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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:00 | **Big-time cold frontal passage on Friday night brings in the coolest air mass so far this season...frost/freeze possible by early Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A frontal system passed through the region last night and high temperatures this afternoon will be some 15-20 degrees lower than yesterday and there is the chance for some shower activity as the front has stalled out in the nearby vicinity. An even stronger cold front arrives on Friday night likely bringing additional showers to the area and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in behind it for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures should drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend with a frost/freeze possible and there may even be snow shower activity up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.

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6:00 | **Big-time cold frontal passage on Friday night brings in the coolest air mass so far this season...frost/freeze possible by early Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A frontal system passed through the region last night and high temperatures this afternoon will be some 15-20 degrees lower than yesterday with plenty of sunshine. An even stronger cold front arrives on Friday night likely bringing additional showers to the area and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in behind it for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures should drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend with a frost/freeze possible and there may even be snow shower activity up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.

Read More

6:00 | **Big-time cold frontal passage on Friday night brings in the coolest air mass so far this season...frost/freeze possible by early Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A frontal system passed through the region last night and high temperatures this afternoon will be some 15-20 degrees lower than yesterday with a mix of clouds and sun….maybe a shower. An even stronger cold front arrives on Friday night likely bringing additional showers to the area and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in behind it for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures should drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend with a frost/freeze possible and there may even be snow shower activity up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.

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6:00 AM | **First good snow in the higher elevations winds down this morning**

Paul Dorian

Another chilly day is in store for the region with rain likely and it can mix with snow at times in the metro area. Several inches of snow are likely in elevations around 9 or 10,000 feet before the storm winds down later today. Widespread frost/freeze is possible late tonight with temperatures dropping to near freezing in many locations. It’ll become drier and warmer again for the weekend.

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*2026-2027 Winter Outlook by Arcfield Weather*

Paul Dorian

A very strong El Nino event will be one of the key players this upcoming winter season with warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean likely to last all the way into next spring. Other factors include a positive (westerly) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and somewhat favorable prospects for a “polar vortex disruption” and “stratospheric warming”; especially, during the second half of the winter. By pumping massive amounts of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, a very strong El Nino typically amps up the sub-tropical (southern) branch of the jet stream and an overall stormy weather pattern is likely to be the result from coast-to-coast. There is the potential for numerous storm systems to travel from California to across the southern states and then potentially, ride up near or along the US east coast.

Temperatures are often warmer-than-normal across the northern US during a very strong El Nino winter season and colder-than-normal conditions are typical in many of the southern states. In the Mid-Atlantic region, despite the possibility of an overall slightly warmer-than-normal winter season, there can be above-normal snowfall amounts given the idea that we may be dealing with numerous storm systems in the eastern states...one or two of which can become blockbuster snowstorms. All it takes is for one or two of these storm systems to team up with an Arctic air outbreak and above-normal seasonal snowfall amounts can take place in a hurry...and this prospect exists in the Mid-Atlantic region including along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. 

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6:00 AM | **Chance of showers later today and again on Friday...unseasonably chilly weekend with widespread frost/freeze possible**

Paul Dorian

Today will feature unseasonably warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and clouds will increase ahead of a frontal system. This front can bring a few PM showers and thunderstorms to the area and high temperatures should drop by 15 degrees or so from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon. An even stronger cold front arrives on Friday night likely with additional shower and thunderstorm activity and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures are likely to drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend with a widespread frost/freeze possible and there may even be snow showers up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.

Read More

6:00 AM | **Chance of showers later today and again on Friday...unseasonably chilly weekend with widespread frost/freeze possible**

Paul Dorian

Today will feature unseasonably warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and clouds will increase ahead of a frontal system. This front can bring a few PM showers and thunderstorms to the area and high temperatures should drop by 15 degrees or so from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon. An even stronger cold front arrives on Friday night likely with additional shower and thunderstorm activity and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures are likely to drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend with a widespread frost/freeze possible and there may even be snow showers up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.

Read More

6:00 AM | **Chance of showers later today and again on Friday...unseasonably chilly weekend with widespread frost/freeze possible**

Paul Dorian

Today will feature unseasonably warm conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and clouds will increase ahead of a frontal system. This front can bring a few PM showers and thunderstorms to the area and high temperatures should drop by 15 degrees or so from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon. An even stronger cold front arrives on Friday night likely with additional shower and thunderstorm activity and the coolest air mass so far this season pushes in for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures are likely to drop into the 30’s for overnight lows during the weekend with a widespread frost/freeze possible and there may even be snow showers up in the mountains to our north and west…a brief taste of winter.

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6:00 AM | *Quite warm for the next couple of days with highs near 90 degrees...cooler this weekend*

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Isaias continues to intensify and can reach strong category 2 status by later today or possibly even “major” category 3 classification. Landfall is likely early tonight somewhere near the Mobile Bay region of the central Gulf coast.  Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and high storm surge will take place along the central Gulf coast and severe weather will become a risk later tonight and on Saturday in the Deep South: especially, to the right of the northward-moving storm track. After tomorrow, the impact from Isaias will continue well to the north of the Gulf coast with its rain shield moving as far north as the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.

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