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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

***An active and cold weather pattern setting up for the second half of January across much of the northern US...extreme cold is on the table***

Paul Dorian

After a couple of moderately cold days to start the week in the Mid-Atlantic region, it’ll turn milder on Wednesday ahead of the next cold frontal system. That mid-week cold front will usher in a colder air mass later this week, and it appears the overall weather pattern is setting up for multiple cold air outbreaks during the second half of January, and this will include the possibility of extreme cold.

In addition, the evolving weather pattern will likely be quite active as well featuring strong high pressure ridging near Alaska, high latitude blocking across northern Canada, and a large-scale and intense trough of low pressure centered over the eastern states. Multiple short-wave streams of energy will rotate through the large-scale trough, and each will have to be monitored to see if they can produce any appreciable snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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6:00 AM | **Moderate cold to start the week...active and cold pattern setting up for later this week and weekend**

Paul Dorian

The week will start off with dry weather and moderately cold conditions following the passage of a cold front on Sunday and another cold frontal passage is expected on Wednesday. Ahead of the next cold front, it’ll turn milder on Wednesday and there can be some rain shower activity. After that, the weather pattern gets quite active across the eastern states and a storm system can develop in the colder air mass on Thursday bringing the chance of snow or rain changing to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region…lots of details remain to be ironed out.

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6:00 AM | **Moderate cold to start the week...active and cold pattern setting up for later this week and weekend**

Paul Dorian

The week will start off with dry weather and moderately cold conditions following the passage of a cold front on Sunday and another cold frontal passage is expected on Wednesday. Ahead of the next cold front, it’ll turn milder on Wednesday and there can be some rain shower activity. After that, the weather pattern gets quite active across the eastern states and a storm system can develop in the colder air mass on Thursday bringing the chance of snow or rain changing to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region…lots of details remain to be ironed out.

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6:00 AM | **Moderate cold to start the week...active and cold pattern setting up for later this week and weekend**

Paul Dorian

The week will start off with dry weather and moderately cold conditions following the passage of a cold front on Sunday and another cold frontal passage is expected on Wednesday. Ahead of the next cold front, it’ll turn milder on Wednesday and there can be some rain shower activity. After that, the weather pattern gets quite active across the eastern states and a storm system can develop in the colder air mass on Thursday bringing the chance of snow or rain changing to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region…lots of details remain to be ironed out.

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6:00 AM | **Mild with showers later today/early tonight...more widespread rain on Saturday and it can be heavy at times**

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will feature some rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region with showers likely later today/early tonight and then more widespread rain on Saturday. The showers later tonight and early tonight will be associated with a weakening frontal system and then low pressure lifts from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada on Saturday bringing soaking rain to this area…some of the rain on Saturday can be heavy at times. It’ll be rather mild today with temperatures climbing into the 50’s, but then they’ll likely hold in the 40’s on Saturday, and it turns colder by later Sunday and Monday (and windy as well) after the passage of a cold front.

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6:00 AM | **Mild with showers later today/early tonight...more widespread rain on Saturday and it can be heavy at times**

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will feature some rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region with showers likely later today/early tonight and then more widespread rain on Saturday. The showers later tonight and early tonight will be associated with a weakening frontal system and then low pressure lifts from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada on Saturday bringing soaking rain to this area…some of the rain on Saturday can be heavy at times. It’ll be rather mild today with temperatures climbing into the 50’s, but then they’ll likely hold in the 40’s on Saturday, and it turns colder by later Sunday and Monday (and windy as well) after the passage of a cold front.

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6:00 AM | **Mild with showers later today/early tonight...more widespread rain on Saturday and it can be heavy at times**

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will feature some rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region with showers likely later today/early tonight and then more widespread rain on Saturday. The showers later tonight and early tonight will be associated with a weakening frontal system and then low pressure lifts from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada on Saturday bringing soaking rain to this area…some of the rain on Saturday can be heavy at times. It’ll be rather mild today with temperatures climbing into the 50’s, but then they’ll likely hold in the 40’s on Saturday, and it turns colder by later Sunday and Monday (and windy as well) after the passage of a cold front.

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**Mild with PM showers on Friday...more widespread rainfall on Saturday and some of it can be heavy...turns windy, colder later Sunday into Monday...potentially wintry later next week/weekend**

Paul Dorian

Much warmer-than-normal air that originated over the Pacific Ocean has enveloped much of the nation this week and some of this will reach the northeastern states on Friday with high temperatures likely well up in the 50’s in many locations. It’ll turn out cooler on Saturday with a soaking rainfall, but still warmer-than-normal for this time of year. The milder weather will come to an end later this weekend with the passage of a strong cold front that’ll usher in colder and windy weather conditions for later Sunday into Monday.

By later next week, some important changes will begin to take place in the upper atmosphere across North America. First, an intense upper-level ridge of high pressure is likely to form near Alaska and the west coast of Canada replacing a trough of low pressure that has dominated that region in recent weeks. At the same time, an upper-level trough of low pressure will deepen over the eastern half of the US in response to a more active subtropical jet stream that has been largely missing in action in recent weeks. This combination will increase the chance for additional cold air intrusions into the US from Canada beginning later next week and can increase the chance for storms to develop across the southern and eastern states.

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6:00 AM | *Mild pattern into the weekend with plenty of rain on the way*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a weak cold front last night may knock off a few degrees from yesterday’s high temperatures, but we should still reach into above-normal territory. It becomes even milder on Friday and Saturday ahead of the next cold frontal system with temperatures on both days likely nearing 60 degrees. Occasional showers are likely on Friday to go along with those milder conditions and there will be periods of rain on Friday night and Saturday...some of the rain can be heavy at times. A cold front passes through the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and it’ll turn chilly Sunday and even colder on Monday.

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