A weak frontal system will approach the region later today and it can bring us a few showers from mid-morning into the mid-afternoon. A stronger low pressure system will head towards the northeastern states later Wednesday and it will likely bring us some much welcomed decent rainfall from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a strong thunderstorm mixed into the picture. High pressure takes over for the late week and we’ll have to watch a coastal storm for Saturday as it could skirt the region with some shower activity or just miss us to the south and east.
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A combination of ingredients will come together later today and tonight to enhance the risk of severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley region with a focus on the region from Arkansas to Indiana. One of the contributing factors in today’s severe weather threat is an active jet stream that has intensified in recent days across the central and southern US in an atmospheric response to the initial phase of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the south and east on Tuesday mainly to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. In fact, the threat of severe weather will likely continue well into the month of May as additional cold air masses are destined to drop southeastward from central Canada into the northern US. This evolving weather pattern will produce below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation from late April into at least the middle of May and multiple rain events are likely to be included from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard.
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There was some much needed rain over the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and another round is likely during the middle of the week. High pressure will be in control as we start the new work week and after a chilly start, sunshine will boost temperatures to mild levels for the afternoon. A weak frontal system approaches late Tuesday – possibly with a couple of showers - and then a strong low pressure area will impact the area at mid-week with periods of rain likely from late Wednesday into early Thursday.
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A backdoor cold front will push through the area later today moving in a northeast-to-southwest direction and its passage will pave the way for an unseasonably cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition to the unseasonably cool conditions this weekend, low pressure will bring us rain; primarily, in the Saturday afternoon and nighttime time frame, but a few showers can linger into Sunday. While the weekend looks wet part of the time, it will be a beneficial rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. It turns drier and milder on Monday and then another low pressure can bring us some shower activity on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.
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High pressure will edge into the region today resulting in dry and warmer conditions to go along with mainly sunny skies after possible early morning patchy fog dissipates. A backdoor cool front will slide through the area late Friday – perhaps with a shower or thunderstorm - and the weekend will turn out to be cool as a result. In addition, showers are likely on Saturday as low pressure pushes into the northeastern part of the country and a shower or two can linger into the early hours on Sunday. The weather turns drier and warmer on Monday following what will be a cool and unsettled weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region, but another system can bring us another round of showers by Tuesday.
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As noted in the 2026 Tropical Outlook, El Nino is likely to be a major player with respect to the upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and all signs continue to point to the increase of water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Not only have surface water temperatures climbed dramatically in the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent days, but some very warm water lurks just beneath the surface, and it is “bubbling” up to the top.
The development of El Nino in the tropical Pacific is actually having some current effects on the upper air flow across the continental US with a more favorable environment for severe weather outbreaks and better opportunities for rain from the Rocky Mountain States to the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, the combination of an El Nino episode in the Pacific Ocean and an area of cooler-than-normal water in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region may result in below-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the summer and fall seasons. Should El Nino continue into the 2026-2027 winter season - and odds are good - it would also have big implications for the weather across the continental US...something we’ll monitor in the months to come.
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Temperatures will rebound some for the next few days, but it’ll then turn cooler and unsettled for the upcoming weekend. A weak system can bring occasional showers to the area today and maybe a PM thunderstorm, and then high pressure builds in on Thursday producing comfortable, dry conditions. Low pressure will likely bring a widespread rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday and temperatures will be cooler doing no better than the low-to-mid 60’s for afternoon highs.
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After a frosty start to the day, temperatures will climb to near 60 degrees later today boosted by copious amounts of sunshine with high pressure sitting overhead. As is often the case this time of year, chilly air masses won’t stick around for too long and we’ll warm to near 70 degrees on Wednesday, and to the mid-to-upper 70’s on Thursday. Looking ahead, the weekend appears to be cooler and quite unsettled with an area of low pressure likely impacting the Mid-Atlantic region...there is even the chance for a period of steady rainfall.
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Not quite done yet with the chilly air outbreaks in the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures late tonight should drop to near freezing with widespread frost/freeze potential…protect sensitive plants. Radiational cooling conditions will be quite good tonight allowing temperatures to drop sharply with clear skies and light winds under a dome of high pressure. As is often the case this time of year, chilly air masses won’t stick around for too long…much warmer conditions coming for the mid and late week.
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It’ll remain quite warm today in the DC metro region, but not quite the extreme of the past couple of days as changes get underway in the overall weather pattern across the eastern states. The big change will take place later this weekend as a strong cold front arrives and this front will likely produce some much-needed rainfall here from later Saturday night into Sunday. In addition, it’ll turn much cooler for Sunday and Monday and temperatures late Monday night/early Tuesday could drop into the low-to-mid 30’s...potentially prompting frost and/or freeze advisories to be issued. A quick rebound in temperatures is likely by mid-week, but cooler-than-normal air could return to the northeastern states by the end of next week.
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