The Northern Hemisphere saw its first hurricane of the season on Monday in the eastern Pacific Ocean, but overall, the 2025 tropical season is off to a relatively quiet start. In fact, there are reports that this is the latest time since 1993 for the first hurricane to develop in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, the western Pacific Ocean hasn’t seen a named storm so far this tropical season and there are (unconfirmed) reports that this may be the latest time ever for that to take place. In the Atlantic Basin, it is still quite early in the season and there has been no activity so far, but there is the possibility of a tropical system in about a week to ten days or so across the southwestern Gulf of America or northwestern Caribbean Sea.
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With thousands of lives on the line, there is no doubt that the weather forecast made for the D-Day invasion in Normandy, France during World War II was the most important of all-time and one of the most difficult as well given the lack of sophisticated forecasting tools that we enjoy in today’s world. The first satellite image was still nearly sixteen years away (TIROS on April 1, 1960) and reliable computer forecast models were still decades away. Friday, June 6th, marks the 81st anniversary of the D-Day invasion and the weather forecast for that historic event makes for quite an interesting story in what turned out to be a pivotal moment in world history. Years of detailed planning went into the D-Day invasion on June 6, 1944, but success hinged on one element that no military commander could control — the weather. Defying his colleagues, Captain James Martin Stagg advised General Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower to postpone the invasion of Normandy by one day from June 5th to June 6th because of uncertain weather conditions in a weather forecast that changed the course of World War II and altered world history.
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Mount Etna erupted on Monday, surprising tourists and sending them fleeing to safety as huge plumes of ash and debris shot out of the volcano and into the sky, according to news reports. A pyroclastic flow, or avalanche of burning ash, crashed down the slopes of the volcano’s southeast crater, according to Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in Toulouse reported that the ash cloud had reached an estimated height of 21,000 feet. Despite the many videos of people fleeing down Mt. Etna during the eruption, no injuries or fatalities have resulted or been reported so far.
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The 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season officially gets underway on Sunday, June 1st, and there are signs that the initial threat could come as early as ten days or so from now (i.e., June 8, 9, 10th time frame). A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO appears to be foreshadowing the potential of tropical troubles in this time frame as it transitions into a “phase” that is generally quite favorable for activity in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a second favorable sign may be the evolution of the upper-level pattern of highs and lows across North America which may feature strong ridging over southeastern Canada in about ten days or so. A strong ridge in this part of North America is often favorable this time of year for an “undercutting” tropical system in the southwestern Atlantic, Gulf of America, or Caribbean Sea where sea surface temperatures are generally warmer-than-normal.
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Recent rain events in the Mid-Atlantic region have helped to alleviate drought conditions that began to develop last fall and more beneficial rainfall is on the way with two storm systems. Clouds will lower and thicken today as high pressure shifts off to the east of here and low pressure pushes into the Ohio Valley. A new low pressure system will form by early tomorrow near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it will produce periods of rain for the mid-week and quite cool conditions as a low-level ocean flow of air forms in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In fact, temperatures may end up being some twenty degrees below-normal on Wednesday with the influence of the still chilly western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front then pushes through the region on Thursday night with a few showers and stalls in the area on Friday. Another low pressure system will likely ride up along that stalled-out boundary zone potentially bringing another round of soaking and beneficial rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region from late Friday into Saturday.
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It was during the height of the Cold War and a powerful solar storm could have led to a disastrous military conflict between the US and Soviet Union if not for the early efforts of the US Air Force to monitor solar activity. On May 23rd, 1967, a solar storm took place that was so powerful, it jammed radar and radio communications in polar regions and the US Air Force actually began to prepare aircraft for war thinking the nation’s surveillance radars were being jammed by the Soviet Union. Fortunately, space weather forecasters in the military suspected there might be another cause and they relayed information about the possibility that a solar storm could have been the reason for the disrupted radar and radio communications. As it turned out, this information was enough to keep the planes on the ground and the US avoided a potential nuclear weapon exchange with the Soviet Union.
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It has been unusually dry across much of the Mid-Atlantic region during the past several months, but prospects for getting back to normalcy are looking better and better in what has become an overall wetter weather pattern. In fact, today features an impressive plume of tropical moisture that is flowing right into the Mid-Atlantic region from the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and beneficial rain is falling in most areas. This widespread area of moisture is supported aloft by a vigorous and slow-moving upper-level trough of low pressure and, as such, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. After a brief lull in the action later this week, another low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes and it’ll renew the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Friday into Saturday. This active weather pattern looks likely to continue through the remainder of the month of May and there will be additional cold air outbreaks as well including potentially one for the Mid-Atlantic region during the Memorial Day weekend.
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The number of named tropical storms in 2025 is likely to be nearly-normal in the Atlantic Basin which would be lower than the totals of last summer’s active season. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching (minimal) hurricane status, and 3.2 reaching “major” classification (baseline period 1991-2020). Based on the overall analysis of current and forecasted conditions, I expect around 15 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season with about 7 reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps 3 to achieve “major” classification level.
Three important factors in this year’s tropical outlook include an expected relatively neutral signal in the tropical Pacific Ocean with respect to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), only moderately warm water temperatures anticipated in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean, and a stubborn pocket of colder-than-normal waters off the west coast of Africa. While the lack of any kind of significant El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) in the tropical Pacific typically favors an active tropical season in the Atlantic Basin, the water temperatures in both the breeding grounds region of the Atlantic Ocean and those just off the west coast of Africa should act as a counterbalance.
In terms of summertime weather expected across the continental US, there is an especially strong signal for hot and dry conditions across the nation’s heartland from Texas-to-North Dakota which is being primed by an unusually dry spring in much of that part of the nation. Also, there is the potential of wetter-than-normal weather in much of the eastern US to go along with nearly normal to slightly below-normal temperatures and, in the western US, nearly normal temperatures and rainfall amounts.
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The risk is high today for a severe weather outbreak across the Tennessee Valley, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-South and this threat includes the possibility of multiple strong (EF-3+) tornadoes. Numerous ingredients are coming together to result in a widespread severe weather outbreak later today and tonight including strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, a clash of air masses with cold, dry air to the north and west and warm, humid air to the east and south, and a strong surface low pressure system with its attendant cold front. In addition to the severe weather, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way for much of this same part of the nation from later today through the first half of the weekend with widespread flooding a serious concern.
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An on-going active weather pattern will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight across the middle of the country and there can be isolated tornadoes as well. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will become enhanced across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley and, this time, multiple strong tornadoes will be on the table. In this same part of the nation, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way from later tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with widespread serious flooding a real concern.
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