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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

**A cold Turkey Day on the way...powerful winds to set up by Thursday night and Friday…Great Lakes snow machine gets turned on during this Arctic outbreak...weekend storm Upper Midwest/GL/OV**

Paul Dorian

It is looking like a cold Turkey Day across the Mid-Atlantic region with well below-normal temperatures following the mid-week passage of a strong cold front. A secondary cold front arrives later Thursday, and winds will increase markedly on Thursday night and Friday behind this second frontal passage to go along with the colder-than-normal conditions. The chill will stick around right into the upcoming weekend throughout the northeastern part of the country. In terms of snow, this late week Arctic air outbreak will be the catalyst for another Great Lakes snow event in those areas just downstream of the still relatively warm waters and, in some cases, it may be intense with substantial lake-effect snow accumulations. Looking to the weekend, a new storm system could bring significant snowfall to portions of the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and again the Great Lakes region.

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6:00 AM | **Setting up for a cold Turkey Day following the mid-week passage of strong cold front...strong winds by Thursday night and Friday**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control of the weather for another day producing some sunshine here today, light winds, and temperatures on the chilly side with afternoon highs near 50 degrees. A strong cold front approaches the area later tomorrow and the pushes through at mid-week. This system will bring more welcome rain to the area from later tomorrow into Wednesday and its passage will usher in an unseasonably cold air mass for Thanksgiving Day and a secondary cold frontal passage will ensure unseasonably cold weather for Friday and Saturday as well. The winds will become a noticeable factor on Thanksgiving Day from a northwesterly direction and then very strong on Thursday night and Friday. This late week Arctic blast will produce another Great Lakes snow event for those areas just downstream of the still relatively warm lakes, and a few snow showers could make their way all the way into the I-95 corridor.

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6:00 AM | **Setting up for a cold Turkey Day following the mid-week passage of strong cold front...strong winds by Thursday night/Friday**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control of the weather for another day producing some sunshine here today, light winds, and temperatures on the chilly side with afternoon highs near 50 degrees. A strong cold front approaches the area later tomorrow and the pushes through at mid-week. This system will bring more welcome rain to the area from later tomorrow into Wednesday and its passage will usher in an unseasonably cold air mass for Thanksgiving Day and a secondary cold frontal passage will ensure unseasonably cold weather for Friday and Saturday as well. The winds will become a noticeable factor on Thanksgiving Day from a northwesterly direction and then very strong on Thursday night and Friday. This late week Arctic blast will produce another Great Lakes snow event for those areas just downstream of the still relatively warm lakes, and a few snow showers could make their way all the way into the I-95 corridor.

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6:00 AM | **Setting up for a cold Turkey Day following the mid-week passage of strong cold front...strong winds by Thursday night and Friday**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will remain in control of the weather for another day producing some sunshine here today, light winds, and temperatures on the chilly side with afternoon highs near 50 degrees. A strong cold front approaches the area later tomorrow and the pushes through at mid-week. This system will bring more welcome rain to the area from later tomorrow into Wednesday and its passage will usher in an unseasonably cold air mass for Thanksgiving Day and a secondary cold frontal passage will ensure unseasonably cold weather for Friday and Saturday as well. The winds will become a noticeable factor on Thanksgiving Day from a northwesterly direction and then very strong on Thursday night and Friday. This late week Arctic blast will produce another Great Lakes snow event for those areas just downstream of the still relatively warm lakes, and a few snow showers could make their way all the way into the I-95 corridor.

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*The role of the weather in the assassination of President Kennedy on November 22nd, 1963*

Paul Dorian

The weather in Dallas, Texas had been rainy, and the weather forecast was for more rain on November 22nd, 1963. If the forecast had turned out to be correct with more rain on that fateful day, then that would have likely meant that a plexiglass bubble top would have been used on President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 Lincoln Convertible on a planned motorcade through the Dallas metro region. But the weather cleared unexpectedly, the protective top was removed from the car, and shots rang out in the early afternoon hours at Dealey Plaza killing the 35th President and seriously wounding Texas Governor John Connally.

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6:00 AM | *More beneficial rainfall coming tonight to the Mid-Atlantic region and another shot comes on Tuesday*

Paul Dorian

High pressure pushes off the coast today and low pressure will track nearby from tonight into early Saturday. As a result, the chance for more beneficial rain in the Mid-Atlantic region will increase tonight and continue into early Saturday. High pressure will then edge its way into the area tomorrow night and this should result in dry conditions and some sunshine here on both Sunday and Monday.

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6:00 AM | *More beneficial rainfall coming tonight to the Mid-Atlantic region and another shot comes on Tuesday*

Paul Dorian

High pressure pushes off the coast today and low pressure will track nearby from tonight into early Saturday. As a result, the chance for more beneficial rain in the Mid-Atlantic region will increase tonight and continue into early Saturday. High pressure will then edge its way into the area tomorrow night and this should result in dry conditions and some sunshine here on both Sunday and Monday.

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6:00 AM | *More beneficial rainfall coming tonight to the Mid-Atlantic region and another shot comes on Tuesday*

Paul Dorian

High pressure pushes off the coast today and low pressure will track nearby from tonight into early Saturday. As a result, the chance for more beneficial rain will become quite high here late today and especially during the nighttime hours. High pressure will then edge its way into the area tomorrow night and this should result in dry conditions and some sunshine here on both Sunday and Monday.

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***A rare early season “Stratospheric Warming” event and a disruption of the polar vortex...a look at widespread cold that followed in two such other November events***

Paul Dorian

There are signals that continue to point to an upcoming cold weather pattern for the central and eastern states as the early part of the winter season gets underway. These signs come from such diverse places as the stratosphere over the North Pole (re: Stratospheric Warming), the stratosphere over the tropics (re: QBO), and the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (re: MJO).

To begin, it appears as though there will be a “Stratospheric Warming” event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere in coming days which is quite a rare occurrence for this early stage of the winter season. In fact, it appears there have been only two Stratospheric Warming events in recent history that took place during the month of November...2000 and 1968...and in both of those years the month of December was quite cold across the nation. One atmospheric phenomenon that supports the idea of one (or more) “Stratospheric Warming” event(s) this winter season is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) which is a changing wind anomaly in the tropical lower stratosphere. When an “easterly” or “negative” phase of the QBO is combined with La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean – both of which represent the current situation - there is a strong tendency for an increase in “Stratospheric Warming” events and the disruption of the polar vortex. This particular teleconnection was one of the factors highlighted in the ”2025-2026 Winter Outlook” issued back in October.

Additionally, there is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affects the weather patterns across the globe. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds and rain that traverses the planet in the tropics and - depending on its location and the time of the year - it can contribute to colder-than-normal weather patterns across the central and eastern US. 

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6:00 AM | *Another chilly day in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of clouds around...more rain by Friday night*

Paul Dorian

After another chilly and cloudy day, a warm front will push through the area later tonight and the end of the work week should feature slightly milder conditions to go along with the threat of PM showers. Low pressure will track near us from late tomorrow into Saturday bringing us a continued chance of showers on Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will edge its way into the area on Sunday and the weekend should end with some sunshine on Sunday and also for the first part of next week.

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