May gets underway on Friday, and it looks like a cooler-than-normal pattern will dominate in the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of the month. Multiple cooler than normal air masses are likely to push into the north-central states from central Canada during those next couple of weeks and these will ultimately spread to the south and east and encompass the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. A favorable pattern for the transport of cooler-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US will feature a persistent upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes as well as some high-latitude blocking up across northeastern Canada and Greenland. In addition to the expected cooler conditions, multiple rain events are on the table during the next couple of weeks beginning with one from later today into early Thursday which will impact the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A combination of ingredients will come together later today and tonight to enhance the risk of severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley region with a focus on the region from Arkansas to Indiana. One of the contributing factors in today’s severe weather threat is an active jet stream that has intensified in recent days across the central and southern US in an atmospheric response to the initial phase of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the south and east on Tuesday mainly to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. In fact, the threat of severe weather will likely continue well into the month of May as additional cold air masses are destined to drop southeastward from central Canada into the northern US. This evolving weather pattern will produce below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation from late April into at least the middle of May and multiple rain events are likely to be included from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard.
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As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is likely to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and all signs continue to point to the increase of water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent days, but some very warm water lurks just beneath the surface, and it is “bubbling” up to the top.
The development of El Nino in the tropical Pacific is actually having some current effects on the upper air flow across the continental US with a more favorable environment for severe weather outbreaks and better opportunities for rain from the Rocky Mountain States to the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, the combination of an El Nino episode in the Pacific Ocean and an area of cooler-than-normal water in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region may result in below-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the summer and fall seasons. Should El Nino continue into the 2026-2027 winter season - and odds are good - it would also have big implications for the weather across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.
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The unseasonably warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue for one more day and many spots today will challenge their daily high temperature record. It’ll remain on the warm side on Friday and Saturday, but not quite the record-challenging warmth experienced here during the past couple of days. The warmer weather pattern breaks down over the weekend as a strong surface cold front heads toward the eastern states at the same time intense high pressure ridging along the coast slides to the east.
The front will bring with it a good chance of much-needed shower activity late Saturday night and Sunday morning and it’ll usher in a much cooler air mass to close out the weekend and start the new work week. In fact, temperatures late Monday night/early Tuesday are likely to drop way down to freezing or below in much of the Mid-Atlantic region which could prompt widespread frost and freeze warnings. Temperatures rebound noticeably by mid-week, but an overall pattern change will bring additional colder-than-normal air masses to the central and eastern states during late April/early May.
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Most have been waiting for this kind of warmup in the eastern states following several false starts this season, but this may end up being a little too much on the extreme side. Not only are daily high temperature records in jeopardy this week in the Mid-Atlantic region with 90+ degrees on the table, but a few spots could experience their highest April temperatures ever recorded although it will be tough to beat the heat wave of April 1976. This warmup should last well into the upcoming weekend, but there are strong signs that another chilly air outbreak is destined to reach the northeastern part of the country by early next week. In fact, there are signs that additional colder-than-normal air masses will impact the central and eastern states during the last week of April at the same time a teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO shifts into a colder-than-normal phase for this time of year.
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The number of named tropical storms in 2026 is likely to be slightly below normal in the Atlantic Basin due mainly to water temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching hurricane status, and 3.2 attaining “major” designation of category 3 or higher. Based on the overall analysis of current and forecasted atmospheric and oceanic conditions, I expect to see around 12 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season with about 6 of those reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps 2 to achieve “major” classification level.
Two important factors in this year’s tropical outlook include the expected development of an El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean featuring warmer-than-normal water, and colder-than-normal water in portions of the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region (MDR). Both sea surface temperature patterns would tend to inhibit tropical storm formation and intensification in the Atlantic Basin. In terms of summertime weather conditions across the continental US, I expect much of the nation to be cooler-than-normal and it is a mixed picture when it comes to precipitation with wetter-than-normal weather likely for the northeastern states and generally drier-than-normal conditions across the central states.
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The weather looks good...the countdown is on...and NASA is set to launch four astronauts on a 10-day flight around the moon, marking the first such mission since the Apollo era. If the countdown continues without a hitch, an Artemis II rocket will launch a crew of four this evening with a 2-hour window of opportunity beginning at 6:24 pm (ET). The astronauts will not land on the moon this time but are scheduled to fly around the far side in a maneuver reminiscent of Apollo 8 in 1968.
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Strong upper-level ridging that was parked over the Four Corner states in recent days has shifted to the east and this re-positioning will allow warm, moist air from the Gulf region to flow northward into the nation’s mid-section. One result of this changing weather pattern will be a much-increased chance of significant precipitation all the from Texas to the Great Lakes, and this can include strong-to-severe thunderstorms at mid-week. Farther north, there will be another influx of cold, Canadian air and this can lead to accumulating snow and perhaps significant icing across portions of the Northern Plains and Great Lakes later in the week.
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Below-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across much of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this La Nina episode is about to enter “ENSO-neutral” status, and then likely flip to El Nino conditions by the early part of the summer (tropical) season. A change from La Nina to El Nino across the equatorial Pacific Ocean can have big implications for the upcoming Atlantic Basin tropical season. Indeed, warmer-than-normal water associated with an El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific is often an inhibiting factor for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. This is due to increased wind shear in the atmosphere; especially over the Caribbean Sea during typical El Nino summer seasons, and this inhibits the development and intensification of tropical storms. A second potential inhibiting factor for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin this summer is the chance that colder-than-normal water will develop across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean according to some longer-range forecast models.
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March is known to feature some crazy and surprising weather and the 1958 blizzard that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic region between March 18th and 23rd was indeed rather unexpected. In general, forecasts on the morning of March 18th had no mention of snow. This was in an era before computer forecast models were being utilized by weather forecasters on a daily basis and it was even before satellite imagery existed which could aid in the forecast. By afternoon on that particular day, the light rain had changed into huge, wet snowflakes and - for the next few days - history was being made.
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