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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

***Numerous signals point to a colder-than-normal start to the winter season...a look at the MJO, NAO, AO, EPO, WPO, and a potential rare November Stratospheric Warming Event***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic air mass that originated near the North Pole has infiltrated the eastern states today and it will have an impact all the way down to southern Florida by Tuesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday morning are likely to bottom out in the 30’s across the central part of the Sunshine State and the 40’s in southern Florida. At the same time, many suburban locations along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will feature the first hard freeze of the season with overnight lows well down in the 20’s in many spots. There is accumulating snow to go along with this early week Arctic blast with favored areas including the Great Lakes, interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, and the central Appalachians where a vigorous upper-level low is helping to destabilize the atmosphere in a big way.

While there will likely continue to be colder-than-normal temperatures across the northeastern states during the second half of the week, this winter-like pattern does not look like it’ll continue through November. In fact, there are signs for warmer-than-normal conditions to cover much of the nation from next week into the following week and it may include one or more severe weather outbreaks as well. Looking farther down the road, numerous signals point to a sustained colder-than-normal period to start the winter season as we transition into the month of December.

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6:00 AM | ***An Arctic invasion next couple of days...temperatures struggle to reach 40 degrees today along with a stiff wind and overnight lows likely way down in the lower 20's***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic air mass has pushed into the eastern states and temperatures around here will be way below normal for this time of year. Despite some sunshine today, temperatures will struggle to reach the 40-degree mark for afternoon highs, and a stiff wind will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A hard and widespread freeze is in the offing for later tonight with overnight low temperatures likely way down into the lower 20’s.  

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***An Arctic invasion early next week featuring a vigorous upper-level low...first hard freeze, snow for many...impacts down to Florida...additional cold shots on the horizon northeastern states***

Paul Dorian

An Arctic air mass that had its origins right near the North Pole will invade the eastern US early next week and there will be impacts felt all the way down to Florida. This will be the coldest air mass so far this season and many spots in the eastern states will experience their first hard freeze of the fall. A vigorous upper-level low will accompany this Arctic blast causing widespread unstable conditions and the result will likely be accumulating snow across some of the higher elevation Appalachian Mountains, and just downstream of the Great Lakes in those usual “favored” areas. And given an expected widespread area of unstable conditions, snow showers are even on the table for the immediate I-95 corridor from later Monday into Monday night. Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like there will be any sustained warmup across the northeastern part of the nation following this early next Arctic air outbreak with additional cold shots to follow into mid-month.

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6:00 AM | **An Arctic air mass pushes into the eastern states by early next week**

Paul Dorian

After a quiet day today, clouds will pick up tomorrow and there can be showers and thunderstorms from late Friday into Friday night…some of the storms can be on the strong side. Looking ahead, a cold air mass with Arctic origins pushes into the eastern states by the early part of next week following a late weekend strong cold frontal passage. Temperatures will be well below normal on Monday and Tuesday of next week and overnight lows of below the freezing mark are on the table across northern Alabama.

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***Powerful wind event tonight...an Arctic blast early next week with impacts from Florida-to-Maine...first hard freeze for many...vigorous upper-level low assures accumulating snow in some areas***

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern over the next several days will feature a powerful wind event on Wednesday night across many northeastern states and then an Arctic invasion will take place across the eastern states early next week with impacts being felt all the way from Florida-to-Maine. The powerful winds on Wednesday night will be associated with an intensifying low-pressure system that forms along a strong cold frontal boundary zone, and 50-60 mph wind gusts are on the table for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US…some power outages are possible.

By the end of the upcoming weekend, another strong cold front will slide across the Great Lakes and into the eastern states, and this front will be at the leading edge of the coldest air mass of the season so far. Low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary zone, and it will be supported aloft by a vigorous low which will drop south and east into the central Appalachians. This combination of a strong surface low and a powerful upper-level low will ensure accumulating snow in many areas including the Great Lakes and interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. In fact, given the high levels of instability expected around here early next week, and the well below-normal temperatures, snow shower activity is certainly on the table all the way into the immediate I-95 corridor.

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***Powerful wind event on Wednesday night Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US...Arctic blast early next week for the eastern US with first hard freeze in many spots...and some snow as well***

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern over the next several days will feature a powerful wind event on Wednesday night across many northeastern states and then an Arctic air mass will invade the eastern states early next week. The powerful winds on Wednesday night will be associated with an intensifying low-pressure system that forms along a strong cold frontal boundary zone and 60+ mph wind gusts are on the table for some locations. By the end of the upcoming weekend, another strong cold front will slide into the eastern states, and this system will usher in the coldest air of the season so far with the first hard freeze in many spots and accumulating snow will be possible across the Great Lakes, interior sections of the northeastern states.

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6:00 AM | *Plenty of sun today and an afternoon high near the 70-degree mark*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will feature a gradual warming trend across the Tennessee Valley with high temperatures by Thursday in the middle 70’s. A frontal system approaches the area late in the week with the threat of showers and there can be a few strong thunderstorms as well depending on the timing. Looking ahead, a cold air mass pushes into the eastern states by the early part of next week following a weekend strong cod frontal passage.

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**An impressive cold air mass with its origins over the Arctic reaches the eastern states early next week...snow on the table Great Lakes/interior NE US/New England**

Paul Dorian

There will be as many as three cold fronts to deal with in the northeastern part of the nation during the next week or so, but the third system will be the most important and is destined to arrive late in the upcoming weekend. The first cold front comes through on Wednesday night primarily on the dry side and it turns slightly cooler behind it on Thursday. The second cold front then arrives at the end of the work week likely producing some shower activity from late Friday night into early Saturday; however, temperatures will hardly change at all this weekend following its passage. It is the third cold front that arrives on Sunday night that will be very noticeable as it is at the leading edge of an Arctic air mass…the coldest air so far this season. This cold air outbreak early next week may be accompanied by some early season accumulating snow across the Great Lakes, interior sections of the Northeast US and New England.

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