On the heels of a warm frontal passage, humid air has pushed northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region here at mid-week and it’ll stick around for a prolonged period of time. A strong “Bermuda-high” pressure system centered over the western Atlantic Ocean will continuously pump humid and quite warm air northward during the next several days from the Gulf region to New England. There will be occasional showers today, tonight and tomorrow and thunderstorms are possible primarily during the PM hours…any rain can fall heavily and produce localized flash flooding conditions.
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A weakening upper-level trough in the eastern US will give way to an intensifying ridge over the western Atlantic leading to a rather typical “Bermuda-high” summertime weather pattern. After a warm front pushes northward through the region later today, the stage will be set for warm and humid conditions and southwesterly flow on the backside of the Atlantic ridge will assure it’ll be a sustained period of “Bermuda-high” type weather in the eastern states. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be relatively low on Tuesday, but will climb to higher levels from tomorrow into the upcoming weekend.
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It is rather warm and humid today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it looks like we better get used to these conditions as a “Bermuda-high” weather pattern is setting up for the eastern states. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the eastern US here at the beginning of the week will dissipate shortly and strong ridging will form over the western Atlantic by mid-week. As such, a broad southwesterly flow of air will develop along the Atlantic Seaboard and likely persist for several days bringing warm and humid conditions to the I-95 corridor and moisture levels will be high enough to produce a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms.
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An upper-level trough has moved into the eastern states and it will lead to an unsettled start to the new work week with an associated frontal system pushing through the region tonight. As a result, there can be additional occasional showers and thunderstorms through tonight and any rain that falls can come down heavily at times. A warm front will then push northward through the area later tomorrow setting the stage for the remainder of the week to remain quite warm and humid and there will be a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.
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One upper-level trough will move away from the northeastern states as we end the work week and then another one in this direction later in the weekend. As a result, generally rain-free conditions are likely both today and on Saturday and then there will be an increasing shot of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday and Monday.
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A comfortably warm air mass pushed into our area on Wednesday on the heels of a frontal passage and it will stick around into the upcoming weekend…no extreme heat is in sight. There can be a couple of afternoon showers in the area as the the atmosphere is still a bit unstable, and then Friday and Saturday look to be rain-free. Unsettled weather returns for Sunday and Monday as the next system approaches from the Midwest with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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After a very active afternoon and evening in the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday, there will be much improvement here at mid-week as a comfortable air mass pushes in from our northwest. Comfortably warm weather will continue during the remainder of the week and then another system could have an impact by the latter part of the weekend and the early part of next week.
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While not everyone will get hit, the atmosphere is fueling up to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are on the table as well as torrential rainfall from this significant system with the greatest chance of flash flooding likely in the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., E PA, N NJ, NYC) and the greatest chance of severe weather likely in the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva). Multiple ingredients are coming together to raise the likelihood of this very active weather pattern for later today and tonight.
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A significant storm system to impact the Mid-Atlantic region…
The next couple of days will be quite unsettled across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US as an upper-level trough of low pressure sends spokes of energy our way from the Great Lakes. As a result, there will be numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region…some of the storms can be severe and some of the rain will be heavy. The best chance for the severe weather will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva) and the best chance for flooding rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., NE MD, eastern PA, NJ, NYC)…watch out for localized flash flooding. Surface low pressure will develop later today underneath the upper-level trough and spin around quite slowly extending the threat of rain into the mid-week.
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Numerous ingredients will come together during the next couple of days to raise the possibility of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. In an overall pattern quite similar to a week ago, strong upper-level ridging is currently centered over the Rocky Mountain States, and the outer periphery of this system features northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes. Embedded within this northwesterly flow will be an intensifying upper-level jet streak on Tuesday that’ll drop to the south and east enhancing upper motion in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough of low pressure is currently positioned over the southeastern part of Canada, and it will add fuel to the fire by sending spokes of energy into the northeastern states during the next couple of days. Finally, not to be outdone by its upper-level counterparts, the surface level will get involved as low pressure will deepen over the Delmarva Peninsula on Tuesday and there will be a secondary surface low unfolding over western NY State.
All of these ingredients can result in severe thunderstorm activity during the next couple of days with a focus on Tuesday afternoon and evening and there can be torrential rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with 3+ inches on the table. The best chance of severe weather on Tuesday will likely be across the southern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., DC, Delmarva), and the best chance of soaking rainfall will likely be across the northern Mid-Atlantic (e.g., eastern PA, NJ, NYC), but some of these details still have to be worked out.
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