A significant snowstorm on the table for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…
Low pressure will intensify rapidly later Sunday over the western Atlantic Ocean, and it is very likely to produce accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with significant snow of 6-12 inches on the table. The precipitation may begin as rain or a mix of rain and snow on Sunday morning/midday before changing to all snow by later in the day and the snow can come down heavily at times from late Sunday into Monday morning…potentially leading to big-time travel disruptions for the Monday morning commute. The storm will intensify rapidly as upper-level support takes on a “negative tilt” and enhances upward motion at surface levels in the Mid-Atlantic region. The possibility of a significant snow event in the I-95 corridor will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm with a “hugging” of the coast more favorable for highest accumulation amounts…this scenario is looking increasingly likely. A very cold air mass will follow the storm across much of the eastern US for the early part of next week.
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It remains quite unsettled around here today with a frontal boundary zone in close proximity. There will be periods of rain into the mid-day hours, some of the rain can be heavy, and temperatures will become quite mild climbing through the 50’s. The weekend will begin with some clearing skies on Saturday and relatively mild conditions. By early Sunday, all eyes will begin to focus on the Carolina coastline where low pressure will begin to develop. This system will head to the open waters of the western Atlantic Ocean and rapid intensification is likely to take place. Precipitation is likely to break out as rain on Sunday along much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but a changeover to snow should occur later in the day. Snow is likely to fall on Sunday night…possibly heavy at times…and it could last into Monday morning potentially causing problems for the morning commute. Some accumulations are very likely in the I-95 corridor and there is the potential for a significant snow event depending on the ultimate track of the storm. A very cold air mass for this time of year will flood the eastern states early next week in the wake of the storm system…stay tuned.
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Low pressure will intensify significantly later Sunday somewhere over the western Atlantic Ocean and it can produce rain and accumulating snow inland to the I-95 corridor. The greatest impact from the late weekend storm may come in coastal sections from New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula to the eastern part of Virginia, still a few days away to fine-tune this idea. Two important details that have to be ironed out involve the ultimate storm track and the timing of the rapid intensification. Does the storm system hug the coast or push east-to-northeast out over the western Atlantic? Does the storm system intensify rapidly right near the coast or out over the western Atlantic? The multiple waves of energy that will be critical players in this unfolding scenario will come into better focus during the next couple of days. Another important factor that can play a role in the ultimate track of the late weekend storm system is the sea surface temperature pattern near the eastern seaboard with a sharp gradient off the North Carolina coastline.
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The next couple of days will be remain quite unsettled around here with a frontal boundary zone in close proximity. Today will feature plenty of clouds, some light rain or drizzle is possible during the morning and mid-day hours, and then steadier rain should develop later in the afternoon. There will be periods of rain tonight and through the mid-day hours on Friday as low pressure rides along the frontal boundary zone. The weekend will begin with some clearing on Saturday and then all eyes will focus on a storm system nearing the Carolina coastline. This storm is likely to intensify significantly as it pushes over the western Atlantic and can throw some rain and accumulating snow back inland to the I-95 corridor. Highest impacts from the late weekend storm system may take place along coastal sections from NJ to the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern VA…stay tuned.
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The threat of a late weekend storm system continues for the Mid-Atlantic region, and many details still must be ironed out to determine potential impact levels. The greatest impact may come in coastal sections from New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula to the eastern part of Virginia, still a few days away to fine-tune this idea. Low pressure will likely push towards the Carolina coastline by later Sunday and then intensify rapidly thereafter as it moves in an east-to-northeast fashion out over the open waters of the western Atlantic. The exact track and timing of the intensification of the low-pressure system remain open questions at this point int time and are critical in the determination of the ultimate impact in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The next few days will be quite unsettled around here with a frontal boundary zone in close proximity. This front will be the conduit for multiple disturbances to ride along producing rain from time-to-time through Friday. The front will likely slip to our south by tomorrow leading to a cool down here with afternoon temperatures confined to the 40’s. Looking ahead, there is a chance we’ll have to deal with yet another late weekend storm system in the Mid-Atlantic region, but its ultimate track and impact is still in question. It turns quite cold again following that system for the early part of next week.
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This may sound familiar, but there is the chance that a storm system will travel eastward this weekend from the Deep South to the east coast, and it could threaten the Mid-Atlantic region with snow, ice and/or rain. The overall weather pattern will be quite active for much of the country in coming days with multiple storm systems to deal with and impacts from coast-to-coast. One storm system came ashore on Monday along the California coast, and it will push to the Colorado Rockies by the middle of the week. At the same time, a frontal boundary zone will start to set up from the Northern Plains to the northeastern states, and it will be the focus area for multiple disturbances leading to some snow and ice on its northern side and rain to the south.
By the early part of the weekend, another storm system will begin to take shape over the south-central US with its moisture field starting to expand. Much like the scenario that played out last weekend, this low pressure system will trek in a general eastward direction - riding along the subtropical jet stream - and potentially can reach the Mid-Atlantic coastline by late Sunday. With cold air in place and support in the upper atmosphere, this system could intensify at that point and become a threat for accumulating snow in at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic region by the latter part of the weekend.
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After a cloudy and foggy morning, skies should partially clear this afternoon and it’ll become milder with highs well up in the 50’s. A frontal boundary zone will set up right nearby at mid-week and result in unsettled weather around here for the remainder of the week with showers likely on multiple occasions. Looking ahead, we may have to deal with another late weekend storm system in the Mid-Atlantic region...more on that threat during the next few days.
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Low pressure will pull away from the coast this morning and leave behind moderately cold conditions with plenty of cloud cover. The overall pattern becomes milder for the bulk of the week with 60-degree high temperatures on the table and it becomes unsettled as well with multiple chances for rain.
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A storm system that came ashore in California at mid-week is crossing the southern states and will spread its precipitation shield into the Mid-Atlantic region from later Sunday into Sunday night. The air mass will initially be only marginally cold enough to support frozen precipitation; however, dynamical cooling in the atmosphere associated with a strong upper level jet streak should result in more favorable conditions for snow by Sunday night across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York City and up to a few inches are on the table. To the south of the PA/MD border, rain is likely to be the predominate precipitation type in the immediate DC metro area with no accumulations expected. However, snow and/or ice can mix in across some of DC’s far northern suburbs, and the northern part of Maryland that is close to the Pennsylvania border and northern Delaware can certainly see some small accumulations.
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