Today will be another cold and windy day in the Mid-Atlantic region with well below-normal temperatures and gusts up to 35 mph or so. The combination of departing strong low pressure out over the Atlantic Ocean and an incoming high pressure system in the middle of the country is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the region; hence, winds will be strong throughout the day from a northwesterly direction. Temperatures moderate this weekend with afternoon highs back to 40+ degrees by Sunday and it’ll turn even milder during the first half of next week.
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Arctic air covers much of the nation again today with a continuing tight grip on the central states where numerous daily low temperature records have been set all the way from the Dakotas to Texas and, in a few cases, monthly low temperature records have been challenged. The average temperature across the continental US earlier today was 15.0°F below the average for this time of year and, in a few spots, temperatures were between 45 and 50 degrees below the average (e.g., Nebraska, SW Missouri). Temperatures will gradually moderate over the upcoming weekend and next week promises to feature above-normal temperatures across a wide part of the nation. It is, however, quite likely that additional very cold air masses will be able to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as the month of March gets underway.
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As surface low pressure intensifies today out over the western Atlantic, a northern stream wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will pass directly over the Mid-Atlantic region and this will enhance upward motion and produce quite unstable conditions. As a result, there is likely to be some snow or snow shower activity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and small accumulations of a coating to an inch or so are possible…watch out for slippery spots later today; especially, during bursts of heavier snow. On the backside of the departing strong low pressure, another very cold and windy (gusts to 40 mph) day is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region with well below-normal temperatures on Friday and even lower wind chill values.
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Arctic air covers much of the nation today with a particularly tight grip on the central states where numerous daily low temperature records have been set all the way from the Dakotas to the Rio Grande Valley region of southern Texas. The average temperature across the continental US earlier today was 15.4°F which is well below normal for this time of year and only the state of Florida could boast about warm weather conditions.
In addition to the widespread cold, accumulating snow fell yesterday across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and significant snow today will spread from the Tennessee Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic region. The DC metro area will be on the northern edge of today’s “southern stream” system and can receive a coating to an inch or so; especially, across the southern suburbs. On Thursday, a “northern stream” wave in the upper atmosphere will pass right over the Mid-Atlantic region and likely result in some snow or snow shower activity in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The week ends with yet another very cold and windy day on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region with well below normal temperatures and even lower wind chill values.
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Low pressure is organizing over the northern Gulf coast this morning and it will then head in an east-northeast direction reaching the waters off the Carolina coastline by early tomorrow morning. From there, the low pressure system will continue on an east-northeast track and undergo rapid intensification while out over the open waters of the western Atlantic. At the same time low pressure is intensifying rapidly off the coast on Thursday, a vigorous wave of energy in the northern jet stream will pass right overhead of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will enhance upward motion and produce quite unstable conditions. As a result, there is likely to be some snow or snow shower activity in the Philly metro region on Thursday and small accumulations of a coating to an inch or so are possible. On the heels of the low pressure, another windy and very cold day is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday, but temperatures should modify by the latter part of the weekend and the early part of next week.
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Arctic chill dominates the scene today across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and will continue to do so during the next few days. Indeed, there were numerous daily low temperature records set this morning with a focus on the north-central states (e.g., Glasgow, MT; Bismarck, ND; Duluth, MN) where wind chills of 50 degrees below zero have been commonplace. In addition to the cold, the wintry pattern will result in a snowstorm during the next couple of days that will first hit the Middle Mississippi Valley region (e.g., northern Arkansas/southern Missouri) and then extend to the southern Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., southeastern VA, Delmarva Peninsula). There can even be some snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later tomorrow into Thursday as low pressure intensifies off the coast and a northern stream upper-level low passes overhead creating an unstable environment...small accumulations are possible. Looking ahead, though temperatures will relax later this weekend into early next week, there are signs that additional Arctic cold air outbreaks will impact the central and eastern states as we close out the month of February and begin March.
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Arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather today resulting in well below-normal temperatures and stiff winds will produce even lower wind chill values. On Wednesday, low pressure will begin to organize near the northern Gulf coast and then it will head east-northeast reaching the waters off the Carolina coastline by early Thursday morning. From there, the low pressure system will likely continue on an east-northeast track taking its heaviest precipitation along with it to the south and east of the immediate I-95 corridor. While the heaviest and steadiest snow appears headed to the zone from southeastern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula, there can still be some snow or snow shower activity in the local area on Thursday as a northern stream upper-level low passes overhead…small accumulations of a coating to an inch or so are possible.
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In the wake of a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday, winds strengthened dramatically and will remain powerful today gusting past 50 mph at times (no doubt it is trash day). Cold air has poured into the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures will remain well below-normal during the next few days. In fact, much of the nation will feature very cold conditions for the week with Arctic high pressure in control.
By early Wednesday, low pressure will organize near the northern Gulf coast and then head east-northeast reaching the waters off the Carolina coastline by early Thursday. From there, the low pressure system will intensify rapidly as it likely continues on an east-northeast track and its heaviest precipitation should stay to the south and east of the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. While there still can be some snow around here from later Wednesday into Thursday, the chance has greatly diminished with this likely east-northeast track of the low pressure system rather than the other possibility of it riding up along the eastern seaboard.
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There is a snow threat for later this week in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor; however, of more immediate concern, is the threat for some serious weather during the next 36 hours or so. A strong cold front will barrel through the region later today and there will be cold air that pours into the Mid-Atlantic region on powerful northwest winds on its heels. Ahead of the front, the rain can be torrential and there can be scattered strong thunderstorm activity as well. On the back side of the front, indications are that powerful NW winds can gust into the 50-60 mph range from later today through much of the day on Monday raising the possibility of numerous power outages at the same time temperatures take a plunge…not a good combination. Later in the week, low pressure will form over the northern Gulf coast and then head east-northeast towards the Carolina coastline. If it continues on an east-northeast track then the chance of significant snowfall in the immediate I-95 corridor would be diminished. However, it it were to take a turn up along the east coast then snowfall in DC, Philly, and NYC could be more substantial from later Wednesday into Thursday.
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A major storm system that pounded the western US will cross the country and impact the northeastern states this weekend. There will be plenty of rainfall and strong winds during this weekend event in the Mid-Atlantic region, but snow and ice are likely at the onset with some accumulations possible on Saturday; especially, north of the PA/MD border. Once this system passes, cold air will pour into the northeastern states on powerful and potentially damaging NW winds and next week looks quite cold across much of the central and eastern US. Low pressure is likely to gather strength in the southern states by the middle of next week aided by an influx of Gulf moisture and it looks like it may become an accumulating snow threat by later Wednesday or Thursday.
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