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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

6:00 AM | *Drought relief continues across the southeastern states*

Paul Dorian

Drought relief continues to come to the southeastern states and the overall pattern stays quite unsettled around here right through the upcoming weekend. After the soaking rainfall of yesterday, each coming day through Sunday will feature a chance of showers and thunderstorms to go along with the warm conditions and afternoon highs generally in the lower 80’s.

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*El Nino continues to unfold across the equatorial Pacific...signs point to a strong event with implications on the upcoming tropical season and potentially next winter as well*

Paul Dorian

El Nino is on the way, and it looks like it will be a strong event...

The equatorial Pacific Ocean is transitioning into El Nino conditions (i.e., warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) and signs point to a strong event by the summer and fall seasons with big implications on tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Looking ahead, it appears this El Nino event may even last into the upcoming winter season of 2026-2027 which no doubt would have some implications across the continental US.

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6:00 AM | *90-degree highs on the table around here for the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds into the eastern states*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will be warm across the region with daily highs likely within a few degrees of 80. By the weekend, high pressure ridging will build into the eastern states, and the result will be a big-time warm up. In fact, temperatures around here can reach the 90-degree mark for afternoon highs on both Saturday and Sunday, and the summer-like warmth will continue into early next week.

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**Cooler-than-normal pattern across much of the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of May...cooler pattern will come with multiple rain opportunities**

Paul Dorian

May gets underway on Friday, and it looks like a cooler-than-normal pattern will dominate in the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of the new month. Multiple cooler than normal air masses are likely to push into the north-central states from central Canada during those next couple of weeks and these will ultimately spread to the south and east and encompass the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. A favorable pattern for the transport of cooler-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US will feature a persistent upper-level trough centered near the Great Lakes as well as some “high-latitude blocking” up across northeastern Canada and Greenland. In addition to the expected cooler conditions, multiple rain events are on the table during the next couple of weeks beginning with one from later today into early Thursday which will impact the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | **An active weather pattern brings us the chance today of additional showers and thunderstorms**

Paul Dorian

An unsettled weather pattern will bring us the chance for more showers and thunderstorms today with the jet stream more activated than normal for this time of year and displaced farther to the south. This “activated” jet stream is the atmosphere’s response to the initial signs of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific with warmer-than-normal water temperatures now observed at surface level.

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6:00 AM | ***Strong-to-severe thunderstorms on the table across northern Alabama at just about anytime today***

Paul Dorian

An unsettled weather pattern will bring strong-to-severe thunderstorms to northern Alabama today and some of the rain will be heavy at times with as much as a couple of inches in localized areas. The overall unsettled pattern will continue into May as the jet stream has become activated and displaced farther south than usual for this time of year. This unsettled pattern will result in additional severe weather threats as well in coming days across the Tennessee Valley.

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***Severe weather risk later Monday/Monday Night with a focus on Missouri, Illinois and Indiana...threats to continue into May with an active jet stream and additional cold air outbreaks***

Paul Dorian

A combination of ingredients will come together later today and tonight to enhance the risk of severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley region with a focus on the region from Arkansas to Indiana. One of the contributing factors in today’s severe weather threat is an active jet stream that has intensified in recent days across the central and southern US in an atmospheric response to the initial phase of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the south and east on Tuesday mainly to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. In fact, the threat of severe weather will likely continue well into the month of May as additional cold air masses are destined to drop southeastward from central Canada into the northern US. This evolving weather pattern will produce below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation from late April into at least the middle of May and multiple rain events are likely to be included from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard.

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