Hurricane Isaias indeed intensified during the past 24 hours and is now right on the verge of classification as a “major” category 3 storm. Landfall is likely around midnight on Friday night near the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle. There can be some weakening of Isaias in the few hours just before landfall due to increasing wind shear; nonetheless, it will remain a dangerous hurricane with heavy rain, damaging winds, and significant storm surge along the Gulf coast. Impacts will extend northward to the Tennessee Valley on Saturday with heavy rain, damaging winds and potentially severe weather to include the risk of isolated tornadoes. Rain and wind will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms mixed into the picture as well.
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Hurricane Isaias indeed intensified overnight and is now on the doorstep of classification as a “major” category 3 storm. Landfall is expected later tonight in the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle and there can be some weakening in the last few hours just before it reaches the Gulf coast due to an increase in wind shear. Isaias should move northward early tomorrow through the northern part of Alabama into the Tennessee Valley with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts on the table for the Huntsville region…watch for flash flooding and power outages are on the table. The remnants of Isaias will then take a turn to the northeast on Sunday and move from the Tennessee Valley to the northeastern part of the country.
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The eastern Pacific Ocean is alive and well with tropical activity and now the Atlantic Basin has its first hurricane of the season which is the latest for the first hurricane in more than one hundred years. Hurricane Isaias is now pulling out of the southwestern Gulf with maximum sustained winds of around 80 mph (category 1). It is quite likely to intensify during the next 24 hours into a category 2 storm with an outside chance of climbing to “major” category 3 status on early Friday. Landfall is expected later Friday night somewhere near the western part of Florida’s Panhandle and there can be some weakening in the last few hours before Isaias reaches the Gulf coast. Regardless, Isaias will be a dangerous hurricane with significant storm surge along the Gulf coast, damaging winds, and flooding rains.
After landfall, impacts of Isaias will continue to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Saturday and all the way to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US on Sunday where rain is likely and it can be heavy at times. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel will make a dramatic right turn and bring rain and wind to southern California and northern Baja, and its vast moisture field will push all the into the northern Rocky Mountain States where it may be cold enough to produce accumulating snow. Tropical Storm Simon is likely to become a hurricane and turn into Mexico with its moisture field likely headed to the southwestern and south-central states.
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All eyes are now on Hurricane Isaias – the first hurricane this season in the Atlantic Basin and the latest first hurricane in more than one hundred years. With favorable environmental conditions headed by very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30 degrees Celsius, Isaias is likely to climb to a strong category 2 status in the near term, and a “major” category 3 classification cannot be completely ruled out. Landfall is likely to occur late Friday somewhere in the region of Mobile Bay and there can be some weakening just before landfall.
Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and high storm surge will take place along the central Gulf coast and severe weather will become a risk on Friday night and Saturday in the Deep South: especially, to the right of the northward-moving storm track. After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield likely moving as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US with some heavy rain on the table around here by later in the weekend.
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The tropics are alive and well and we now have a named tropical storm, Isaias, over the southwestern Gulf of America where water temperatures are near 30 degrees (C)...plenty capable of supporting a late season hurricane. TS Isaias is very likely to become the Atlantic Basin’s first hurricane of the season and can hit the central Gulf coast on Friday night or early Saturday...perhaps as a cat 2 hurricane. While landfall is likely to be in the region between southeast Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle, all Gulf residents from Texas to Florida should closely monitor this system.
After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield possibly moving as far as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by later in the weekend. Elsewhere on the tropical scene, Hurricane Rachel over the eastern Pacific is currently churning to the west-northwest; however, it will take a drastic turn to the northeast in coming days and head towards the northern Baja California region with impacts on the way for much of the western US including an added contribution to snow in the Northern Rocky Mountain States.
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A tropical system in the southwestern Gulf has intensified into named (Isaias) tropical storm status and it is likely to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin tropical season by the end of the week. The likely track would bring this tropical storm into the central Gulf coast region by Friday evening or so…somewhere between SE Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle. After that, the remnants of Isaias are likely to push northward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys bringing rain here on Saturday...some of which can be heavy...and there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm mixed into the picture.
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The remainder of the week will generally be warm and dry with high pressure in control across the eastern states. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will likely increase this upcoming weekend as Gulf moisture makes a push to the north into the southeastern US.
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All in all, this looks like a relatively quiet and dry week for the continental US, but tropical systems may change that in a big way by this weekend or the early part of next week. There are not one, not two, but three tropical systems that will have to be closely monitored in coming days...two in the eastern Pacific and one in the Gulf. The only one of the three systems that is currently named is “Rachel” which is a minimal hurricane in the eastern Pacific that is on a seemingly harmless westerly track during the next few days. After that, however, there are signs that “Rachel” will take a drastic turn from a westerly direction to northeasterly, and this could bring its moisture field into the southwestern US and potentially, well up to the north of there.
The second tropical wave in the eastern Pacific should strengthen in the near term to become a named tropical storm and potentially, it can attain classification as a hurricane. This trailing system is likely to turn into Mexico and ultimately, its moisture field can impact the southwestern or south-central states. Meanwhile, a tropical wave now over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of America can intensify into named tropical storm status and potentially into the season’s first hurricane for the Atlantic Basin as it pushes towards the northern Gulf region by the weekend…and potentially, well to the north of there.
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Today will be very warm across northern Alabama and there will be plenty of sunshine as well. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will rise on Friday afternoon and continue into the weekend and locally heavy rainfall is a possibility.
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A warming trend will take place this week with higher humidity levels on the way as well. It looks to be generally rain-free during the next few days and then the risk of showers and storms will tend to rise late in the week and for the weekend.
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