Low pressure is likely to rapidly intensify this weekend over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and it is a threat for heavy rainfall and strong winds along coastal sections of the Carolinas and potentially to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Whether this system becomes a named tropical storm is too early to say; however, the effects could be the same along parts of the eastern seaboard…namely with heavy rainfall and strong winds likely in the Saturday night to Monday time period. Some of the key players involved include strong high-pressure ridging which will set up over southeastern Canada and a cold front which will slide to the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later in the week and help to act as a catalyst for the intensification of low pressure.
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It is likely that Arctic sea ice extent has reached its minimum for the year which is slightly higher than last year’s level and well above the record minimum amount observed in 2012. Temperatures in the Arctic region during the just ended summer season continued to follow a very consistent pattern of recent years, measuring nearly normal to slightly colder than normal. It is the temperatures in the summer months of June, July, and August which are critical when it comes to Arctic sea ice extent as this is the melting season up in that part of the world. Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s; however, it has shown resiliency for the last dozen years or so both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to slightly below-normal levels in the summer season and warmer-than-normal conditions during the coldest nine months of the year is the increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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The Atlantic Basin is quite active with three tropical systems of note as we head towards the end of September. There is a newly named Tropical Storm Humberto situated to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, a likely-to-be named Imelda which is now located near the Dominican Republic, and a weakening Hurricane Gabrielle in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is the likely-to-be named Imelda that may be of most concern at this point as it could threaten the Bahamas this weekend and potentially has a chance of impacting the Southeast US.
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The Atlantic Basin is quite active as we head towards the end of September with three tropical systems currently on the playing field including a “major” Hurricane Gabrielle which is now racing off to the east-northeast and is no threat to the US. In fact, Hurricane Gabrielle could impact the Azores Islands and Portugal down the road in a weakened state after crossing over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the other two tropical systems pose more of a challenge in terms of forecasting their eventual paths and magnitudes. It appears quite likely that both systems will reach named tropical storm classification and potentially, both may climb to hurricane status. It also appears quite likely that these two systems will end up doing some sort of a dance around each other for awhile (“Fujiwhara effect”) and at least one may come uncomfortably close to the US east coast and we may not know the end of the story until we get ten or so days out from now.
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The last time a hurricane hit New England with hurricane-strength winds was Hurricane Bob on August 19, 1991. It made landfall in Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane, causing significant damage, loss of life, and coastal erosion across southern New England. For many decades prior, New England was directly hit by a hurricane on a regular basis averaging about one every 7 years or so. Yesterday, September 21, marked the 87th anniversary of one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history that struck Long Island and Southern New England. The storm has been referred to in different ways including "The Great New England Hurricane of 1938" or "The Long Island Express" or the "Yankee Clipper".
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season officially extends from June 1st to November 30th, and the climatological peak is right around the 10th of September. This year is quite unusual in that the climatological peak comes with no tropical activity whatsoever in the Atlantic Basin and the overall season is now below normal for this time of year. In fact, global activity across the entire northern hemisphere is below-normal and that breaks down to each of the oceans being quieter-than-normal (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian). One of the possible explanations for the relatively quiet tropical season across the globe is the dramatic cool down in sea surface temperatures from a year ago. Looking ahead, there is another half of the season to go for the Atlantic Basin - at least in terms of climatology - and signs point to a pickup in activity potentially beginning as soon as this weekend.
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At the end of the 19th century, America was beaming with confidence and feeling bigger and stronger than ever before. The city of Galveston, Texas was booming with a population of 37,000 residents on the east end of Galveston Island which runs about thirty miles in length and anywhere from one and a half to three miles in width. Its position on the harbor of Galveston Bay along the Gulf of Mexico made it the center of trade and the biggest city in Texas in the year 1900. A quarter of a century earlier, a nearby town was destroyed by a powerful hurricane and this object lesson was heeded by many Galveston residents and talks of a seawall to protect the city were quite prevalent. However, no seawall was built and sand dunes along the shore were actually cut down to fill low areas in the city, removing what little barrier there was to the Gulf of Mexico. This proved to be a fatal mistake for the city of Galveston in what nobody could foresee happening to this magical place that seemed destined to become the New York of the Gulf of Mexico.
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The month of August was not only quite a bit cooler-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region (coolest in 25 years in DC, 3rd coolest in 25 years for NYC), but it was also very dry as well in many areas. In fact, the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor saw virtually no rainfall during the last ten days of August and the month of September has started off rain-free as well. There is plenty of hope, however, that in the near-term there will be two chances for some welcome rainfall associated with two separate cold frontal systems. The first chance of showers and thunderstorms will come late Thursday and Thursday night with the initial cold front and then a second round of showers and thunderstorms is likely for late Saturday/Saturday night associated with cold front #2.
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On September 1st, 1859, a ferocious solar storm took place that impacted much of the planet. This ferocious solar storm is now known as the “Carrington Event”, named after the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, who witnessed the largest solar flare from his own private observatory which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth. Recent studies of solar storms have warned that these type of “Carrington Events” may not be quite as rare as once thought (e.g., Hayakawa et al). Many previous studies leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. A super storm of the same magnitude as the “Carrington Event” in today’s world would very likely have a much more damaging impact than it did in the 19th century potentially causing widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.
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The month of August has been quite kind in many parts of the nation with numerous cooler-than-normal air masses dropping into the US from Canada. A strong cold front pushed off the east coast earlier this week and set the stage for widespread cooler-than-normal conditions here at midweek that extend virtually from coast to coast. This air mass had its origins in the Arctic region and has resulted in more than one hundred tied or broken daily low temperature records on Wednesday and in Atlanta, Georgia, the low temperature today was 55 degrees which tied their monthly low temperature record. I expect to see another large number of stations on Thursday morning with record or near record low temperatures in the eastern US.
Looking ahead, the pattern will repeat later next week with another much cooler-than-normal air mass dropping into the US from Canada bringing a refreshing cool start to the month of September across the eastern half of the nation. This pattern has also been quite dry in parts of the nation including the Mid-Atlantic region and the next several days don’t offer much hope with respect to the chances of some soaking rainfall.
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