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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

6:00 AM | *An unsettled weather pattern returns to the Tennessee Valley for later this weekend and the early part of next week*

Paul Dorian

The pattern has been generally dry and quiet in recent days, but there will be an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the weekend. In fact, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will likely last into the early and middle parts of next week with overall moderate temperatures in store for the Tennessee Valley.

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**Significant rain event on the table later next week in the eastern US and tropical moisture may play a role...same system can produce rain/severe weather Deep South/Miss. Valley early-to-mid week**

Paul Dorian

On many occasions, it seems as if the overall weather pattern changes with the flip of the calendar from one month to another and, in this case, big changes may be coming to the southern and eastern US during the first week of November. It has been very dry during the past couple of weeks across many southern and eastern states with virtually no rain in many locations. A strong system will cross the nation next week and it may team with some tropical moisture over the western Atlantic to produce a significant rain event in the eastern US late next week and there can be severe weather to precede across much of the Deep South and Mississippi Valley.

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**Signals for an early-to-mid November polar vortex disruption...quite a rare event for this early in the season**

Paul Dorian

In our “2026-2027 Winter Outlook” that was issued a couple of weeks ago, we focused on the strong El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean that looks to continue well into the upcoming winter season. In addition, we discussed in detail the generally favorable prospects for a polar vortex disruption during the upcoming winter; especially, during the second half of the season. Little did we know that there could be polar vortex disruption as soon as the early-to-middle part of November which would be quite a rare event indeed for this early in the season. Computer forecast models indicate there will be a weakening of stratospheric winds sometime during the first half of November indicating a slowing or disruption of the Arctic polar vortex which could have “winter-like” ramifications on the weather across the continental US later in the month or during December.

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*2026-2027 Winter Outlook by Arcfield Weather*

Paul Dorian

A very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.

Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. 

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