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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Tag: Featured

11:15 AM (Thursday) | ***”The cold is getting old, but it just won’t fold”...a look ahead to early March and the likelihood for more cold air outbreaks***

Paul Dorian

Arctic air covers much of the nation again today with a continuing tight grip on the central states where numerous daily low temperature records have been set all the way from the Dakotas to Texas and, in a few cases, monthly low temperature records have been challenged. The average temperature across the continental US earlier today was 15.0°F below the average for this time of year and, in a few spots, temperatures were between 45 and 50 degrees below the average (e.g., Nebraska, SW Missouri). Temperatures will gradually moderate over the upcoming weekend and next week promises to feature above-normal temperatures across a wide part of the nation. It is, however, quite likely that additional very cold air masses will be able to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as the month of March gets underway.

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***Bitter cold across much of the nation and more to come...southern Mid-Atlantic snowstorm later today/tonight...northern stream system brings some snow on Thursday to DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor***

Paul Dorian

Arctic air covers much of the nation today with a particularly tight grip on the central states where numerous daily low temperature records have been set all the way from the Dakotas to the Rio Grande Valley region of southern Texas. The average temperature across the continental US earlier today was 15.4°F which is well below normal for this time of year and only the state of Florida could boast about warm weather conditions.

In addition to the widespread cold, accumulating snow fell yesterday across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and significant snow today will spread from the Tennessee Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic region. The DC metro area will be on the northern edge of today’s “southern stream” system and can receive a coating to an inch or so; especially, across the southern suburbs. On Thursday, a “northern stream” wave in the upper atmosphere will pass right over the Mid-Atlantic region and likely result in some snow or snow shower activity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The week ends with yet another very cold and windy day on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region with well below normal temperatures and even lower wind chill values.

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10:45 AM | ****Arctic chill dominates the scene...Mid MS Valley-to-southern Mid-Atlantic snowstorm...some snow likely DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...not done yet with the cold air outbreaks****

Paul Dorian

Arctic chill dominates the scene today across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and will continue to do so during the next few days. Indeed, there were numerous daily low temperature records set this morning with a focus on the north-central states (e.g., Glasgow, MT; Bismarck, ND; Duluth, MN) where wind chills of 50 degrees below zero have been commonplace. In addition to the cold, the wintry pattern will result in a snowstorm during the next couple of days that will first hit the Middle Mississippi Valley region (e.g., northern Arkansas/southern Missouri) and then extend to the southern Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., southeastern VA, Delmarva Peninsula). There can even be some snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later tomorrow into Thursday as low pressure intensifies off the coast and a northern stream upper-level low passes overhead creating an unstable environment...small accumulations are possible. Looking ahead, though temperatures will relax later this weekend into early next week, there are signs that additional Arctic cold air outbreaks will impact the central and eastern states as we close out the month of February and begin March.

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Sunday PM | ***Powerful winds from later today into Monday as cold air pours into the Mid-Atlantic region…power outages on the table***

Paul Dorian

There is a snow threat for later this week in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor; however, of more immediate concern, is the threat for some serious weather during the next 36 hours or so. A strong cold front will barrel through the region later today and there will be cold air that pours into the Mid-Atlantic region on powerful northwest winds on its heels. Ahead of the front, the rain can be torrential and there can be scattered strong thunderstorm activity as well. On the back side of the front, indications are that powerful NW winds can gust into the 50-60 mph range from later today through much of the day on Monday raising the possibility of numerous power outages at the same time temperatures take a plunge…not a good combination. Later in the week, low pressure will form over the northern Gulf coast and then head east-northeast towards the Carolina coastline. If it continues on an east-northeast track then the chance of significant snowfall in the immediate I-95 corridor would be diminished. However, it it were to take a turn up along the east coast then snowfall in DC, Philly, and NYC could be more substantial from later Wednesday into Thursday.

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****Messy weekend with rain, strong winds…snow can precede the rain on Saturday with accumulations possible; especially, north of PA/MD border...a mid-week snow threat****

Paul Dorian

A major storm system that pounded the western US will cross the country and impact the northeastern states this weekend. There will be plenty of rainfall and strong winds during this weekend event in the Mid-Atlantic region, but snow and ice are likely at the onset with some accumulations possible on Saturday; especially, north of the PA/MD border. Once this system passes, cold air will pour into the northeastern states on powerful and potentially damaging NW winds and next week looks quite cold across much of the central and eastern US. Low pressure is likely to gather strength in the southern states by the middle of next week aided by an influx of Gulf moisture and it looks like it may become an accumulating snow threat by later Wednesday or Thursday.

