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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

*2026 Tropical and Summertime Outlook*

Paul Dorian

The number of named tropical storms in 2026 is likely to be slightly below normal in the Atlantic Basin due mainly to water temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching hurricane status, and 3.2 attaining “major” designation of category 3 or higher. Based on the overall analysis of current and forecasted atmospheric and oceanic conditions, I expect to see around 12 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season with about 6 of those reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps 2 to achieve “major” classification level.

Two important factors in this year’s tropical outlook include the expected development of an El Nino episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean featuring warmer-than-normal water, and colder-than-normal water in portions of the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region (MDR). Both sea surface temperature patterns would tend to inhibit tropical storm formation and intensification in the Atlantic Basin.  In terms of summertime weather conditions across the continental US, I expect much of the nation to be cooler-than-normal and it is a mixed picture when it comes to precipitation with wetter-than-normal weather likely for the northeastern states and generally drier-than-normal conditions across the central states.  

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6:00 AM | **Another cold night on the way with widespread patchy frost late**

Paul Dorian

It remains colder-than-normal today on the heels of secondary cold frontal passage on Tuesday morning with temperatures some ten degrees or so below the average for this time of year. Temperatures later tonight can drop to the upper 20’s in many suburban locations and widespread patchy frost is indeed possible. It turns milder by the end of the week and we are setting up for a pretty nice weekend in the Philly metro region featuring sunny, dry and mild days. Much warmer weather is on the way for next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | **Another cold night on the way with patchy frost late**

Paul Dorian

It remains colder-than-normal today on the heels of secondary cold frontal passage on Tuesday morning with temperatures some five-to-ten degrees below the average for this time of year. Temperatures later tonight can drop to the low-to-mid 30’s in many suburban locations and patchy frost is indeed possible. It turns milder by the end of the week and we are setting up for a pretty nice weekend in the NYC metro region with sunny, dry, and mild days. Much warmer weather is on the way for next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | **Another cold night on the way with patchy frost late**

Paul Dorian

It remains colder-than-normal today on the heels of secondary cold frontal passage on Tuesday morning with temperatures some ten degrees or so below the average for this time of year. Temperatures later tonight can drop to the low-to-mid 30’s in many suburban locations and patchy frost is indeed possible. It turns milder by the end of the week and we are setting up for a pretty nice weekend in the DC metro region featuring sunny, dry and warm days. Much warmer weather is on the way for next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | **Near freezing in many locations late tonight...noticeably warmer for the late week and weekend**

Paul Dorian

One cold front slipped through the region on Sunday and a secondary will push through this morning and it’ll usher in even colder air than its predecessor. Temperatures today will be confined to the lower 50’s for afternoon highs which is about ten degrees below the normal for this time of year. With clear skies tonight, diminishing winds, and high pressure moving nearby, conditions will be quite favorable for temperatures to drop to near freezing in many suburban locations so prepare if there are sensitive plants out there (cover just before sunset with a light sheet or burlap). It stays quite chilly on Wednesday and temperatures could drop into the low-to-mid 30’s late Wednesday night/early Thursday and patchy frost is possible. Noticeably warmer weather returns to the Mid-Atlantic region late in the week and we may be setting up for a nice weekend with sunny, dry and warm days.

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6:00 AM | **Below freezing conditions in many suburban locations late tonight...noticeably warmer for the late week and weekend**

Paul Dorian

One cold front slipped through the region on Sunday and a secondary will push through this morning and it’ll usher in even colder air than its predecessor. Temperatures today will struggle to reach the 50 degrees for afternoon highs which is about ten degrees below the normal for this time of year. With clear skies tonight, diminishing winds, and high pressure moving nearby, conditions will be quite favorable for temperatures to drop to the 20’s in many suburban locations so prepare if there are sensitive plants out there (cover just before sunset with a light sheet or burlap). It stays quite chilly on Wednesday and temperatures could flirt with the 30 degree mark late Wednesday night/early Thursday and patchy frost is possible. Noticeably warmer weather returns to the Mid-Atlantic region late in the week and we may be setting up for a nice weekend with sunny, dry and mild days.

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6:00 AM | **Below freezing conditions in many suburban locations late tonight...noticeably warmer for the late week and weekend**

Paul Dorian

One cold front slipped through the region on Sunday and a secondary will push through this morning and it’ll usher in even colder air than its predecessor. Temperatures today will be confined to near 50 degrees for afternoon highs which is about ten degrees below the normal for this time of year. With clear skies tonight, diminishing winds, and high pressure moving nearby, conditions will be quite favorable for temperatures to drop to the upper 20’s in many suburban locations so prepare if there are sensitive plants out there (cover just before sunset with a light sheet or burlap). It stays quite chilly on Wednesday and temperatures could drop into the low-to-mid 30’s late Wednesday night/early Thursday and patchy frost is possible. Noticeably warmer weather returns to the Mid-Atlantic region late in the week and we may be setting up for a nice weekend with sunny, dry and mild days.

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6:00 AM | *At or below freezing late tomorrow night in many suburban locations*

Paul Dorian

A cold front slid through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday paving the way for colder air to start the new work week and a secondary cold front passes through early tomorrow. Temperatures today will be confined to the middle 50’s for afternoon highs and likely do no better than 50 degrees on Tuesday. By later tomorrow night, below freezing conditions are likely across many suburban locations with temperatures dropping into the upper 20’s…it turns warmer again by the end of the week.

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