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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

*Arctic sea ice has reached its minimum extent for the year...continues to show resiliency...another summer (melting) season with nearly normal to slightly below-normal temperatures*

Paul Dorian

It is likely that Arctic sea ice extent has reached its minimum for the year which is slightly higher than last year’s level and well above the record minimum amount observed in 2012. Temperatures in the Arctic region during the just ended summer season continued to follow a very consistent pattern of recent years, measuring nearly normal to slightly colder than normal. It is the temperatures in the summer months of June, July, and August which are critical when it comes to Arctic sea ice extent as this is the melting season up in that part of the world. Arctic sea ice extent has been running at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s; however, it has shown resiliency for the last dozen years or so both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to slightly below-normal levels in the summer season and warmer-than-normal conditions during the coldest nine months of the year is the increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.

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6:00 AM | *Somewhat unsettled next few days with showers possible from time-to-time...watching the tropics*

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region last night, but will linger off the coast for awhile and create some unsettled conditions across the Mid-Atlantic for the next few days. As a result, clouds will be rather plentiful on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and a few showers cannot be ruled out on each day. Strong high pressure will build into southeastern Canada early next week and we’ll have to monitor the movement of tropical systems over the western Atlantic for potential impact along the east coast.

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6:00 AM | *Still somewhat unsettled today with the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains somewhat unsettled today with the threat of PM showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level trough pushes through the Great Lakes region. The overall weather pattern will become more settled for the weekend and early part of next week with sunshine prevailing on each day and temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80’s for afternoon highs.  

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6:00 AM | *Somewhat unsettled next few days with showers possible from time-to-time...watching the tropics*

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region last night, but will linger off the coast for awhile and create some unsettled conditions across the Mid-Atlantic for the next few days. As a result, clouds will be rather plentiful on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and a few showers cannot be ruled out on each day. Strong high pressure will build into southeastern Canada early next week and we’ll have to monitor the movement of tropical systems over the western Atlantic for potential impact along the east coast.

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6:00 AM | *Somewhat unsettled next few days with showers possible from time-to-time...watching the tropics*

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region last night, but will linger off the coast for awhile and create some unsettled conditions across the Mid-Atlantic for the next few days. As a result, clouds will be rather plentiful on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and a few showers cannot be ruled out on each day. Strong high pressure will build into southeastern Canada early next week and we’ll have to monitor the movement of tropical systems over the western Atlantic for potential impact along the east coast.

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6:00 AM | *A decent weather pattern for the next several days*

Paul Dorian

The weather to close out the week and for the next several days should feature plenty of sunshine on a daily basis with high temperatures not far from the 80-degree mark. There will be a weak disturbance nearby early next week, but any precipitation associated with it is likely to be confined to the mountainous areas west of here.

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**An active tropical scene with Tropical Storm “Humberto” and the likely-to-be named “Imelda” which can impact the Bahamas this weekend and potentially the Southeast US**

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin is quite active with three tropical systems of note as we head towards the end of September. There is a newly named Tropical Storm Humberto situated to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, a likely-to-be named Imelda which is now located near the Dominican Republic, and a weakening Hurricane Gabrielle in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is the likely-to-be named Imelda that may be of most concern at this point as it could threaten the Bahamas this weekend and potentially has a chance of impacting the Southeast US.

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6:00 AM | *Setting up for a nice weekend with plenty of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday and moderately warm conditions*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains quite unsettled today with the threat of showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level trough drops into the Great Lakes. After a possible lingering shower on Friday, the overall weather pattern will become more settled by the weekend with sunshine prevailing on both Saturday and Sunday and temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80’s for afternoon highs.  

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6:00 AM | **Occasional rain through tonight with embedded thunderstorms...some of the rain will be heavy...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure has developed in the Ohio Valley and it will push northeastward to New England during the next 24 hours or so riding along a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. The combination of the low pressure system and front will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region through tonight…some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe. The weather remains somewhat unsettled for Friday and the upcoming weekend with the chance of a couple of showers on each day.

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