It was quite a scare when first discovered in 2004, but thousands of observations later, we now know that the asteroid known as Apophis will miss Earth when it makes its closest approach in April 2029. However, in the grand scheme of things in our vast universe, this will be a close call, and it’ll come so close that billions of people should be able to see it with their naked eyes. Interestingly, the closest flyby to Earth by Apophis will fall on “Friday the 13th” in April of 2029.
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While not everyone will get hit, the atmosphere is fueling up to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are on the table as well as torrential rainfall from this significant system with the greatest chance of flash flooding likely in the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., E PA, N NJ, NYC) and the greatest chance of severe weather likely in the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva). Multiple ingredients are coming together to raise the likelihood of this very active weather pattern for later today and tonight.
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Numerous ingredients will come together during the next couple of days to raise the possibility of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. In an overall pattern quite similar to a week ago, strong upper-level ridging is currently centered over the Rocky Mountain States, and the outer periphery of this system features northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes. Embedded within this northwesterly flow will be an intensifying upper-level jet streak on Tuesday that’ll drop to the south and east enhancing upper motion in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough of low pressure is currently positioned over the southeastern part of Canada, and it will add fuel to the fire by sending spokes of energy into the northeastern states during the next couple of days. Finally, not to be outdone by its upper-level counterparts, the surface level will get involved as low pressure will deepen over the Delmarva Peninsula on Tuesday and there will be a secondary surface low unfolding over western NY State.
All of these ingredients can result in severe thunderstorm activity during the next couple of days with a focus on Tuesday afternoon and evening and there can be torrential rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with 3+ inches on the table. The best chance of severe weather on Tuesday will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva), and the best chance of soaking rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., eastern PA, NJ, NYC), but some of these details still have to be worked out.
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July has been quite hot across much of the nation and, no doubt, there will be plenty of hot weather during the remainder of the month. However, July 2026 will certainly have a difficult time matching the extreme and sustained heat of July 1936. In fact, one of the most widespread and destructive heat waves ever recorded in the US took place in the summer of 1936 which fell right in the middle of arguably the hottest and driest decade ever for the nation.
The decade of the 1930’s is renowned for the “Great Depression” and the “Dust Bowl”, both of which caused calamitous human suffering in this country. Not only were huge numbers of crops destroyed by the heat and lack of moisture in the “Dust Bowl” era, but thousands of lives were lost as a result of the heat, drought and economic hardship. This extreme heat wave was particularly deadly in high population areas where air conditioning was still in the early stages of development. The heat wave experienced in 1936 began in late June, reached a peak in July, and didn’t really come to an end until September. Many of the all-time high temperature records that were set in the 1930’s in numerous cities and states still stand today.
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There is high risk of severe weather later today in the Mid-Atlantic region as several ingredients come together to enhance upward motion and destabilize the atmosphere. There were some showers around earlier today, but the late afternoon and evening hours will present the greatest risk for the severe weather. The primary hazards on the table include damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Showers and thunderstorms can linger on Wednesday; especially, along and to the south and east of the I-95 corridor as the cold front pushes towards the eastern seaboard. Refreshing air will follow the frontal passage on Wednesday night and great weather is destined for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Friday.
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Severe weather affected the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday, and another threat is on the way for later tomorrow. Not everyone will get hit by the strong storms, but ingredients are coming together for what looks like multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms...some of the storms can be severe and some of the rain can be heavy. Showers and thunderstorms can linger into mid-week; especially across the southern part of the Mid-Atlantic and then a refreshing air mass will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, there is an intensifying tropical system over the northern Gulf, and it is likely to reach named tropical storm status (would be Bertha) in the near term.
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There is the threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region as the overall weather pattern will result in high instability across the area. The pattern will feature an intense ridge of high pressure centered over the Rocky Mountain States with northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes/Northeast US. Often, this kind of flow results in “lines” or “complexes” of thunderstorms dropping to the south and east from the Great Lakes to the northeastern states and that is on the table for the first half of the weekend. The potential exists for damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, heavy rain and localized flash flooding as precipitable water amounts in the atmosphere will climb to quite high levels. Meanwhile, wildfire smoke from Canada will continue to be an issue as we slide into the end of the week, and it will dim the skies at times through Friday.
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The overall weather pattern may be setting up for a severe weather and heavy rain threat in the Mid-Atlantic region during the first half of the upcoming weekend. The pattern will feature an intense ridge of high pressure centered over the Rocky Mountain States by the weekend with northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes/Northeast US. Often times, this kind of flow results in “lines” or “complexes” of thunderstorms dropping to the south and east from the Great Lakes to the northeastern states and that is on the table for Saturday. The potential exists for heavy rain/flash flooding as well as precipitable water in the atmosphere will climb to high levels. The weekend threat will be preceded by hot weather that can see temperatures surge to near the century mark on Wednesday anywhere along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. One final note, wildfire smoke from Canada will likely drop south and east into the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days and it certainly can dim the skies at times.
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El Nino continues to intensify across most regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean with well above-normal water temperatures that continue to rise rather sharply in recent weeks. In fact, all indications suggest that the overall magnitude of this unfolding El Nino will rival some of the great ones in recent history including those in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. The warmer-than-normal water across the Pacific Ocean is likely to lead to a very active next couple of months in terms of overall tropical activity and even the Hawaiian Islands may be impacted by a direct hit.
At the same time, colder-than-normal water currently exists across what is known as the “Main Development Region” of the Atlantic Ocean in terms of tropical activity, and this inhibiting factor combined with El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will likely lead to a quieter-than-normal season in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears El Nino will not only have an important impact on the near-term tropical seasons but potentially have a significant impact on the winter season of 2026.2027. Numerous computer forecast models suggest El Nino conditions will peak during the fall season and will last right into the early spring of 2027.
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The month of June has been relatively benign in terms of overall temperatures along the I-95 corridor, but the flip to July on Wednesday will set off the atmospheric furnace in the northeastern states. The time period from tomorrow through Saturday, the 4th of July, will feature afternoon high temperatures near or even slightly above the 100-degree mark in much of the DC-Boston corridor with record highs in jeopardy. Intense upper-level high pressure ridging will be the key player and catalyst for the excessive heat and humidity in the northeastern part of the nation. At the same time, the western states will enjoy colder-than-normal conditions with deep upper-level trough persisting in that part of the nation.
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