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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

***Another round of downpours and severe thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region as active weather pattern continues***

Paul Dorian

Our active weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic region continues for the next several days with multiple chances of heavy showers and severe thunderstorms that can produce damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. In a similar pattern to recent severe weather outbreaks, a strong wave of energy will drop southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region later today riding along a northwesterly flow of air on the peripheral of strong high pressure centered over the western states.

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6:00 AM | **Good chance of PM showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be severe**

Paul Dorian

A cold front will approach the region later today and it’ll help to increase the chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms…some of the rain later today can be heavy at times and some of the thunderstorms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. It’ll continue to be unsettled from later Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | **Good chance of PM showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be severe**

Paul Dorian

A cold front will approach the region later today and it’ll help to increase the chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms…some of the rain later today can be heavy at times and some of the thunderstorms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. It’ll continue to be unsettled from later Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.

Read More

6:00 AM | **Good chance of PM showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain can be heavy and some of the storms can be severe**

Paul Dorian

A cold front will approach the region later today and it’ll help to increase the chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms…some of the rain later today can be heavy at times and some of the thunderstorms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. It’ll continue to be unsettled from later Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.

Read More

6:00 AM | *The next frontal system will raise the chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control of the weather around here today, but then it becomes unsettled again later tomorrow with the arrival of another cold frontal system This next cold front should produce an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon and evening and it’ll likely remain somewhat unsettled for Friday and Saturday as well.

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6:00 AM | *The next frontal system will raise the chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control of the weather around here today, but then it becomes unsettled again later tomorrow with the arrival of another cold frontal system This next cold front should produce an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon and evening and it’ll likely remain somewhat unsettled for Friday and Saturday as well.

Read More

6:00 AM | *The next frontal system will raise the chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control of the weather around here today, but then it becomes unsettled again later tomorrow with the arrival of another cold frontal system This next cold front should produce an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon and evening and it’ll likely remain somewhat unsettled for Friday and Saturday as well.

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*”Very strong” El Nino conditions appearing across the tropical Pacific Ocean...El Nino likely lasts into Spring 2027 with big implications on the winter season*

Paul Dorian

Water temperatures have climbed to well above normal levels in the tropical Pacific Ocean putting this on-going El Nino event into “very strong” category assuming these anomalies are maintained for a sustained period of time...virtually a certainty. In fact, this El Nino event will likely be ranked amongst the great events during the past fifty years or so including 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016 and indeed, there is a chance that when all is said and done, it may match with some of the greats going back to the 1800’s (e.g., 1877-1878). (By the way, and this is in the speculation phase on my part, I believe we may bounce back later next year to a strong La Nina considering we’ve been in a La Nina base state for the past several years with 5 of the last 6 winters featuring La Nina conditions).

Odds are quite high that El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific will last into the winter season of 2026-2027 before it likely weakens next spring. As such, the upcoming winter can be greatly impacted by El Nino with the possible outcomes of numerous strong storms (due to the activation of the southern jet), markedly colder-than-normal temperatures across the southern US, and warmer-than-normal conditions in many of the northern states. There are many variables yet to be factored in; however, before we can have high confidence in any winter outlook and interactions between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans to the El Nino event in the Pacific are still unknown.

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