May gets underway on Friday, and it looks like a cooler-than-normal pattern will dominate in the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of the new month. Multiple cooler than normal air masses are likely to push into the north-central states from central Canada during those next couple of weeks and these will ultimately spread to the south and east and encompass the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. A favorable pattern for the transport of cooler-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US will feature a persistent upper-level trough centered near the Great Lakes as well as some “high-latitude blocking” up across northeastern Canada and Greenland. In addition to the expected cooler conditions, multiple rain events are on the table during the next couple of weeks beginning with one from later today into early Thursday which will impact the Mid-Atlantic region.
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An unsettled weather pattern will bring us the chance for more showers and thunderstorms today with the jet stream more activated than normal for this time of year and displaced farther to the south. This “activated” jet stream is the atmosphere’s response to the initial signs of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific with warmer-than-normal water temperatures now observed at surface level.
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An unsettled weather pattern will bring strong-to-severe thunderstorms to northern Alabama today and some of the rain will be heavy at times with as much as a couple of inches in localized areas. The overall unsettled pattern will continue into May as the jet stream has become activated and displaced farther south than usual for this time of year. This unsettled pattern will result in additional severe weather threats as well in coming days across the Tennessee Valley.
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A combination of ingredients will come together later today and tonight to enhance the risk of severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley region with a focus on the region from Arkansas to Indiana. One of the contributing factors in today’s severe weather threat is an active jet stream that has intensified in recent days across the central and southern US in an atmospheric response to the initial phase of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the south and east on Tuesday mainly to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. In fact, the threat of severe weather will likely continue well into the month of May as additional cold air masses are destined to drop southeastward from central Canada into the northern US. This evolving weather pattern will produce below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation from late April into at least the middle of May and multiple rain events are likely to be included from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard.
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The weather pattern will become quite unsettled in coming days with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be on the severe side. A deepening upper-level jet stream that will trend southward in coming days will bring more unstable conditions to the Deep South as we progress through late April and into early May.
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As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is likely to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and all signs continue to point to the increase of water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent days, but some very warm water lurks just beneath the surface, and it is “bubbling” up to the top.
The development of El Nino in the tropical Pacific is actually having some current effects on the upper air flow across the continental US with a more favorable environment for severe weather outbreaks and better opportunities for rain from the Rocky Mountain States to the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, the combination of an El Nino episode in the Pacific Ocean and an area of cooler-than-normal water in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region may result in below-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the summer and fall seasons. Should El Nino continue into the 2026-2027 winter season - and odds are good - it would also have big implications for the weather across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.
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The weather pattern remains quite warm and dry during the next few days with plenty of sunshine and afternoon temperatures generally in the lower 80’s. The weather becomes quite unsettled this weekend with the chance of rain and thunderstorms on both days.
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The weather pattern remains quite summer-like for the next couple of days with 90-degree high temperatures on the table for today and the mid-to-upper 80’s on Saturday. There will be an increasing chance of showers and storms later tomorrow as a cold front approaches the eastern states. It turns cooler on Sunday following the passage of the cold front, but temperatures rebound to quite warm levels once again by the middle of next week.
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The weather pattern remains quite summer-like for the next few days with the middle and upper 80’s on the table for afternoon highs. There will be a couple chances of showers and thunderstorms with one threat later Thursday and then another later Saturday as a cool front approaches the area.
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The weather pattern will become quite summer-like for the upcoming weekend and the first half of next week. Temperatures will peak near 80 degrees today, but then should climb to the middle 80’s from tomorrow into the middle part of next week.
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