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****Strong storm pounds western US...reaches northeastern states this weekend...very cold next week...mid-week east coast major storm threat****

Paul Dorian

A major storm system will pound the western states during the next couple of days and it will then trek across the nation and wreak havoc in the eastern states this weekend. In California, the rainfall in coming days will be heavy all along low-lying coastal sections from Oregon to the Mexican border, and snowfall will be measured by the foot in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. By the early part of the upcoming weekend, this same storm system will bring flooding rainfall to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and then significant snow is likely on Sunday across interior New York State and New England.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, there will be plenty of rainfall this weekend; however, it is likely to be preceded on the front-end by snow and accumulations are possible; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border. Cold air will pour into the eastern states following this weekend storm system and next week is indeed looking very cold across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Low pressure is likely to gather strength in the southern states by the middle of next week aided by an influx of Gulf moisture and it could become a major east coast storm system by later Wednesday or Thursday.

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11:30 AM | ***Active pattern continues...double-barrel weekend storm system with snow or ice possible on the front end...rain to follow...possibly heavy...east coast storm threat later next week***

Paul Dorian

One low pressure system is pulling away this morning and another one is following right on its heels and will end up over the eastern Great Lakes by early Thursday. There will be some snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several hours and then (light) mixed precipitation late today/early tonight should change to plain rain by late tonight/early tomorrow. Another storm system will hit the Mid-Atlantic region during the weekend and it’ll have an impact on both Saturday and Saturday. At the front end, there can be a burst of snow and/or sleet later Saturday morning or mid-day...perhaps even some accumulations north of the PA/MD border...and then rain is likely on Saturday night and Sunday. In fact, some of the rain can be heavy at times which would raise some flooding concerns given the combination of the rain with melting snow. A strong cold front pushes through the Mid-Atlantic later Sunday ushering in much colder-than-normal air mass for the first half of next week. By the middle of next week, we’ll have to watch for the possibility of an east coast storm system that would have plenty of cold air to work with in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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12:30 PM (Tuesday) | ****A wild ten days of weather****

Paul Dorian

The hits just keep on coming and it looks like a wild ten days of weather...

The very active weather patten will bring the Mid-Atlantic region a snow event later today/tonight...a mixed precipitation event later tomorrow/tomorrow night...a weekend double-barreled strong storm system with gusty winds, rain that can get heavy at times, and snow cannot be ruled out on the front end...and, finally, there can be an east coast storm threat later next week.

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1:15 PM | ***Accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic from later tomorrow into early Wednesday...highest amounts across DC, Virginia, Delmarva, southern NJ...more wintry precipitation Wed. night***

Paul Dorian

The next low pressure to impact the Mid-Atlantic region will take more of a southern track compared to recent systems and head to a position off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Wednesday. As a result, cold air will become better established farther to the south and we are looking at primarily a snow event in the Mid-Atlantic including across the DC metro region. Given the southern track, the highest snowfall amounts are likely to cut across the southern Mid-Atlantic in places like DC, Virginia, Delmarva and southern New Jersey where several inches are possible. A follow-up low pressure system will quickly follow from late Wednesday into Thursday, and it will have a lot of cold air on its front end likely resulting in snow and/or sleet by Wednesday evening in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. However, this second system will take a track to the northwest of I-95 and that path will allow for milder air to push northward resulting in a changeover by Thursday of snow/sleet to freezing rain and rain.

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***The hits just keep on coming...ice, snow Saturday/Saturday Night…accumulating snow later Tuesday into Wednesday with highest amounts southern Mid-Atlantic...other threats to follow***

Paul Dorian

The hits just keep on coming...

An active weather pattern will bring two more winter storms to the Mid-Atlantic region between the weekend and the early-to-middle part of next week and there will be multiple other threats to follow. Low pressure will ride up along the Appalachian Mountains late Saturday as a secondary system forms off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result will be snow, sleet and freezing rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from Saturday into Saturday night with significant icing in some areas . The bulk of Super Bowl Sunday will be dry with no travel issues expected during the afternoon hours leading up time to the game (starts at 6:30pm). Another storm is likely to take more of a southern track early next week compared to recent systems heading directly to the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This next storm system will bring accumulating snow to the Mid-Atlantic from later Tuesday into Wednesday and perhaps significant amounts in places like the Washington, D.C. metro region.

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