Artificial intelligence (AI) is a collection of technologies that allow computers to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, and it is increasingly impacting the world of weather forecasting. The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) has made strides with its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) as it has recently become fully operational and is now run side-by-side with its traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). According to the ECMWF, the AIFS has outperformed the physics-based model for many measures including, for example, tropical cyclone tracks. In addition to the ECMWF AIFS, there are at least four other known “A.I. trained” weather models including NOAA/Google GraphCast, Microsoft’s Aurora, NVIDIA’s FourCast, and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather.
Read More
An on-going stratospheric warming event that began in late February increases the chance for additional cold air outbreaks as we wind down the month of March from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, the typical lag time between a stratospheric warming event over the polar region and its impact on US temperature patterns suggests there may very well be cold air outbreaks to deal with in this part of the country at least until the middle of April. As it turns out, big-league baseball gets underway in earnest in one week’s time on Thursday, March 27th, and the early part of the season may feature plenty of cold weather games thanks in large part to the on-going big-league stratospheric warming event. In addition, the influx of colder-than-normal air masses in coming weeks keeps hope alive across the northern states for those wishing for more snow...yes, even though spring season is now officially underway.
Read More
March is known to feature some crazy and surprising weather and the 1958 blizzard that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic region between March 18th and 23rd was indeed rather unexpected. In general, forecasts on the morning of March 18th had no mention of snow. This was in an era before computer forecast models were being utilized by weather forecasters on a daily basis and it was even before satellite imagery existed which could aid in the forecast. By afternoon on that particular day, the light rain had changed into huge, wet snowflakes and - for the next few days - history was being made.
Read More
Numerous ingredients are coming together for what is likely to be a multi-day severe weather event from the central US to the east coast during the period from later Friday to Sunday night. These ingredients include not just one, but two strong upper-level lows, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, an influx of warm, humid air on the storm’s front side, and a surface low pressure system that will deepen to rarely ever seen barometric pressure levels as it moves from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. All severe weather parameters are on the table during this multi-day event including swaths of intense and damaging winds, strong tornadoes, hail, and torrential rainfall that can result in flash flooding.
Read More
The combination of an intense upper-level low, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, strong southerly low-level flow of warm, moist air, and a deepening surface low pressure system will likely lead to a severe weather outbreak from later Friday into Friday night. Indeed, this threat of severe weather may continue right through the upcoming weekend as it shifts slowly to the east reaching the Atlantic seaboard by the latter part of the weekend. The deepening surface low pressure system may reach central pressures not often seen in this part of the nation which will result in a very strong pressure gradient potentially leading to widespread damaging winds. In addition, this unfolding atmospheric setup can lead to some strong tornado activity from later Friday into Saturday across portions of the central and eastern US.
Read More
A “blood moon” total lunar eclipse will be visible across the U.S. from the night of Thursday, March 13th into the early morning hours of Friday, March 14th. This phenomenon occurs when the entire moon falls within the darkest part of Earth’s shadow in a color-shifting process that causes the lunar surface to appear red-orange; hence, the nickname “blood moon”. This kind of celestial event hasn’t happened since November 2022 and won’t happen again until March of 2026. It will be visible to the naked eye, but binoculars or a telescope can certainly add to the overall enjoyment of viewing the lunar eclipse…”totality” will last for about an hour.
Read More
Ingredients are in place for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity later today into early tonight along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor which will include downpours and the possibility of damaging wind gusts. In addition, a few isolated tornadoes are on the table later today in the Mid-Atlantic region and an enhanced risk of tornadoes will take place farther to the south from southeastern Virginia into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, in the storm’s cold sector, there are blizzard conditions today across portions of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin where 60+ mph winds can cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow.
Read More
Ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak today and tonight with its focus on the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast. There is a high risk of damaging wind gusts in this scenario and tornadoes are certainly on the table with the possibility of a few strong ones. This threat shifts to the east coast on Wednesday where damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, and even isolated tornadoes will be a possibility from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast US.
Read More
The month of March is now underway and it certainly can feature multiple severe weather outbreaks as the air becomes increasingly warm and humid across the southern states at the same time colder-than-normal air masses continue to push south and east from Canada into the US. The ingredients are falling into place for severe weather during each of the next three days as indeed colder-than-normal air from the western states will push eastward into a warmer-than-normal air mass that today will be centered over the central states. The main threat zone for severe weather today is likely to extend from Texas-to-Oklahoma-to-Kansas and then an enhanced risk is likely on Tuesday centered over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley region. Spring-like storm conditions will reach the eastern states on Wednesday with windy, warmer weather, soaking rainfall, and the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
Read More
Today’s weather features above-normal temperatures across much of the nation and the next couple of days will remain on the mild side in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures approaching 60 degrees in some areas. We are about to flip the calendar from February to March and it appears quite likely that there will be occasional cold air intrusions from Canada into the US during the next few weeks. Supporting evidence for additional cold air outbreaks during the month of March include the strong likelihood of a “disrupted” stratospheric polar vortex with significant warming near the North Pole by the middle of March and the movement of a tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). These occasional cold air outbreaks will contribute to an overall active weather pattern in the month of March and likely set the stage multiple severe weather outbreaks. In addition, the continuing cold air intrusions will certainly keep hope alive for snow lovers with multiple upcoming chances; especially, across interior higher elevation locations of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
Read More
