An Arctic air mass has reached the eastern US today on the heels of a strong cold frontal system and this winter chill will extend all the way down to the state of Florida by later tonight. Another Arctic air mass will push into the north-central US early this weekend and it’ll spread to the east coast later in the weekend. The frontal boundary zone at the leading edge of the weekend Arctic blast will act as a catalyst for waves of low pressure to form and one system can bring some snow to parts of the eastern US from later Friday night to Saturday and a second on Sunday. The second low pressure system can bring snow to unusual places in the southeastern part of the nation on Sunday, and its snow field may extend far enough to the north and west to have an impact in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Following the passage of the Sunday system, yet another Arctic air mass will drop south and east into the northern US on Sunday night, and it’ll put the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US into the deep freeze by time Monday night and Tuesday roll around. Looking ahead, numerous signs point to additional Arctic air outbreaks as we work through the last week of January and this time period could feature some extreme cold.
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The next couple of weeks are likely to feature multiple Arctic air outbreaks across the eastern half of the nation and even the state of Florida will be impacted (watch out iguanas). This kind of evolving pattern that features a major disruption of the polar vortex can certainly include some extreme cold during what is statistically speaking the coldest time of the year later in the month. This cold weather pattern will be quite active as well with multiple snow threats along the way for the Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US...and perhaps some snow this weekend in unusual places like the Southeast US.
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After a couple of moderately cold days to start the week in the Mid-Atlantic region, it’ll turn milder on Wednesday ahead of the next cold frontal system. That mid-week cold front will usher in a colder air mass later this week, and it appears the overall weather pattern is setting up for multiple cold air outbreaks during the second half of January, and this will include the possibility of extreme cold.
In addition, the evolving weather pattern will likely be quite active as well featuring strong high pressure ridging near Alaska, high latitude blocking across northern Canada, and a large-scale and intense trough of low pressure centered over the eastern states. Multiple short-wave streams of energy will rotate through the large-scale trough, and each will have to be monitored to see if they can produce any appreciable snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Much warmer-than-normal air that originated over the Pacific Ocean has enveloped much of the nation this week and some of this will reach the northeastern states on Friday with high temperatures likely well up in the 50’s in many locations. It’ll turn out cooler on Saturday with a soaking rainfall, but still warmer-than-normal for this time of year. The milder weather will come to an end later this weekend with the passage of a strong cold front that’ll usher in colder and windy weather conditions for later Sunday into Monday.
By later next week, some important changes will begin to take place in the upper atmosphere across North America. First, an intense upper-level ridge of high pressure is likely to form near Alaska and the west coast of Canada replacing a trough of low pressure that has dominated that region in recent weeks. At the same time, an upper-level trough of low pressure will deepen over the eastern half of the US in response to a more active subtropical jet stream that has been largely missing in action in recent weeks. This combination will increase the chance for additional cold air intrusions into the US from Canada beginning later next week and can increase the chance for storms to develop across the southern and eastern states.
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It has been persistently cold in the northeastern states from around Thanksgiving Day to the present time with the month of December being observed as the coldest since 2010 in many spots including Washington, D.C. and New York City. A warmer weather pattern is on the way, however, which will bring noticeably milder conditions to the region in the Wednesday through Saturday time period. The peak in temperatures will come on Friday and Saturday for the northeastern states, but both of those will feature some rainfall dampening the mood a bit. The next strong cold front looks like it’ll arrive in the eastern states late on Saturday, and its passage will reverse the warmer trend by the time we get to the second half of the upcoming weekend and the early part of next week.
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A reinforcing shot of Arctic air will push into the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours assuring a very cold start to the new year. The cold front that will usher in this next Arctic air mass will have some kick to it and it could spark a quick burst of heavy snow during the late-night hours which will follow snow showers in many areas this evening. Temperatures on the first day of the new year will be well below normal and will struggle to climb much past the 30-degree mark in the I-95 corridor region and strong northwest winds will make it feel even colder than the actual outdoor temperatures. The colder-than-normal weather pattern continues through the upcoming weekend and we’ll be monitoring low pressure over the Southeast US to see if it can come far enough to the north to impact the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, the cold pattern may relax for a week or so; however, numerous signals point to the return of the cold pattern before we get to the middle of the month.
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The passage of a strong cold front on Monday ushered in an Arctic air mass to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and it is being accompanied by very strong winds that can gust today up to 50 mph or so. A reinforcing Arctic blast will arrive to start the new year on Thursday, and temperatures will remain well below-normal for the first few days of January. Looking ahead, numerous signs point to a continuation of the colder-than-normal pattern across the northern US as we progress through January and some extreme cold could get into the mix.
In addition to the wind and cold, the next few days in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US will also feature a couple of upper-level “short-wave” disturbances that will rotate through a “long-wave” trough of low pressure now centered over the northeastern states. As a result, there can be snow showers at various times including late tonight and early tomorrow from one disturbance and again late tomorrow night to early Thursday from a second disturbance. This second “short-wave” is the stronger of the two and small snow accumulations cannot be ruled out – even in the immediate I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC – right as we begin the new year on Thursday.
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A powerful cold front will barrel through the region during the next couple of hours and the winds should kick up dramatically as much colder air plunges into the northeastern part of the country. In fact, gusts can reach 50 mph this afternoon and evening in the Mid-Atlantic region from the usual post-cold frontal direction of west-to-northwest. This incoming blast of cold air will be followed quickly by a second one right around the time we transition to the new year on Thursday and that influx of Arctic air may be accompanied by some snow. As we go through the medium-term, two important changes in the atmosphere will be unfolding, and they can lead to an increased chance of an east coast storm and accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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December 1776 was a desperate time for General George Washington and the American Revolution. Morale was low, hope for winning the war was diminishing, and the Continental Army led by George Washington was thinning in numbers after many battles lost to the British. There was even talk of replacing General Washington with either General Charles Lee or General Horatio Gates. December began with lots of rain and muddy travel conditions for the men which did not help with their spirits. After retreating through New Jersey, they set up camp on the Pennsylvania side of the Delaware River where the army was met with very cold weather that led to plenty of ice on the water. All in all, things were not looking good for Washington's army. However, General George Washington devised a plan that would change the course of the war and the history of our nation.
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While the nation’s mid-section enjoys rarely ever-seen sustained warmth for the next few days, the northeastern states will continue to experience plenty of winter weather right into the early part of January. One system is bringing some accumulating snow today to the northern Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and some interior higher elevation locations will receive several inches. Another storm system is likely to threaten the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US on Friday with significant accumulating snow in some areas and substantial icing in others. A key player at the end of the week will be a strong high-pressure system over southeastern Canada which will act as an anchor for low-level Arctic air that can lead to frozen precipitation throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.
Looking ahead to next week, the winter weather pattern is likely to continue across the northeastern states with two major-league Arctic air outbreaks on the table. Both of these Arctic air masses will have originated up across the northwestern part of Canada where temperatures on Monday morning bottomed out at -67.7°F... reportedly the lowest temperature in Canada since January 1999…in other words, get ready, next week’s Arctic invasions might be quite noteworthy.
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