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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

***A rare early season “Stratospheric Warming” event and a disruption of the polar vortex...a look at widespread cold that followed in two such other November events***

Paul Dorian

There are signals that continue to point to an upcoming cold weather pattern for the central and eastern states as the early part of the winter season gets underway. These signs come from such diverse places as the stratosphere over the North Pole (re: Stratospheric Warming), the stratosphere over the tropics (re: QBO), and the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (re: MJO).

To begin, it appears as though there will be a “Stratospheric Warming” event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere in coming days which is quite a rare occurrence for this early stage of the winter season. In fact, it appears there have been only two Stratospheric Warming events in recent history that took place during the month of November...2000 and 1968...and in both of those years the month of December was quite cold across the nation. One atmospheric phenomenon that supports the idea of one (or more) “Stratospheric Warming” event(s) this winter season is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) which is a changing wind anomaly in the tropical lower stratosphere. When an “easterly” or “negative” phase of the QBO is combined with La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean – both of which represent the current situation - there is a strong tendency for an increase in “Stratospheric Warming” events and the disruption of the polar vortex. This particular teleconnection was one of the factors highlighted in the ”2025-2026 Winter Outlook” issued back in October.

Additionally, there is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affects the weather patterns across the globe. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds and rain that traverses the planet in the tropics and - depending on its location and the time of the year - it can contribute to colder-than-normal weather patterns across the central and eastern US. 

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6:00 AM | *Another chilly day in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of clouds around...more rain by Friday night*

Paul Dorian

After another chilly and cloudy day, a warm front will push through the area later tonight and the end of the work week should feature slightly milder conditions to go along with the threat of PM showers. Low pressure will track near us from late tomorrow into Saturday bringing us a continued chance of showers on Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will edge its way into the area on Sunday and the weekend should end with some sunshine on Sunday and also for the first part of next week.

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6:00 AM | *Another chilly day in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of clouds around...more rain by Friday night*

Paul Dorian

After another chilly and cloudy day, a warm front will push through the area later tonight and the end of the work week should feature slightly milder conditions to go along with the threat of PM rain. Low pressure will track near us from late tomorrow into Saturday bringing us a continued chance of rain on Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will edge its way into the area on Sunday and the weekend should end with some sunshine on Sunday and also for the first part of next week.

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6:00 AM | *Another chilly day in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of clouds around...more rain by Friday night*

Paul Dorian

After another chilly and cloudy day, a warm front will push through the area later tonight and the end of the work week should feature slightly milder conditions to go along with the threat of PM rain. Low pressure will track near us from late tomorrow into Saturday bringing us a continued chance of rain on Friday night and Saturday. High pressure should edge its way into the area on Sunday and the weekend should end with some sunshine on Sunday and also for the first part of next week.

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6:00 AM | *Low pressure pulls away from the region this morning...remains on the chilly side*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will pull away from the region this morning and the early day light rain or drizzle will come to an end…it remains on the chilly side with afternoon high temperatures within a couple degrees of 50. A warm front slides across the area later Thursday night and the end of the work week should feature milder conditions to go along with the threat of showers.  A weak cold front then crosses the area on Friday night and its passage will pave the way for a slightly cooler start to the upcoming weekend.

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6:00 AM | **Beneficial rain winds down this morning as low pressure pulls away...remains chilly**

Paul Dorian

Rain comes to an end this morning as low pressure pulls away from the region and it’ll remain on the chilly side with afternoon high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40’s…below-normal for this time of year. A warm front slides across the area later Thursday night and the end of the work week should feature slightly milder conditions to go along with the threat of showers.  A weak cold front crosses the area on Friday night and its passage will pave the way for a slightly cooler start to the upcoming weekend.

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