Tropical Storm Melissa continues to drift today over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and will likely do so for several days to come. There has been no intensification of the tropical system during the past 24 hours or so as it is in an area featuring strong westerly vertical wind shear. Wind shear in the general vicinity of the circulation center of Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to diminish over the upcoming weekend which should allow for intensification of the system into a minimal hurricane, and a strengthening to “major” (category 3 or higher) hurricane status is certainly on the table by early next week. Ultimately, this tropical system will take a turn to the north - perhaps crossing over central Cuba - on its way to the western Atlantic Ocean. An active weather pattern next week will feature a powerful jet streak, intense blocking in the atmosphere centered over Canada, plenty of colder-than-normal air, an intensifying upper-level trough over the central and eastern US, and Hurricane Melissa. There is quite likely going to be some kind of interaction between the inland upper-level trough and the western Atlantic Ocean hurricane, and a “late in the game” turn to the northwest by the tropical system cannot be completely ruled out.
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The next few days will feature decent weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley with some sunshine on each day and comfortable temperatures peaking in the lower 70’s on a daily basis. The weather becomes more unsettled later this weekend with an increasing chance of showers by Sunday and that threat of rain will likely continue early next week.
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“Melissa” became the first named tropical storm of the year so far in the Caribbean Sea and it had been moving westward at a fairly rapid clip until just recently. A dramatic slowdown has taken place with Tropical Storm Melissa as it has moved into an area with very weak winds in the atmosphere. The slow movement of TS Melissa may last for the next several days and it is occurring over some very warm water in the central Caribbean...fully capable of supporting further intensification. Environmental conditions will become quite supportive of intensification as well in coming days with overall wind shear likely to diminish. This combination of favorable water temperatures for intensification along with improving environmental conditions raises the chance that TS Melissa intensifies all the way to “major” hurricane status by late this weekend or early next week. Looking ahead to later next week, with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form just inland, there certainly can be some interaction between the inland trough and the western Atlantic tropical system…stay tuned; especially, if a resident in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/New England.
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The next few days will feature decent weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley with some sunshine on each day and comfortable temperatures peaking in the lower 70’s on a daily basis. The weather becomes more unsettled this weekend with an increasing chance of showers by Saturday night and Sunday and that threat of rain will continue early next week.
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The European model run on Monday morning produced some stunningly high rainfall amounts of a foot or more in much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the 5-day period ending on Saturday, November 1st. Meanwhile, the Canadian model run from Monday night featured what is likely to be a hurricane (Melissa) producing accumulating snow over some of the higher elevations of the Northeast US late next week after it shifts northwest towards the New England coastline and encounters an unusually cold air mass. While odds are against either of these scenarios coming to fruition, they do suggest to me that the models are correctly sniffing out the potential for some energetic weather from later next week into the following week and there are several ingredients likely to come into play for just such a pattern. The ingredients include a powerful jet streak that will push into the western US this weekend from the northern Pacific Ocean, intense blocking in the upper part of the atmosphere that is likely to develop across central Canada by the middle of next week, a cold air intrusion into the US from Canada, and a likely hurricane over the western Atlantic Ocean.
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There will be a slight chance of showers on Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley, but for the most part, the reminder of the week looks quite decent. High temperatures this afternoon should be near the 75-degree mark and likely in the low-to-middle 70’s for the rest of the week.
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There have been some notable storms near the east coast during the late stages of October and early parts of November including Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022 which made landfall in Florida. It is at this time of year where there can be a “last gasp” from the Atlantic Basin tropical season as water is still quite warm in places like the Caribbean Sea, and southwestern Atlantic Ocean. At the same time, there is often an increasing frequency of chilly air masses moving from Canada into the US warning us that winter is not too far away. It is this combination of a waning tropical season combined with increasingly winter-like chill that can cause volatile weather patterns in late October and early November and we could be setting up for something like that for late next week into the beginning of November.
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A cooler air mass pushes into the region to start the new work week and temperatures should peak later today at a comfortable 70 degrees along with plenty of sunshine. The remainder of the week looks to be dominated by high pressure with upper 60’s to lower 70’s common for highs and lows generally in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.
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The weather stays warm for the next few days with afternoon highs today and Friday in the lower 80’s and then the middle 80’s are likely to start the weekend. An approaching cold front with support of an upper-level trough will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by later in the upcoming weekend and temperatures will trend down some for the early part of next week.
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The weather will turn warmer for the next few days with afternoon highs today and Thursday in the lower 80’s and then the middle 80’s by the end of the week. An approaching cold front with support of an upper-level trough will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by later in the upcoming weekend and temperatures will trend down some for the early part of next week.
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