As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is likely to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and all signs continue to point to the increase of water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent days, but some very warm water lurks just beneath the surface, and it is “bubbling” up to the top.
The development of El Nino in the tropical Pacific is actually having some current effects on the upper air flow across the continental US with a more favorable environment for severe weather outbreaks and better opportunities for rain from the Rocky Mountain States to the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, the combination of an El Nino episode in the Pacific Ocean and an area of cooler-than-normal water in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region may result in below-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the summer and fall seasons. Should El Nino continue into the 2026-2027 winter season - and odds are good - it would also have big implications for the weather across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.
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Temperatures will rebound some for the next few days, but it’ll then turn cooler and unsettled for the upcoming weekend. A weak system can bring occasional showers to the area today and maybe a PM thunderstorm, and then high pressure builds in on Thursday producing comfortable, dry conditions. Low pressure will likely bring a widespread rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday and temperatures will be cooler doing no better than the low-to-mid 60’s for afternoon highs.
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After a frosty start to the day, temperatures will climb to near 60 degrees later today boosted by copious amounts of sunshine with high pressure sitting overhead. As is often the case this time of year, chilly air masses won’t stick around for too long and we’ll warm to near 70 degrees on Wednesday, and to the mid-to-upper 70’s on Thursday. Looking ahead, the weekend appears to be cooler and quite unsettled with an area of low pressure likely impacting the Mid-Atlantic region...there is even the chance for a period of steady rainfall.
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Not quite done yet with the chilly air outbreaks in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures late tonight should drop to near freezing with widespread frost/freeze potential…protect sensitive plants. Radiational cooling conditions will be quite good tonight allowing temperatures to drop sharply with clear skies and light winds under a dome of high pressure. As is often the case this time of year, chilly air masses won’t stick around for too long…much warmer conditions coming for the mid and late week.
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It’ll remain quite warm today in the DC metro region, but not quite the extreme of the past couple of days as changes get underway in the overall weather pattern across the eastern states. The big change will take place later this weekend as a strong cold front arrives and this front will likely produce some much-needed rainfall here from later Saturday night into Sunday. In addition, it’ll turn much cooler for Sunday and Monday and temperatures late Monday night/early Tuesday could drop into the low-to-mid 30’s...potentially prompting frost and/or freeze advisories to be issued. A quick rebound in temperatures is likely by mid-week, but cooler-than-normal air could return to the northeastern states by the end of next week.
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The unseasonably warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue for one more day and many spots today will challenge their daily high temperature record. It’ll remain on the warm side on Friday and Saturday, but not quite the record-challenging warmth experienced here during the past couple of days. The warmer weather pattern breaks down over the weekend as a strong surface cold front heads toward the eastern states at the same time intense high pressure ridging along the coast slides to the east.
The front will bring with it a good chance of much-needed shower activity late Saturday night and Sunday morning and it’ll usher in a much cooler air mass to close out the weekend and start the new work week. In fact, temperatures late Monday night/early Tuesday are likely to drop way down to freezing or below in much of the Mid-Atlantic region which could prompt widespread frost and freeze warnings. Temperatures rebound noticeably by mid-week, but an overall pattern change will bring additional colder-than-normal air masses to the central and eastern states during late April/early May.
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The significant warmup in the DC metro region will continue for another day with temperatures soaring today to the low-to-mid 90’s and there can be record highs observed in some spots. The unseasonably warm weather pattern will breakdown this weekend with the arrival of a strong cold front on Saturday night. This frontal system will bring with it a good chance of much-needed shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and Sunday and it’ll turn much cooler for the early part of next week. In fact, temperatures late Monday night/early Tuesday could drop into the middle 30’s across the area and frost/freeze advisories may be required…a quick rebound in temperatures for the mid-week.
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Our significant warmup continues for the next two days and there can be daily high temperature records set in some areas along the I-95 corridor. A band of showers and thunderstorms developed late yesterday and impacted parts of northern Maryland last evening and a repeat performance can take place late today/early tonight. The unseasonably warm weather pattern will begin to breakdown this weekend and a strong cold front will approach the area by Saturday night/Sunday bringing with it a threat of showers. Much cooler air pushes into the northeastern states for the early part of next week and temperatures could drop into the middle 30’s late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.
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A significant warmup began in the eastern states on Monday and the next few days will feature unseasonably warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region with record high temperatures a possibility in some areas. The warmup will last through the work wee, but then a strong cold front will approach the east coast by Sunday paving the way for a colder-than-normal air mass to reach the northeastern states by the early part of next week. This may not be the end of the chillier air masses as signs point to additional outbreaks from Canada as we progress to the last week of April.
In terms of (much needed) rainfall, a complex of showers and thunderstorms developed in the overnight hours over the Great Lakes and some of this activity will likely re-develop later today in the Mid-Atlantic region. The chance of showers and thunderstorms later today will be primarily to the north of the PA/MD border; however, an impact across our northern suburbs cannot be ruled out.
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Most have been waiting for this kind of warmup in the eastern states following several false starts this season, but this may end up being a little too much on the extreme side. Not only are daily high temperature records in jeopardy this week in the Mid-Atlantic region with 90+ degrees on the table, but a few spots could experience their highest April temperatures ever recorded although it will be tough to beat the heat wave of April 1976. This warmup should last well into the upcoming weekend, but there are strong signs that another chilly air outbreak is destined to reach the northeastern part of the country by early next week. In fact, there are signs that additional colder-than-normal air masses will impact the central and eastern states during the last week of April at the same time a teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO shifts into a colder-than-normal phase for this time of year.
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