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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: HSV
Temperatures today will remain on the warm side, but about ten degrees lower than yesterday following the passage of a frontal system. A strong front will usher in even cooler air for the weekend with highs on both days likely in the mid-to-upper 60’s.
Read MoreToday will again feature unseasonably warm conditions with afternoon highs flirting with the 90-degree mark in the metro area. It’ll be more manageable in terms of temperatures tomorrow following the passage of an initial frontal system and then even cooler this weekend behind a second front.
Read MoreA very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.
Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
Read MoreHurricane Isaias continues to intensify and can reach strong category 2 status by later today or possibly even “major” category 3 classification. Landfall is likely early tonight somewhere near the Mobile Bay region of the central Gulf coast. Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and high storm surge will take place along the central Gulf coast and severe weather will become a risk later tonight and on Saturday in the Deep South: especially, to the right of the northward-moving storm track. After tomorrow, the impact from Isaias will continue well to the north of the Gulf coast with its rain shield moving as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
Read MoreHurricane Isaias indeed intensified during the past 24 hours and is now right on the verge of classification as a “major” category 3 storm. Landfall is likely around midnight on Friday night near the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle. There can be some weakening of Isaias in the few hours just before landfall due to increasing wind shear; nonetheless, it will remain a dangerous hurricane with heavy rain, damaging winds, and significant storm surge along the Gulf coast. Impacts will extend northward to the Tennessee Valley on Saturday with heavy rain, damaging winds and potentially severe weather to include the risk of isolated tornadoes. Rain and wind will push into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms mixed into the picture as well.
Read MoreHurricane Isaias indeed intensified overnight and is now on the doorstep of classification as a “major” category 3 storm. Landfall is expected later tonight in the far western part of Florida’s Panhandle and there can be some weakening in the last few hours just before it reaches the Gulf coast due to an increase in wind shear. Isaias should move northward early tomorrow through the northern part of Alabama into the Tennessee Valley with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts on the table for the Huntsville region…watch for flash flooding and power outages are on the table. The remnants of Isaias will then take a turn to the northeast on Sunday and move from the Tennessee Valley to the northeastern part of the country.
Read MoreThe eastern Pacific Ocean is alive and well with tropical activity and now the Atlantic Basin has its first hurricane of the season which is the latest for the first hurricane in more than one hundred years. Hurricane Isaias is now pulling out of the southwestern Gulf with maximum sustained winds of around 80 mph (category 1). It is quite likely to intensify during the next 24 hours into a category 2 storm with an outside chance of climbing to “major” category 3 status on early Friday. Landfall is expected later Friday night somewhere near the western part of Florida’s Panhandle and there can be some weakening in the last few hours before Isaias reaches the Gulf coast. Regardless, Isaias will be a dangerous hurricane with significant storm surge along the Gulf coast, damaging winds, and flooding rains.
After landfall, impacts of Isaias will continue to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Saturday and all the way to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US on Sunday where rain is likely and it can be heavy at times. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel will make a dramatic right turn and bring rain and wind to southern California and northern Baja, and its vast moisture field will push all the into the northern Rocky Mountain States where it may be cold enough to produce accumulating snow. Tropical Storm Simon is likely to become a hurricane and turn into Mexico with its moisture field likely headed to the southwestern and south-central states.
Read MoreAll eyes are now on Hurricane Isaias – the first hurricane this season in the Atlantic Basin and the latest first hurricane in more than one hundred years. With favorable environmental conditions headed by very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30 degrees Celsius, Isaias is likely to climb to a strong category 2 status in the near term, and a “major” category 3 classification cannot be completely ruled out. Landfall is likely to occur late Friday somewhere in the region of Mobile Bay and there can be some weakening just before landfall.
Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and high storm surge will take place along the central Gulf coast and severe weather will become a risk on Friday night and Saturday in the Deep South: especially, to the right of the northward-moving storm track. After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield likely moving as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US with some heavy rain on the table around here by later in the weekend.
Read MoreThe tropics are alive and well and we now have a named tropical storm, Isaias, over the southwestern Gulf of America where water temperatures are near 30 degrees (C)...plenty capable of supporting a late season hurricane. TS Isaias is very likely to become the Atlantic Basin’s first hurricane of the season and can hit the central Gulf coast on Friday night or early Saturday...perhaps as a cat 2 hurricane. While landfall is likely to be in the region between southeast Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle, all Gulf residents from Texas to Florida should closely monitor this system.
After landfall, the impact from Isaias is likely to continue well to the north of the northern Gulf with its rain shield possibly moving as far as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US by later in the weekend. Elsewhere on the tropical scene, Hurricane Rachel over the eastern Pacific is currently churning to the west-northwest; however, it will take a drastic turn to the northeast in coming days and head towards the northern Baja California region with impacts on the way for much of the western US including an added contribution to snow in the Northern Rocky Mountain States.
Read MoreA tropical system in the southwestern Gulf has intensified into named (Isaias) tropical storm status and it is likely to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin tropical season by the end of the week. The likely track would bring this tropical storm into the central Gulf coast region by Friday evening or so…somewhere between SE Louisiana and the western part of Florida’s Panhandle. After that, the remnants of Isaias are likely to push northward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys bringing rain here on Saturday...some of which can be heavy...and there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm mixed into the picture.
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