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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

6:00 AM | *Cold front approaches at mid-week bringing occasional showers...maybe a thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

Becoming quite breezy and warm today in the Mid-Atlantic region on the backside of a high pressure system which is located to the east of here and afternoon temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80’s. A cold front will approach the area at mid-week and low pressure will then form along the slow-moving frontal boundary zone on Thursday. As a result, occasional showers are likely here tomorrow and tomorrow night - maybe a thunderstorm as well - and there can be lingering showers on Thursday. High pressure takes back control of the weather to close out the work week on Friday and then a weak disturbance can produce some shower activity here at the beginning of the upcoming weekend.

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6:00 AM | *Noticeably warmer next couple of days...rain threat increases at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

It’ll turn noticeably warmer in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days as high pressure pushes to the east and low-level winds shift to a southwesterly direction. A cold front will approach the area at mid-week and then low pressure will likely form along the slow-moving frontal boundary zone on Thursday. As a result, periods of rain are likely here on Wednesday and Wednesday night - maybe a thunderstorm as well - and there can be lingering showers on Thursday if the low pressure system pushes far enough to the north and west to impact the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | *A cool weekend on the way in the Mid-Atlantic region...clouds on Saturday...sun on Sunday*

Paul Dorian

Weak high pressure will take control of the weather as we close out the work week, but there will be some clouds late in the day and a couple of showers are possible tonight with the approach of a weak disturbance. Low pressure will push off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday and it’ll result in clouds across the area and a slight chance of showers. Sunshine returns on Sunday and it stays dry and sunny on Monday as well with milder temperatures to start the new work week.

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6:00 AM | **Cool and becoming quite breezy today following the passage of a cold front...cool pattern to last well into May**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front will push through the region early today paving the way for breezy and cool conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and temperatures late tonight can drop to the lower 40’s in many suburban locations. High pressure will take control on Friday, but its impact will be rather short-lived and limited as an intensifying low pressure system heads to a position just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Saturday. The DC-to-PHL-to-NYC corridor will be on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield on Saturday, but some rain cannot be ruled out. Whether this area of rain makes it into the region, the weekend will turn out to be on the cool side of normal and the overall cooler weather pattern looks likely to continue well into the month of May.

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**Cooler-than-normal pattern across much of the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of May...cooler pattern will come with multiple rain opportunities**

Paul Dorian

May gets underway on Friday, and it looks like a cooler-than-normal pattern will dominate in the eastern half of the nation to at least the middle of the new month. Multiple cooler than normal air masses are likely to push into the north-central states from central Canada during those next couple of weeks and these will ultimately spread to the south and east and encompass the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. A favorable pattern for the transport of cooler-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US will feature a persistent upper-level trough centered near the Great Lakes as well as some “high-latitude blocking” up across northeastern Canada and Greenland. In addition to the expected cooler conditions, multiple rain events are on the table during the next couple of weeks beginning with one from later today into early Thursday which will impact the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | **Showers later today into early Thursday and there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm in the mix**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will head towards the northeastern states here at mid-week and it should bring us a decent rainfall from later today into early Thursday and a strong-to-severe thunderstorm can be in the mix. High pressure takes over for the late week and then we’ll have to monitor a coastal storm on Saturday. This system can sideswipe us with some rainfall to begin the weekend or it could just miss us to the south and east....in either case, the weekend will be on the cool side and the cool pattern will continue well into May.

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6:00 AM | **Showers likely today...another decent rainfall on the way from later tomorrow into early Thursday**

Paul Dorian

A weak frontal system will approach the region later today and it can bring us a few showers from mid-morning into the mid-afternoon. A stronger low pressure system will head towards the northeastern states later Wednesday and it will likely bring us some much welcomed decent rainfall from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a strong thunderstorm mixed into the picture. High pressure takes over for the late week and we’ll have to watch a coastal storm for Saturday as it could skirt the region with some shower activity or just miss us to the south and east.

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***Severe weather risk later Monday/Monday Night with a focus on Missouri, Illinois and Indiana...threats to continue into May with an active jet stream and additional cold air outbreaks***

Paul Dorian

A combination of ingredients will come together later today and tonight to enhance the risk of severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley region with a focus on the region from Arkansas to Indiana. One of the contributing factors in today’s severe weather threat is an active jet stream that has intensified in recent days across the central and southern US in an atmospheric response to the initial phase of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the south and east on Tuesday mainly to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. In fact, the threat of severe weather will likely continue well into the month of May as additional cold air masses are destined to drop southeastward from central Canada into the northern US. This evolving weather pattern will produce below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation from late April into at least the middle of May and multiple rain events are likely to be included from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard.

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6:00 AM | *Beneficial rain over the weekend...more likely coming at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

There was some much needed rain over the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and another round is likely during the middle of the week. High pressure will be in control as we start the new work week and after a chilly start, sunshine will boost temperatures to mild levels for the afternoon. A weak frontal system approaches late Tuesday – possibly with a couple of showers - and then a strong low pressure area will impact the area at mid-week with periods of rain likely from late Wednesday into early Thursday.

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6:00 AM | **Passage of a backdoor cold front paves the way for a cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region...rain on Saturday/Saturday night...maybe lingering showers on Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A backdoor cold front will push through the area later today moving in a northeast-to-southwest direction and its passage will pave the way for an unseasonably cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition to the unseasonably cool conditions this weekend, low pressure will bring us rain; primarily, in the Saturday afternoon and nighttime time frame, but a few showers can linger into Sunday. While the weekend looks wet part of the time, it will be a beneficial rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. It turns drier and milder on Monday and then another low pressure can bring us some shower activity on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

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