A slow-moving cold front will inch its way towards the coast during the next 24 hours or so bringing an end to the dry spell in the Mid-Atlantic region. There will be occasional showers today and then more beneficial rain is possible tonight and Friday as low pressure forms along the stalling-out frontal boundary zone. In fact, there can be a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall late tonight and early Friday in areas just to the south and east of the I-95 corridor including, for example, northern Delaware and southern New Jersey. The weather for the weekend should turn out to be pretty decent although somewhat unsettled at times with breezy conditions and a shower or two cannot be completely ruled out.
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An unusually early polar vortex disruption is now underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and it could have winter-like implications on the weather across portions of the continental US later this month and during the month of December. In a typical strong El Nino winter season, mild Pacific Ocean air can overwhelm the nation, but this rare early season polar vortex disruption throws a monkey wrench into the whole concept of a “normal” El Nino winter season. An analysis of upper-level data records going as far back as the 1950’s show just how rare this polar vortex disruption is with the closest analog coming in late November of 1968...some three weeks later than the current rare early season event. One final note, most computer forecast models are not currently showing much in the way of cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern during the second half of this month; however, I would expect them to trend colder soon as they start “picking up” on this rare early season polar vortex disruption.
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After another warm, dry and sunny day in the Mid-Atlantic region, showers will likely push into the area on Thursday and can continue on an off and on basis into the day on Friday. A slow-moving cold front will close in on the eastern seaboard during the next couple of days bringing showers to the region and then low pressure will form along this stalling-out frontal boundary zone. This low pressure system will push to the northeast on Friday and could produce a narrow band of heavier rainfall likely focused just to the south and east of Route I-95 in places like the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey. The weekend may turn out to be pretty decent following the departure of the front with cool temperatures for the early part of next week.
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The next couple of days will remain dry, but rain is likely here from Thursday into Friday as strong low pressure pushes to our north and west. Our weather has been virtually rain-free since around the middle of October, but the dry spell comes to an end later this week and an another low pressure system can rotate into the area later this weekend or early next week with additional rainfall.
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The first half of the week will see a continuation of our recent dry weather pattern along with mild conditions with highs in the middle 60’s today and near 70 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. The dry spell will come to an end, however, later in the week as one low pressure system rides up to our north and west into the Great Lakes and a second system forms in the southeastern states and heads in this direction. The combination of these two systems should end the dry spell in the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday into Friday…a dry spell which began all the way back in mid-October.
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The work week will end on a mild note with afternoon high temperatures climbing to near 70 degrees in most spots to go along with copious amounts of sunshine. A cold front will pass through the area tonight and knock off several degrees from the temperature department for the weekend with highs generally confined to the lower 60’s on each day. It stays dry and mild early next week as weak low pressure falls apart upon its arrival in the Mid-Atlantic region. There will likely be a stronger system to deal with later next week which may bring a decent rainfall to the eastern states and tropical moisture over the western Atlantic may play a supporting role.
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On many occasions, it seems as if the overall weather pattern changes with the flip of the calendar from one month to another and, in this case, big changes may be coming to the southern and eastern US during the first week of November. It has been very dry during the past couple of weeks across many southern and eastern states with virtually no rain in many locations. A strong system will cross the nation next week and it may team with some tropical moisture over the western Atlantic to produce a significant rain event in the eastern US late next week and there can be severe weather to precede across much of the Deep South and Mississippi Valley.
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High pressure will continue to control the weather around here for the next couple of days even as it pushes off the eastern seaboard. A weak cold front will come through on Friday night and it’ll knock several degrees off the temperatures with Friday’s highs likely in the lower 70’s and Saturday’s in the low-to-mid 60’s. A weak low pressure weak system is likely to fall apart by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic region early next week, but a stronger system looks possible later next week and a decent rain event is actually on the table.
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High pressure continues to dominate the scene in the Mid-Atlantic region and the next few days should feature chilly nights, comfortable afternoons, and rain-free conditions. In fact, it looks like we’ll end up with no rainfall at all in the I-95 corridor right through the last day of the month on Saturday. The chance for rain, however, will be on the increase early next week and there can be a second opportunity later next week.
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High pressure continues to dominate the scene in the Mid-Atlantic region and the next several days should feature chilly nights, comfortable afternoons, and rain-free conditions. In fact, it looks like we’ll end up with no rainfall at all in the I-95 corridor during the last two weeks of the month with high pressure ridging in control for a sustained period of time.
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