There was a break in the action on Sunday across the northern Mid-Atlantic region, but strong thunderstorms hit many spots across southern sections to close out the last weekend of June. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will become quite high throughout the entire Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight, and this threat will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night...both time periods will come with the risk of strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The combination of a stationary front that turns around later today and pushes northward as a warm front, and the approach of a cold front later tomorrow will keep it unsettled around here, and any thunderstorm on either day can produce torrential rainfall and damaging wind gusts. High pressure pushes in for the mid-week and then a weak cold front comes through late Thursday paving the way for a very nice Independence Day holiday on Friday featuring plenty of sunshine in the Mid-Atlantic region, lower humidity levels, and comfortably warm conditions.
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A couple of frontal systems will keep it unsettled around here for the next couple of days and temperatures will run at very warm levels. A warm front pushes northward through the region today and then a cold front approaches from the northwest on Tuesday. There can be showers and thunderstorms both today and tomorrow with these two systems and any storm can be on the strong-to-severe side with torrential rainfall and damaging wind gusts on the table. High pressure will follow the passage of the cold front at mid-week and then a weak front comes through late Thursday leading to a nice 4th of July holiday on Friday plenty of sunshine, warm and less humid conditions.
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The passage of a “back door” cool front has ushered in noticeably cooler air to the DC metro region and low-level winds will be consistent today from an east-to-northeast direction. The day should feature lots of clouds and the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night as the “back door” cool front turns around and pushes to the north as a warm front. Any storm that occurs tonight through tomorrow night can be on the strong side. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn much warmer again on Saturday, but the intense heat from earlier in the week will not make a return. The weekend closes out with plenty of sunshine on Sunday, very warm conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be remain hot here, but then it’ll turn cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).
There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.
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Today will feature high heat and humidity once again in the Mid-Atlantic region and high temperature records for the date are likely to be set in many locations. There is relief on the way, however, thanks to a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England during the next couple of days. Temperatures will be much reduced in the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon as an ocean flow of air (east-to-northwest winds) develops following the passage of the back door cool front. The transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the cool down at the end of the week will come with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe.
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The official high temperature yesterday recorded at Reagan National Airport (DCA) was 99 degrees which was just short of the record for the date. The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure parked overhead during the past couple of days will begin to break down later today and also shift slowly to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and the combination of these two systems will allow for the formation of a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England over the next couple of days. As a result, relief is in sight here in terms of temperatures and precipitation chances will be on the rise. There can be isolated shower and thunderstorm activity later today and early tonight and that threat of rain should increase on Thursday. Any storm that forms either late today or on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region can reach strong-to-severe levels. Unsettled weather conditions will continue on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and a look ahead to next week suggests temperatures could be quite reasonable as the calendar shifts from June to July.
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There were some records tied or broken on Monday and a few spots reached the century mark; however, the peak of this current hot spell comes today with numerous 100-degree readings likely all along the DC-to-Boston corridor. In fact, it is possible that 100-degree readings are experienced later today in each state all the way from Maine-to-Florida. In Philadelphia on Monday, temperatures reached 99 degrees which broke the record for the date set just one year ago, and 100 degrees is certainly on the table for this afternoon which would be the first at “PHL” since July of 2012.
There is relief in sight for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and, in some cases, there can be a dramatic drop in temperatures following the passage of a back door cool front. The overall weather pattern becomes unsettled as well with the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning on Wednesday afternoon and then increasing on Thursday...any thunderstorm that forms on either day can be strong-to-severe. Looking ahead to next week, overall temperatures look quite reasonable for much of the eastern half of the nation as the calendar transitions from June to July.
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Yesterday featured high temperatures near the 100 degree mark in many locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with 98 degrees recorded at DCA, 96 degrees at IAD , and 97 degrees at BWI. The bad news with respect to this current hot spell is that the peak of the heat may actually come today with numerous 100 degree readings on the table in the I-95 corridor. The good news is that much relief is in sight and next week looks much closer-to-normal in terms of overall temperatures.
The very strong ridge of high pressure to our north will weaken later in the week and also shift southward. As a result, the heat will not be quite as intense by the time we get to Thursday afternoon and much relief is likely by the end of the work week on Friday. In addition, the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms will return to the area on Wednesday as the ridge begins to break down and this threat of rain will increase on Thursday…any thunderstorm that forms can be strong-to-severe on both of these days.
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High heat and humidity will be the rule for the next few days in the Mid-Atlantic region with very strong high pressure ridging in control. Temperatures will climb right through the 90’s on Monday and Tuesday and likely reach the 100-degree mark in many locations. The strong ridge tends to weaken later in the weak - beginning on its northern perimeter - and this should lead to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms around here beginning at mid-week and that threat of PM rain likely lasts through the weekend. There will be a reduction in temperatures later in the week as the ridge breaks down such that we’ll likely be back to near the 90-degree mark for highs by week’s end.
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Powerful thunderstorms barreled through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor late yesterday causing widespread damaging wind reports and power outages (e.g., 250,000 customers without power in SE PA). The passage of the surface cold front has lead the way to noticeably lower humidity today in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be plenty of sunshine to go along with warm conditions.
The moderate humidity of today will give way to an extended stretch of high heat and humidity from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week. A very strong ridge of high pressure that has been stuck out west in recent days will move into the eastern states by later this weekend. This repositioning of the strong upper-level ridge will lead to high temperatures well up in the 90’s for multiple days all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...perhaps some spots can reach the 100-degree mark during this stretch.
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