An Arctic air mass that had its origins right near the North Pole will invade the eastern US early next week and there will be impacts felt all the way down to Florida. This will be the coldest air mass so far this season and many spots in the eastern states will experience their first hard freeze of the fall. A vigorous upper-level low will accompany this Arctic blast causing widespread unstable conditions and the result will likely be accumulating snow across some of the higher elevation Appalachian Mountains, and just downstream of the Great Lakes in those usual “favored” areas. And given an expected widespread area of unstable conditions, snow showers are even on the table for the immediate I-95 corridor from later Monday into Monday night. Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like there will be any sustained warmup across the northeastern part of the nation following this early next Arctic air outbreak with additional cold shots to follow into mid-month.
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An active weather pattern over the next several days will feature a powerful wind event on Wednesday night across many northeastern states and then an Arctic invasion will take place across the eastern states early next week with impacts being felt all the way from Florida-to-Maine. The powerful winds on Wednesday night will be associated with an intensifying low-pressure system that forms along a strong cold frontal boundary zone, and 50-60 mph wind gusts are on the table for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US…some power outages are possible.
By the end of the upcoming weekend, another strong cold front will slide across the Great Lakes and into the eastern states, and this front will be at the leading edge of the coldest air mass of the season so far. Low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary zone, and it will be supported aloft by a vigorous low which will drop south and east into the central Appalachians. This combination of a strong surface low and a powerful upper-level low will ensure accumulating snow in many areas including the Great Lakes and interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. In fact, given the high levels of instability expected around here early next week, and the well below-normal temperatures, snow shower activity is certainly on the table all the way into the immediate I-95 corridor.
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An active weather pattern over the next several days will feature a powerful wind event on Wednesday night across many northeastern states and then an Arctic air mass will invade the eastern states early next week. The powerful winds on Wednesday night will be associated with an intensifying low-pressure system that forms along a strong cold frontal boundary zone and 60+ mph wind gusts are on the table for some locations. By the end of the upcoming weekend, another strong cold front will slide into the eastern states, and this system will usher in the coldest air of the season so far with the first hard freeze in many spots and accumulating snow will be possible across the Great Lakes, interior sections of the northeastern states.
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There will be as many as three cold fronts to deal with in the northeastern part of the nation during the next week or so, but the third system will be the most important and is destined to arrive late in the upcoming weekend. The first cold front comes through on Wednesday night primarily on the dry side and it turns slightly cooler behind it on Thursday. The second cold front then arrives at the end of the work week likely producing some shower activity from late Friday night into early Saturday; however, temperatures will hardly change at all this weekend following its passage. It is the third cold front that arrives on Sunday night that will be very noticeable as it is at the leading edge of an Arctic air mass…the coldest air so far this season. This cold air outbreak early next week may be accompanied by some early season accumulating snow across the Great Lakes, interior sections of the Northeast US and New England.
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3I/ATLAS was discovered by telescope on July 1st, 2025, and it has been classified as interstellar because its trajectory is hyperbolic meaning it is not gravitationally bound to our solar system. It will pass closest to the sun later today, at about 1.4 astronomical units (AU) or about 130 million miles, and then make its nearest approach to Earth on December 19th, 2025, at about 1.8 AU or about 170 million miles. NASA has been tracking the object for months, noting unusual movements and energy signatures that don’t match the behavior of typical comets. It is the third interstellar object ever recorded, quite likely the oldest at 7+ billion years old, largest, and fastest moving, and this is the first time through our solar system.
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Hurricane Melissa has reached the southwestern coast of Jamaica as a category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. The hurricane has turned to the northeast and should continue on this path during the next few days with an accelerated motion. After hitting Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa will cross over eastern Cuba – likely as a major hurricane – and then to the southeastern part of the Bahama Island chain in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Thursday, Melissa could come very close to the island of Bermuda or move directly over as it picks up some forward speed and continues on a northeasterly direction...eventually bringing it out to the open waters of the North Atlantic by the upcoming weekend.
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Melissa is now a category 5 “major” hurricane located just to the south of Jamaica and continues to drift to the west over some very warm water of the central Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Melissa will begin a gradual turn to the northwest and then north by later tonight and likely come ashore on Jamaica’s southern coast on Tuesday morning. After that, the hurricane will push in a northeasterly direction and pass over the eastern part of Cuba by early Wednesday – likely still as a major - and then likely the southeastern Bahama Islands by late Wednesday. By later Thursday, Melissa could come very close to the island of Bermuda as it picks up some forward speed and continues on a northeasterly direction...eventually bringing it out to the open waters of the North Atlantic.
Meanwhile, an active weather pattern over the continental US will feature a deepening upper-level trough by mid-week over the Tennessee Valley and this will help to spawn a strong surface-level storm system. This strong storm will likely produce a soaking event for the Mid-Atlantic region from later Wednesday through Thursday night with 2+ inches on the table, and onshore winds will be a noticeable factor as well. The rain may linger for a bit on Friday morning, but the bulk of Halloween Day should feature partial sunshine and quite windy and cool conditions.
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Tropical Storm Melissa continues to drift today over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and will likely do so for several days to come. There has been no intensification of the tropical system during the past 24 hours or so as it is in an area featuring strong westerly vertical wind shear. Wind shear in the general vicinity of the circulation center of Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to diminish over the upcoming weekend which should allow for intensification of the system into a minimal hurricane, and a strengthening to “major”, category 5 status is certainly on the table by early next week. Ultimately, this tropical system will take a turn to the north - likely crossing over central/eastern Cuba - on its way to the western Atlantic Ocean. An active weather pattern next week will feature a powerful jet streak, intense blocking in the atmosphere centered over Canada, plenty of colder-than-normal air, an intensifying upper-level trough over the central and eastern US, and Hurricane Melissa. There is quite likely going to be some kind of interaction between the inland upper-level trough and the western Atlantic Ocean hurricane, and a “late in the game” turn to the northwest by the tropical system cannot be completely ruled out.
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“Melissa” became the first named tropical storm of the year so far in the Caribbean Sea and it had been moving westward at a fairly rapid clip until just recently. A dramatic slowdown has taken place with Tropical Storm Melissa as it has moved into an area with very weak winds in the atmosphere. The slow movement of TS Melissa may last for the next several days and it is occurring over some very warm water in the central Caribbean...fully capable of supporting further intensification. Environmental conditions will become quite supportive of intensification as well in coming days with overall wind shear likely to diminish. This combination of favorable water temperatures for intensification along with improving environmental conditions raises the chance that TS Melissa intensifies all the way to “major” hurricane status by late this weekend or early next week. Looking ahead to later next week, with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form just inland, there certainly can be some interaction between the inland trough and the western Atlantic tropical system…stay tuned; especially, if a resident in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/New England.
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The European model run on Monday morning produced some stunningly high rainfall amounts of a foot or more in much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the 5-day period ending on Saturday, November 1st. Meanwhile, the Canadian model run from Monday night featured what is likely to be a hurricane (Melissa) producing accumulating snow over some of the higher elevations of the Northeast US late next week after it shifts northwest towards the New England coastline and encounters an unusually cold air mass. While odds are against either of these scenarios coming to fruition, they do suggest to me that the models are correctly sniffing out the potential for some energetic weather from later next week into the following week and there are several ingredients likely to come into play for just such a pattern. The ingredients include a powerful jet streak that will push into the western US this weekend from the northern Pacific Ocean, intense blocking in the upper part of the atmosphere that is likely to develop across central Canada by the middle of next week, a cold air intrusion into the US from Canada, and a likely hurricane over the western Atlantic Ocean.
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