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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

****March Madness...record-warmth...severe weather threat...snow possible on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic ...late weekend Great Lakes blizzard...widespread cold air outbreak early-to-mid next week****

Paul Dorian

March is known for some wild swings in the weather, and this one looks like it will not disappoint. Temperatures peaked at record-breaking levels on Tuesday in the Mid-Atlantic region and included the earliest observation of 80 degrees in New York City’s Central Park. Severe weather broke out on Tuesday afternoon and evening across the Upper Midwest with tornadoes reported across parts of Illinois and Indiana and severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic region and Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A strong cold front pushes through the Mid-Atlantic region early Thursday and there is the chance that rain can mix with or change to snow in parts of the area by the late morning or midday hours following right on the heels of the record-breaking warmth…small accumulations of a coating to an inch or two cannot be ruled out.

Over the weekend, another strong cold front will enter the picture across the nation’s midsection with a widespread colder-than-normal air mass on its backside and charging to the south and east. A strong storm system is likely to form along the frontal boundary zone as upper-level support arrives, and the Great Lakes may end up with an all-out blizzard come late Sunday into Monday with plenty of snow and powerful winds. In fact, there can be accumulating snow and strong winds in this same Great Lakes region on Friday from a clipper-system and this would just be an appetizer for the potential late weekend blizzard. The widespread colder-than-normal air mass reaches the eastern states by late Monday and the 20’s and 30’s will be commonplace in the Mid-Atlantic region by the time we get to next Tuesday for afternoon highs...a far cry from the past couple of days. Looking ahead, as is often the case during the month of March, the early-to-mid week cold snap in the eastern states may change dramatically to much milder conditions by the end of next week and yes, this wild weather pattern can flip again with yet another widespread cold air outbreak later in the month.

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***Significant severe weather threat next couple of days associated with powerful cold front...southern Plains to Upper Midwest later today...Lower MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic later tomorrow***

Paul Dorian

A significant severe weather threat exists for later today and tonight in the region from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest and this risk which includes possible tornadoes will shift east later tomorrow to an area that extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region. Numerous ingredients are coming together for this severe weather threat including a powerful surface cold front, warm and humid air in place, waves of energy aloft in both the northern and southern jet streams, and an incoming colder-than-normal air mass. After possible record-breaking warmth during the next two days in the Mid-Atlantic region, it’ll turn much cooler for Thursday and Friday following the passage of the strong cold front, and a widespread colder-than-normal air mass will push into the eastern states early next week.

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6:00 AM | *Very warm, unsettled next couple of days with highs near 80 degrees and the chance of showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern looks to stay very mild and unsettled for the next couple of days with afternoon highs near 80 degrees and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. It turns noticeably cooler on Thursday following the passage of a cold front, but temperatures rebound quickly and comfortably warm weather is on the table for Friday and the upcoming weekend.

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6:00 AM | **Showers from time-to-time this weekend and maybe even a strong-to-severe thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern looks to favor increasing warmth for the Tennessee Valley with high temperatures over the next couple of days in the lower 60’s and then 70 degrees will be possible by early next week. The weather will be somewhat unsettled as well during the next few days with showers possible from time-to-time and a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

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**Southern storm to produce widespread rain this weekend in the Deep south and a severe weather threat...Mid-Atlantic region on the northern fringes by late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A low pressure system that produced some beneficial rain and snow across California on Wednesday will ride along the newly activated sub-tropical jet stream and re-emerge over the south-central states early this weekend. Warm and humid air will flow northward into this system from the Gulf, and this will help to intensify and expand the storm’s precipitation shield...all good news for the Deep South where it has been quite dry in recent weeks. The influx of warm and humid air will also help to destabilize the atmosphere, leading to a severe weather threat by later Saturday and Saturday night in portions of the south-central US. This system will then push eastward and head towards the eastern seaboard on Sunday potentially bringing some mixed precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region which will be on the northern fringes of its moisture field. Much milder weather will follow across the northeastern states by the middle of next week.

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