*****Major snowstorm for many in the eastern Mid-Atlantic region including SE PA, NJ, DE, and NYC…significant snowfall…strong winds…possible "thundersnow"...a long duration event*****

February 22, 2026Paul Dorian

What may become known as the “Blizzard of 2026” to many in the eastern Mid-Atlantic region begins rather innocuously this morning with plain rain and above freezing temperatures in some areas and a mixture of rain and snow is likely soon in other locations. However, precipitation will change over to all snow by later in the day in most areas, become heavy at times early tonight, and continue into mid-day Monday – a long duration event. In fact, the snow could fall heavy enough tonight in the eastern Mid-Atlantic region to produce 2+ inches per hour and “thundersnow” is on the table. Snowfall amounts in the eastern Mid-Atlantic will become significant with a foot or more in many areas. The DC metro region will escape the significant snowfall amounts coming to the eastern Mid-Atlantic, but at least a few inches are on the table in the nation’s capital. Winds will become a big factor by later tonight and continue strong on Monday resulting in blowing and drifting of snow during the latter stages of the storm. On the heels of the storm, a very cold air mass will flood the eastern US for the first half of the new week.

*****Major winter storm to slam the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday into Monday…all-out blizzard conditions in many areas*****

February 21, 2026Paul Dorian

Major winter storm to slam much of the Mid-Atlantic region…

All-out blizzard conditions in many areas…

Low pressure will intensify rapidly later tomorrow as it pushes slowly northward just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and it is going to produce substantial snowfall in some areas and powerful winds as well especially along coastal sections. The precipitation in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will begin on Sunday morning as plain rain in some areas, a mixture of rain and snow in others, but all areas will feature a changeover to snow by later Sunday. The snow is likely to fall heavily at times from Sunday evening into mid-day Monday, leading to big-time travel disruptions for the Monday commutes in many areas. On the heels of the storm, a very cold air mass will flood much of the eastern US during the early part of next week.

*****Significant snowstorm for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...low pressure to intensify off Mid-Atlantic coastline...likely timetable of Sunday AM to Monday AM*****

February 20, 2026Paul Dorian

A significant snowstorm for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…

Low pressure will intensify rapidly later Sunday over the western Atlantic Ocean, and it is very likely to produce accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with significant amounts of 6-12+ inches on the table. The precipitation may begin as rain or a mix of rain and snow on Sunday morning/midday before changing to all snow by later in the day and the snow can come down heavily at times from late Sunday into Monday morning…potentially leading to big-time travel disruptions for the Monday morning commute. The storm will intensify rapidly as upper-level support takes on a “negative tilt” and enhances upward motion at surface levels in the Mid-Atlantic region. The possibility of a significant snow event in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm with a “hugging” of the coast more favorable for highest accumulation amounts…this scenario is looking increasingly likely. Farther up the I-95 corridor, a significant snowstorm is also quite likely across southern and eastern New England including the Boston metro. On the heels of the storm, a very cold air mass will flood much of the eastern US during the early part of next week.

****Closely monitoring late weekend storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic region...a possible important factor that can influence storm track...and an inverted trough****

February 19, 2026Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify significantly later Sunday somewhere over the western Atlantic Ocean and it can produce rain and accumulating snow inland to the I-95 corridor. The greatest impact from the late weekend storm may come in coastal sections from New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula to the eastern part of Virginia, still a few days away to fine-tune this idea. Two important details that have to be ironed out involve the ultimate storm track and the timing of the rapid intensification. Does the storm system hug the coast or push east-to-northeast out over the western Atlantic? Does the storm system intensify rapidly right near the coast or out over the western Atlantic? The multiple waves of energy that will be critical players in this unfolding scenario will come into better focus during the next couple of days. Another important factor that can play a role in the ultimate track of the late weekend storm system is the sea surface temperature pattern near the eastern seaboard with a sharp gradient off the North Carolina coastline.

***Still closely monitoring late weekend storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic region...highest impact could be along coastal sections from NJ to the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern VA***

February 18, 2026Paul Dorian

The threat of a late weekend storm system continues for the Mid-Atlantic region, and many details still must be ironed out to determine potential impact levels. The greatest impact may come in coastal sections from New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula to the eastern part of Virginia, still a few days away to fine-tune this idea. Low pressure will likely push towards the Carolina coastline by later Sunday and then intensify rapidly thereafter as it moves in an east-to-northeast fashion out over the open waters of the western Atlantic. The exact track and timing of the intensification of the low-pressure system remain open questions at this point int time and are critical in the determination of the ultimate impact in the Mid-Atlantic region.

**It’s déjà vu all over again...monitoring another late weekend storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic region...ultimate track and impact still in question**

February 17, 2026Paul Dorian

This may sound familiar, but there is the chance that a storm system will travel eastward this weekend from the Deep South to the east coast, and it could threaten the Mid-Atlantic region with snow, ice and/or rain. The overall weather pattern will be quite active for much of the country in coming days with multiple storm systems to deal with and impacts from coast-to-coast. One storm system came ashore on Monday along the California coast, and it will push to the Colorado Rockies by the middle of the week. At the same time, a frontal boundary zone will start to set up from the Northern Plains to the northeastern states, and it will be the focus area for multiple disturbances leading to some snow and ice on its northern side and rain to the south.

By the early part of the weekend, another storm system will begin to take shape over the south-central US with its moisture field starting to expand. Much like the scenario that played out last weekend, this low pressure system will trek in a general eastward direction - riding along the subtropical jet stream - and potentially can reach the Mid-Atlantic coastline by late Sunday. With cold air in place and support in the upper atmosphere, this system could intensify at that point and become a threat for accumulating snow in at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic region by the latter part of the weekend.

****Some accumulating snow on Sunday night across eastern PA, New Jersey, and NYC...dynamical cooling results in changeover to snow to the north of the PA/MD border****

February 14, 2026Paul Dorian

A storm system that came ashore in California at mid-week is crossing the southern states and will spread its precipitation shield into the Mid-Atlantic region from later Sunday into Sunday night. The air mass will initially be only marginally cold enough to support frozen precipitation; however, dynamical cooling in the atmosphere associated with a strong upper level jet streak should result in more favorable conditions for snow by Sunday night across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York City and up to a few inches are on the table. To the south of the PA/MD border, rain is likely to be the predominate precipitation type in the immediate DC metro area with no accumulations expected. However, snow and/or ice can mix in across some of DC’s far northern suburbs, and the northern part of Maryland that is close to the Pennsylvania border and northern Delaware can certainly see some small accumulations.