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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

***Severe weather risk later today with a focus on Missouri and Illinois...threats to continue into May with an active jet stream and additional cold air outbreaks***

Paul Dorian

A combination of ingredients will come together later today and tonight to enhance the risk of severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley region with a focus on Missouri and Illinois. One of the contributing factors in today’s severe weather threat is an active jet stream that has intensified in recent days across the central and southern US in response to the initial phase of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the south and east on Tuesday mainly to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. In fact, the threat of severe weather will likely continue well into the month of May as additional cold air masses are destined to drop southeastward from central Canada into the northern US. This evolving weather pattern will produce below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the nation from late April into at least the middle of May and multiple rain events are likely to be included from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard.

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6:00 AM | *Beneficial rain over the weekend...more likely coming at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

There was some much needed rain over the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and another round is likely during the middle of the week. High pressure will be in control as we start the new work week and after a chilly start, sunshine will boost temperatures to mild levels for the afternoon. A weak frontal system approaches late Tuesday – possibly with a couple of showers - and then a strong low pressure area will impact the area at mid-week with periods of rain likely from late Wednesday into early Thursday.

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6:00 AM | *Beneficial rain over the weekend...more likely coming at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

There was some much needed rain over the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and another round is likely during the middle of the week. High pressure will be in control as we start the new work week and after a chilly start, sunshine will boost temperatures to mild levels for the afternoon. A weak frontal system approaches late Tuesday – possibly with a couple of showers - and then a strong low pressure area will impact the area at mid-week with periods of rain likely from late Wednesday into early Thursday.

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6:00 AM | *Beneficial rain over the weekend...more likely coming at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

There was some much needed rain over the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and another round is likely during the middle of the week. High pressure will be in control as we start the new work week and after a chilly start, sunshine will boost temperatures to mild levels for the afternoon. A weak frontal system approaches late Tuesday – possibly with a couple of showers - and then a strong low pressure area will impact the area at mid-week with periods of rain likely from late Wednesday into early Thursday.

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6:00 AM | **Passage of a backdoor cold front paves the way for a cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region...rain on Saturday/Saturday night...maybe lingering showers on Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A backdoor cold front will push through the area later today moving in a northeast-to-southwest direction and its passage will pave the way for an unseasonably cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition to the unseasonably cool conditions this weekend, low pressure will bring us rain; primarily, in the Saturday/Saturday night time frame, but a few showers can linger into Sunday. While the weekend looks wet for much of the time, it will be a beneficial rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. It turns drier and milder on Monday and then another low pressure can bring us some shower activity on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

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6:00 AM | **Passage of a backdoor cold front paves the way for a cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region...rain on Saturday/Saturday night...maybe lingering showers on Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A backdoor cold front will push through the area later today moving in a northeast-to-southwest direction and its passage will pave the way for an unseasonably cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition to the unseasonably cool conditions this weekend, low pressure will bring us rain; primarily, in the Saturday afternoon and nighttime time frame, but a few showers can linger into Sunday. While the weekend looks wet part of the time, it will be a beneficial rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. It turns drier and milder on Monday and then another low pressure can bring us some shower activity on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

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6:00 AM | **Passage of a backdoor cold front paves the way for a cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region...rain on Saturday/Saturday night...maybe lingering showers on Sunday**

Paul Dorian

A backdoor cold front will push through the area later today moving in a northeast-to-southwest direction and its passage will pave the way for an unseasonably cool weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition to the unseasonably cool conditions this weekend, low pressure will bring us rain; primarily, in the Saturday/Saturday night time frame, but a few showers can linger into Sunday. While the weekend will be wet for much of the time, it will be a beneficial rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. It turns drier and milder on Monday and then another low pressure can bring us some shower activity on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

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6:00 AM | **An increasingly unstable environment brings the risk of severe weather to the central states and Deep South in coming days**

Paul Dorian

The weather pattern will become quite unsettled in coming days with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be on the severe side. A deepening upper-level jet stream that will trend southward in coming days will bring more unstable conditions to the Deep South as we progress through late April and into early May.

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6:00 AM | **Drier and warmer today, but weekend shaping up to be quite cool and unsettled with some rain**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will edge into the region today resulting in dry and warmer conditions to go along with copious amounts of sunshine after early morning patchy fog dissipates. A backdoor cool front will slide through the area late Friday – perhaps with a shower or thunderstorm - and the weekend will turn out to be quite cool as a result. In addition, showers are likely on Saturday as low pressure pushes into the northeastern part of the country and a shower or two can linger into the early hours on Sunday. The weather turns drier and warmer on Monday following what will be a cool and unsettled weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region, but another system can bring us another round of showers by Tuesday.

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6:00 AM | **Drier and warmer today, but weekend shaping up to be cool and unsettled with some rain**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will edge into the region today resulting in dry and warmer conditions to go along with mainly sunny skies after possible early morning patchy fog dissipates. A backdoor cool front will slide through the area late Friday – perhaps with a shower or thunderstorm - and the weekend will turn out to be cool as a result. In addition, showers are likely on Saturday as low pressure pushes into the northeastern part of the country and a shower or two can linger into the early hours on Sunday. The weather turns drier and warmer on Monday following what will be a cool and unsettled weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region, but another system can bring us another round of showers by Tuesday.

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