A strong cold front passed through the region late yesterday paving the way for a chilly Turkey Day and the chill remains into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will do no better than 50 degrees for afternoon highs and will likely drop to below freezing on Thursday night and Friday night as well. Looking ahead, low pressure may ride up along a frontal boundary zone early next week and it could potentially bring a heavy rain event to the area.
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The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will begin with a major Great Lakes snow event from Thursday to Friday and an Great Lakes/Midwest snowstorm this weekend and it could end with a White Christmas in many parts of the country. Two of the factors that have been highlighted here, likely leading to a cold and active stretch of weather, include an unusual early season stratospheric warming event and the likely movement of a tropical disturbance into a location that favors colder-than-normal conditions across a large part of the nation. Both of these phenomena – stratospheric warming and tropical forcing – will likely lead to a “buckling” of the polar jet stream which can lead to the unleashing of multiple Arctic air masses from northern Canada into the US (with intense cold in the table), and an activation of the southern branch of the jet stream which will likely produce multiple snow/ice threats.
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A strong cold front will approach the area during the next couple of days producing some shower and thunderstorm activity in the region. Temperatures will take a tumble by tomorrow night following the passage of the cold front and this will set us up for a windy and cold Turkey Day and the wind and chill will stick around to close out the shortened work week.
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There are signals that continue to point to an upcoming cold weather pattern for the central and eastern states as the early part of the winter season gets underway. These signs come from such diverse places as the stratosphere over the North Pole (re: Stratospheric Warming), the stratosphere over the tropics (re: QBO), and the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (re: MJO).
To begin, it appears as though there will be a “Stratospheric Warming” event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere in coming days which is quite a rare occurrence for this early stage of the winter season. In fact, it appears there have been only two Stratospheric Warming events in recent history that took place during the month of November...2000 and 1968...and in both of those years the month of December was quite cold across the nation. One atmospheric phenomenon that supports the idea of one (or more) “Stratospheric Warming” event(s) this winter season is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) which is a changing wind anomaly in the tropical lower stratosphere. When an “easterly” or “negative” phase of the QBO is combined with La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean – both of which represent the current situation - there is a strong tendency for an increase in “Stratospheric Warming” events and the disruption of the polar vortex. This particular teleconnection was one of the factors highlighted in the ”2025-2026 Winter Outlook” issued back in October.
Additionally, there is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affects the weather patterns across the globe. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds and rain that traverses the planet in the tropics and - depending on its location and the time of the year - it can contribute to colder-than-normal weather patterns across the central and eastern US.
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The rest of the week and weekend look to be rather mild and unsettled with the chance of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time. In terms of temperatures, they’ll likely reach the upper 70’s later today and on Friday and the low-to-mid 70’s each day this weekend.
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The remainder of the week looks to be rather mild and unsettled with the chance of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time. In terms of temperatures, they’ll likely reach the upper 70’s later today and on Thursday and the middle 70’s on Friday afternoon.
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The week ahead looks to be rather mild and unsettled with the chance of showers from time-to-time. In terms of temperatures, they’ll likely hold in the 60’s later today for afternoon highs, but then should reach into the 70’s during the next few days.
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The comeback in temperatures from the early week Arctic invasion continues today with afternoon highs likely to be within a few degrees of the 70-degree mark. The warmer trend continues into the weekend with highs likely to be in the low-to-mid 70’s on both Saturday and Sunday and plenty of sunshine each day.
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An Arctic air mass that originated near the North Pole has infiltrated the eastern states today and it will have an impact all the way down to southern Florida by Tuesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday morning are likely to bottom out in the 30’s across the central part of the Sunshine State and the 40’s in southern Florida. At the same time, many suburban locations along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will feature the first hard freeze of the season with overnight lows well down in the 20’s in many spots. There is accumulating snow to go along with this early week Arctic blast with favored areas including the Great Lakes, interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, and the central Appalachians where a vigorous upper-level low is helping to destabilize the atmosphere in a big way.
While there will likely continue to be colder-than-normal temperatures across the northeastern states during the second half of the week, this winter-like pattern does not look like it’ll continue through November. In fact, there are signs for warmer-than-normal conditions to cover much of the nation from next week into the following week and it may include one or more severe weather outbreaks as well. Looking farther down the road, numerous signals point to a sustained colder-than-normal period to start the winter season as we transition into the month of December.
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An Arctic air mass has pushed into the eastern states and temperatures around here will be way below normal for this time of year. Despite some sunshine today, temperatures will struggle to reach the 40-degree mark for afternoon highs, and a stiff wind will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A hard and widespread freeze is in the offing for later tonight with overnight low temperatures likely way down into the lower 20’s.
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