There are signals that continue to point to an upcoming cold weather pattern for the central and eastern states as the early part of the winter season gets underway. These signs come from such diverse places as the stratosphere over the North Pole (re: Stratospheric Warming), the stratosphere over the tropics (re: QBO), and the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (re: MJO).
To begin, it appears as though there will be a “Stratospheric Warming” event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere in coming days which is quite a rare occurrence for this early stage of the winter season. In fact, it appears there have been only two Stratospheric Warming events in recent history that took place during the month of November...2000 and 1968...and in both of those years the month of December was quite cold across the nation. One atmospheric phenomenon that supports the idea of one (or more) “Stratospheric Warming” event(s) this winter season is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) which is a changing wind anomaly in the tropical lower stratosphere. When an “easterly” or “negative” phase of the QBO is combined with La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean – both of which represent the current situation - there is a strong tendency for an increase in “Stratospheric Warming” events and the disruption of the polar vortex. This particular teleconnection was one of the factors highlighted in the ”2025-2026 Winter Outlook” issued back in October.
Additionally, there is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affects the weather patterns across the globe. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds and rain that traverses the planet in the tropics and - depending on its location and the time of the year - it can contribute to colder-than-normal weather patterns across the central and eastern US.
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The rest of the week and weekend look to be rather mild and unsettled with the chance of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time. In terms of temperatures, they’ll likely reach the upper 70’s later today and on Friday and the low-to-mid 70’s each day this weekend.
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The remainder of the week looks to be rather mild and unsettled with the chance of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time. In terms of temperatures, they’ll likely reach the upper 70’s later today and on Thursday and the middle 70’s on Friday afternoon.
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The week ahead looks to be rather mild and unsettled with the chance of showers from time-to-time. In terms of temperatures, they’ll likely hold in the 60’s later today for afternoon highs, but then should reach into the 70’s during the next few days.
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The comeback in temperatures from the early week Arctic invasion continues today with afternoon highs likely to be within a few degrees of the 70-degree mark. The warmer trend continues into the weekend with highs likely to be in the low-to-mid 70’s on both Saturday and Sunday and plenty of sunshine each day.
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An Arctic air mass that originated near the North Pole has infiltrated the eastern states today and it will have an impact all the way down to southern Florida by Tuesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday morning are likely to bottom out in the 30’s across the central part of the Sunshine State and the 40’s in southern Florida. At the same time, many suburban locations along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will feature the first hard freeze of the season with overnight lows well down in the 20’s in many spots. There is accumulating snow to go along with this early week Arctic blast with favored areas including the Great Lakes, interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, and the central Appalachians where a vigorous upper-level low is helping to destabilize the atmosphere in a big way.
While there will likely continue to be colder-than-normal temperatures across the northeastern states during the second half of the week, this winter-like pattern does not look like it’ll continue through November. In fact, there are signs for warmer-than-normal conditions to cover much of the nation from next week into the following week and it may include one or more severe weather outbreaks as well. Looking farther down the road, numerous signals point to a sustained colder-than-normal period to start the winter season as we transition into the month of December.
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An Arctic air mass has pushed into the eastern states and temperatures around here will be way below normal for this time of year. Despite some sunshine today, temperatures will struggle to reach the 40-degree mark for afternoon highs, and a stiff wind will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A hard and widespread freeze is in the offing for later tonight with overnight low temperatures likely way down into the lower 20’s.
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An Arctic air mass that had its origins right near the North Pole will invade the eastern US early next week and there will be impacts felt all the way down to Florida. This will be the coldest air mass so far this season and many spots in the eastern states will experience their first hard freeze of the fall. A vigorous upper-level low will accompany this Arctic blast causing widespread unstable conditions and the result will likely be accumulating snow across some of the higher elevation Appalachian Mountains, and just downstream of the Great Lakes in those usual “favored” areas. And given an expected widespread area of unstable conditions, snow showers are even on the table for the immediate I-95 corridor from later Monday into Monday night. Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like there will be any sustained warmup across the northeastern part of the nation following this early next Arctic air outbreak with additional cold shots to follow into mid-month.
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After a quiet day today, clouds will pick up tomorrow and there can be showers and thunderstorms from late Friday into Friday night…some of the storms can be on the strong side. Looking ahead, a cold air mass with Arctic origins pushes into the eastern states by the early part of next week following a late weekend strong cold frontal passage. Temperatures will be well below normal on Monday and Tuesday of next week and overnight lows of below the freezing mark are on the table across northern Alabama.
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An active weather pattern over the next several days will feature a powerful wind event on Wednesday night across many northeastern states and then an Arctic invasion will take place across the eastern states early next week with impacts being felt all the way from Florida-to-Maine. The powerful winds on Wednesday night will be associated with an intensifying low-pressure system that forms along a strong cold frontal boundary zone, and 50-60 mph wind gusts are on the table for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US…some power outages are possible.
By the end of the upcoming weekend, another strong cold front will slide across the Great Lakes and into the eastern states, and this front will be at the leading edge of the coldest air mass of the season so far. Low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary zone, and it will be supported aloft by a vigorous low which will drop south and east into the central Appalachians. This combination of a strong surface low and a powerful upper-level low will ensure accumulating snow in many areas including the Great Lakes and interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. In fact, given the high levels of instability expected around here early next week, and the well below-normal temperatures, snow shower activity is certainly on the table all the way into the immediate I-95 corridor.
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