Numerous factors have been considered in the preparation of the “2025-2026 Winter Outlook” including the likelihood of another winter season with La Nina conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In fact, La Nina has been the dominant player in the tropical Pacific during four of the five winters this decade with colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures persisting during these seasons. While La Nina is likely as we head into the winter, it should be relatively weak and may transition into “neutral” territory during the second half of the season. As such, teleconnection indices related to other parts of the world have been closely analyzed including Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The trend in these teleconnection indices can provide us with some clues as to the temperature and pressure patterns that can be expected during the upcoming winter season and to the prospects for “high-latitude blocking” events to take place. The combination of all these factors and a look at “analog” years with similar sea surface temperature and QBO patterns to today leads me to believe that this will be a colder-than-normal winter season across much of the eastern two/thirds of the nation including the Mid-Atlantic region with nearly normal to slightly above normal snowfall amounts on the table.
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Lots of players are on the field as we begin the weekend with one upper-level low over the Great Lakes that is dropping slowly to the southeast and a second wave of energy in the southern stream that is helping to spin up a surface low pressure system off the southeast US coast. In addition, there is a strong high-pressure system to our north that continues to shift slowly offshore as we begin the weekend. The combination of the high to the north and low to the south is already producing an onshore flow of air in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will persist for the next few days potentially leading to significant coastal flooding/beach erosion from Long Island-to-New Jersey-to-the Delmarva Peninsula. While there can be some heavy showers and strong wind gusts across inland areas during the next few days, rainfall amounts will be much more limited with the worst impact from this developing storm system confined to coastal sections.
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Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears increasingly likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US all the way from later Saturday into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow.
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Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region. It appears quite certain that this strong storm will then push far enough to the north to pound away at the coastal Carolinas with heavy rainfall and strong winds...another highly impactful event for the Outer Banks of North Carolina. After that, odds continue to increase that this weekend storm system will then push to the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline - act as a classic Nor’easter - and bring impactful rain and wind to coastal sections for an extended period of time. By early next week, the northward progress of this storm system will likely come to an end as strong high pressure builds across southeastern Canada (“confluence”) acting as a barrier in the atmosphere. As a result, the storm should turn east or it may even loop back around for awhile early next week near the Mid-Atlantic coastline before ultimately pushing out to the open waters of the western Atlantic.
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Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region. It appears quite certain that this strong storm will then push far enough to the north to pound away at the coastal Carolinas with heavy rainfall and strong winds. It is a little less certain if this strong storm can then extend far enough to the north along the eastern seaboard to produce heavy rainfall and strong winds in the Mid-Atlantic region, but that scenario is certainly on the table. Whether this system becomes a named tropical storm by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is still too early to say; however, the effects could be much the same along coastal sections of the Carolinas and potentially to the Mid-Atlantic region...namely with heavy rainfall and strong winds...a kind of classic autumnal Nor’easter. Some of the key players involved include strong high-pressure ridging which will set up over southeastern Canada and a cold front that will slide to the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week and help to act as a catalyst for the significant intensification of surface low pressure.
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Low pressure is likely to rapidly intensify this weekend over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and it is a threat for heavy rainfall and strong winds along coastal sections of the Carolinas and potentially to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Whether this system becomes a named tropical storm is too early to say; however, the effects could be the same along parts of the eastern seaboard…namely with heavy rainfall and strong winds likely in the Saturday night to Monday time period. Some of the key players involved include strong high-pressure ridging which will set up over southeastern Canada and a cold front which will slide to the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later in the week and help to act as a catalyst for the intensification of low pressure.
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It is likely that Arctic sea ice extent has reached its minimum for the year which is slightly higher than last year’s level and well above the record minimum amount observed in 2012. Temperatures in the Arctic region during the just ended summer season continued to follow a very consistent pattern of recent years, measuring nearly normal to slightly colder than normal. It is the temperatures in the summer months of June, July, and August which are critical when it comes to Arctic sea ice extent as this is the melting season up in that part of the world. Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s; however, it has shown resiliency for the last dozen years or so both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to slightly below-normal levels in the summer season and warmer-than-normal conditions during the coldest nine months of the year is the increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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The Atlantic Basin is quite active with three tropical systems of note as we head towards the end of September. There is a newly named Tropical Storm Humberto situated to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, a likely-to-be named Imelda which is now located near the Dominican Republic, and a weakening Hurricane Gabrielle in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is the likely-to-be named Imelda that may be of most concern at this point as it could threaten the Bahamas this weekend and potentially has a chance of impacting the Southeast US.
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The Atlantic Basin is quite active as we head towards the end of September with three tropical systems currently on the playing field including a “major” Hurricane Gabrielle which is now racing off to the east-northeast and is no threat to the US. In fact, Hurricane Gabrielle could impact the Azores Islands and Portugal down the road in a weakened state after crossing over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the other two tropical systems pose more of a challenge in terms of forecasting their eventual paths and magnitudes. It appears quite likely that both systems will reach named tropical storm classification and potentially, both may climb to hurricane status. It also appears quite likely that these two systems will end up doing some sort of a dance around each other for awhile (“Fujiwhara effect”) and at least one may come uncomfortably close to the US east coast and we may not know the end of the story until we get ten or so days out from now.
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The last time a hurricane hit New England with hurricane-strength winds was Hurricane Bob on August 19, 1991. It made landfall in Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane, causing significant damage, loss of life, and coastal erosion across southern New England. For many decades prior, New England was directly hit by a hurricane on a regular basis averaging about one every 7 years or so. Yesterday, September 21, marked the 87th anniversary of one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history that struck Long Island and Southern New England. The storm has been referred to in different ways including "The Great New England Hurricane of 1938" or "The Long Island Express" or the "Yankee Clipper".
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