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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: HSV
It remains very warm and humid today with a continuing shot at PM showers and thunderstorms. The weekend and early part of next week will feature hotter conditions and generally rain-free as high pressure takes full control of the weather around here.
Read MoreTropical Storm Erin appears better organized today and has indeed undergone a bit of strengthening with maximum sustained winds now clocked at 60 mph as it churns to the west at around 17 mph. Over the next few days, Tropical Storm Erin will push over increasingly warm waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for intensification (less dry air, less wind shear). As a result, significant intensification is on the table for Erin which could take it from its current tropical storm status to hurricane (category 1) classification on Friday and then to “major” hurricane status (category 3 or higher) by the second half of the weekend. It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve away from the east coast …first to the northwest then to the north and ultimately to the northeast and out over the open waters of the North Atlantic. Two key players in this expected curve of Erin will be an upper-level ridge over eastern Canada that will tend to get displaced by an upper-level trough of low pressure...all of these systems still need to be closely monitored as small changes can potentially have big impacts on some coastal sections.
Read MoreThe remainder of the work week will feature very warm and humid conditions and a daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The weekend will feature hotter conditions and generally rain-free as high pressure takes full control of the weather around here.
Read MoreThe intensity of Tropical Storm Erin has been relatively unchanged during the past 24 hours maintaining maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph as it churns to the west across the tropical Atlantic. There is not likely to be much intensification over the next 24 hours or so as it continues to deal with a dry air mass and moves over only modestly warm waters. Later this week, TS Erin will push over increasingly warm water in the western Atlantic Ocean and this will very likely result in intensification to category 1 hurricane status...the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season.
Over the weekend, overall environmental conditions will become more favorable for intensification as it moves over very warm water and this can result in Erin attaining “major” hurricane status of category 3 (or higher). It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve to the north over the western Atlantic Ocean and then ultimately to the northeast…likely resulting in it not reaching the US east coast. However, there are several days to go and this system needs to be closely monitored as nothing is written in stone this far out.
Read MoreThe remainder of the week will feature very warm and humid conditions and a daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High pressure off the northeast coastline (Bermuda high position) continues to be the main player across the eastern states.
Read MoreThe upcoming week will generally feature very warm conditions with a daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High pressure off the northeast coastline continues to be the main player across the eastern states.
Read MoreThe work week will end with quite warm weather and afternoon highs near the 90 degree mark. It remains quite warm this weekend with similar high temperatures and there can be some scattered PM shower and thunderstorm activity.
Read MoreThe overall weather pattern remains moderately warm for the southeastern states with an upper-level trough axis situated over the Mississippi River Valley and this will allow for some weak shortwaves to push eastward into this area. Temperatures are likely to peak in the upper 80’s each of the next few days and then surpass the 90-degree mark once again by the early part of next week.
Read MoreThe overall weather pattern remains moderately warm for the southeastern states with an upper-level trough axis situated over the Mississippi River Valley which allows for some weak shortwaves to push eastward. Cloud cover and precipitation chances will help to keep temperatures confined to moderately warm levels for the early part of August.
Read MoreThe Atlantic Basin tropical season typically reaches a peak around the middle of September and the month of August usually features a steady ramp up in overall activity. Indeed, adhering to the climatological theme, tropical activity has picked up in the Atlantic Basin right on schedule once we flipped the calendar from July to August, and it is featuring multiple systems. A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is providing support to the idea that the next few weeks will remain quite active in the Atlantic Basin.
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