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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

**El Nino intensifying across the central Pacific...comparison with recent strong events and a possible "analog" year...potential implications on the winter**

Paul Dorian

El Nino continues to intensify across the central Pacific Ocean with sea surface temperatures rising to their highest levels so far this summer season. In fact, the latest water temperatures in the region known as “3.4” are now more than two degrees above-normal which places this El Nino event into the “strong” category and, when all is said and done, it’ll likely rival the greats of recent history including 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.

In comparison with the sea surface temperatures anomalies for the full month of July with the El Nino episode of 2015-2016, many similarities appear on the maps. This specific comparison will be interesting to follow in coming months to determine if 2015-2016 could be used as an analog year for the upcoming winter outlook and provide us with some clues as to what we might expect late this year and early next year. Interestingly, the last blizzard that produced 2 feet of snow all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor took place in late January of 2016 during the late stages of that El Nino event.

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6:00 AM | **Very humid weather for a prolonged period of time on backside of "Bermuda-high"...occasional showers and possible thunderstorms...any rain can come down heavily at times**

Paul Dorian

On the heels of a warm frontal passage, humid air has pushed northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region here at mid-week and it’ll stick around for a prolonged period of time. A strong “Bermuda-high” pressure system centered over the western Atlantic Ocean will continuously pump humid and quite warm air northward during the next several days from the Gulf region to New England. There will be occasional showers today, tonight and tomorrow and thunderstorms are possible primarily during the PM hours…any rain can fall heavily and produce localized flash flooding conditions.

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6:00 AM | *"Bermuda-high" weather pattern brings us a prolonged pattern featuring quite warm and humid conditions and a daily shot of PM showers/storms*

Paul Dorian

Strong high pressure will park over the western Atlantic during the next several days and bring us rather typical “Bermuda-high” type summertime weather. On the backside of the high, a broad southwesterly flow will form along the eastern seaboard and very warm and humid air will stick around right through the upcoming weekend and there will be a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms primarily focused on the afternoon and evening hours.

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6:00 AM | **Very humid weather for a prolonged period of time on backside of "Bermuda-high"...occasional showers and possible thunderstorms...any rain can come down heavily at times**

Paul Dorian

On the heels of a warm frontal passage, humid air has pushed northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region here at mid-week and it’ll stick around for a prolonged period of time. A strong “Bermuda-high” pressure system centered over the western Atlantic Ocean will continuously pump humid and quite warm air northward during the next several days from the Gulf region to New England. There will be occasional showers today, tonight and tomorrow and thunderstorms are possible primarily during the PM hours…any rain can fall heavily and produce localized flash flooding conditions.

Read More

6:00 AM | **Very humid weather for a prolonged period of time on backside of "Bermuda-high"...occasional showers and possible thunderstorms...any rain can come down heavily at times**

Paul Dorian

On the heels of a warm frontal passage, humid air has pushed northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region here at mid-week and it’ll stick around for a prolonged period of time. A strong “Bermuda-high” pressure system centered over the western Atlantic Ocean will continuously pump humid and quite warm air northward during the next several days from the Gulf region to New England. There will be occasional showers today, tonight and tomorrow and thunderstorms are possible primarily during the PM hours…any rain can fall heavily and produce localized flash flooding conditions.

Read More

6:00 AM | *"Bermuda-high" pattern setting up along the eastern seaboard...quite warm, humid weather will dominate from mid-week through the weekend with a daily shot of PM showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

A weakening upper-level trough in the eastern US will give way to an intensifying ridge over the western Atlantic leading to a rather typical “Bermuda-high” summertime weather pattern. After a warm front pushes northward through the region later today, the stage will be set for warm and humid conditions and southwesterly flow on the backside of the Atlantic ridge will assure it’ll be a sustained period of “Bermuda-high” type weather in the eastern states. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be relatively low on Tuesday, but will climb to higher levels from tomorrow into the upcoming weekend.

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6:00 AM | *"Bermuda-high" pattern setting up along the eastern seaboard...quite warm, humid weather will dominate from mid-week through the weekend with a daily shot of PM showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

A weakening upper-level trough in the eastern US will give way to an intensifying ridge over the western Atlantic leading to a rather typical “Bermuda-high” summertime weather pattern. After a warm front pushes northward through the region later today, the stage will be set for warm and humid conditions and southwesterly flow on the backside of the Atlantic ridge will assure it’ll be a sustained period of “Bermuda-high” type weather in the eastern states. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be relatively low on Tuesday, but will climb to higher levels from tomorrow into the upcoming weekend.

Read More

6:00 AM | *"Bermuda-high" setting up and warm, humid conditions will prevail for several days*

Paul Dorian

Strong ridging will form over the western Atlantic during the next couple of days and bring rather typical “Bermuda-high” type summertime weather to the southeastern states. On the backside of the high, a broad southwesterly flow will form along the eastern seaboard and warm, humid Gulf air will stick around right into the upcoming weekend and there will be a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms.

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6:00 AM | **Much relief for today and tomorrow, but "century-mark" high temperatures return by week's end**

Paul Dorian

The passage of a frontal system in the overnight hours will have a noticeable impact around here with high temperatures some twenty degrees lower than Monday. Instead of flirting with the century mark as we did on Monday, temperatures this afternoon likely peak close to the 80-degree mark. After a moderately warm day at mid-week, the high heat will return for the latter part of the week with 100-degree highs back on the table for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

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