The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.
“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.
“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.
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Sometimes during the month of June, the jet stream retreats safely to the north into Canada, and the weather settles down across the continental US...that certainly does not appear to the case this year. Upper-level troughs of low pressure and colder-than-normal air masses continue to drop into the US from Canada, and this is resulting in severe weather outbreaks and there will be an enhanced threat during the next few days. Next week promises to feature another impressive upper-level trough by June standards that will no doubt be impactful with more severe weather threats and widespread cooler-than-normal conditions.
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With thousands of lives on the line, there is no doubt that the weather forecast made for the D-Day invasion in Normandy, France during World War II was the most important of all-time and one of the most difficult as well given the lack of sophisticated forecasting tools that we enjoy in today’s world. The first satellite image was still nearly sixteen years away (TIROS on April 1, 1960) and reliable computer forecast models were still decades away. This Saturday, June 6th, marks the 82nd anniversary of the D-Day invasion and the weather forecast for that historic event makes for quite an interesting story in what turned out to be a pivotal moment in world history.
And now, the weather forecast for this historical event and the intense pressure behind it has been captured in a movie appropriately named “Pressure” which focuses on the 72 hours leading up to the D-Day landings. Years of detailed planning went into the D-Day invasion on June 6, 1944, but success hinged on one element that no military commander could control — the weather. Defying his colleagues, Captain James Martin Stagg advised General Dwight “Ike” Eisenhower to postpone the invasion of Normandy by one day from June 5th to June 6th because of uncertain weather conditions in a weather forecast that changed the course of World War II and altered world history.
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El Nino is on the way, and it looks like it will be a strong event...
The equatorial Pacific Ocean is transitioning into El Nino conditions (i.e., warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) and signs point to a strong event by the summer and fall seasons with big implications on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears this El Nino event may even last into the upcoming winter season of 2026-2027 which no doubt would have some implications across the continental US.
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It was during the height of the Cold War and a powerful solar storm could have led to a disastrous military conflict between the US and Soviet Union if not for the early efforts of the US Air Force to monitor solar activity. On May 23rd, 1967, a solar storm took place that was so powerful, it jammed radar and radio communications in polar regions and the US Air Force actually began to prepare aircraft for war thinking the nation’s surveillance radars were being jammed by the Soviet Union. Fortunately, space weather forecasters in the military suspected there might be another cause and they relayed information about the possibility that a solar storm could have been the reason for the disrupted radar and radio communications. As it turned out, this information was enough to keep the planes on the ground and the US avoided a potential nuclear weapon exchange with the Soviet Union.
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The most intense geomagnetic storm of the 20th Century took place during solar cycle 15 in a 3-day period from May 13-15 in 1921. The storm occurred before the widespread electrical dependence of infrastructure that we have in today’s world, but the impact from an extraordinarily powerful coronal mass ejection was still quite extensive. The storm’s electrical current sparked a number of fires around the world including one near the Grand Central Terminal in New York City. In addition, auroras appeared throughout the eastern US creating brightly lit nighttime skies and telegraph service virtually stopped in its tracks due to blown fuses and damaged equipment. Research in recent years has suggested that this super solar storm of May 1921 was equally as intense as the granddaddy of all super storms in recorded history – the “Carrington Event of 1859”.
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Much of the week ahead will be rather cool and unsettled across the northeastern part of the nation with a persistent upper-level trough of low pressure sitting nearby. This upper air pattern will keep temperatures generally suppressed to below-normal levels in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and there will be a shower threat from time-to-time. By the weekend, important changes will take place as the upper-level trough over the northeastern US retreats off to the northeast and an upper-level ridge of high pressure edges its way into the area from the western states. This ridge will intensify early next week, and the result could be 90+ degrees in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time period in places along the I-95 corridor. Looking beyond, it appears that the big-time warm up early next week will not last too much longer as a frontal system next mid-week is likely to return temperatures to more seasonal levels.
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As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is going to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and signs are increasingly pointing to one of the strongest episodes in the last 50 years. The most powerful El Nino events in recent history took place in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and during 2015-2016, and this upcoming occurrence could rival all of them in terms of its magnitude. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in recent days across the tropical Pacific Ocean, but some very warm water relative-to-normal lurks just beneath the surface…and it is “bubbling” up to the top. El Nino will have worldwide impacts during the summer and fall seasons and likely be a big inhibiting factor to the Atlantic Basin tropical season due to increased subsidence and wind shear (hostile conditions for tropical systems). Should El Nino continue into the first part of 2027 - and odds are quite good from this vantage point - it could have big implications on the winter season across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.
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Weather played an important role in the 1912 disaster of the sinking of the RMS Titanic, and it likely played a direct role in another disaster that took place 25 years later – at least that is the prevailing belief. On May 6th, 1937, while the German passenger airship LZ 129 Hindenburg was attempting to land at the Lakehurst Naval Air Station in New Jersey, a flame appeared on the outer cover of the rear of the ship. Within 34 seconds, the entire airship was consumed by fire and the golden age of airship travel was over.
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