned.
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