Artificial intelligence (AI) is a collection of technologies that allow computers to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, and it is increasingly impacting the world of weather forecasting. The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) has made strides with its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) as it has recently become fully operational and is now run side-by-side with its traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). According to the ECMWF, the AIFS has outperformed the physics-based model for many measures including, for example, tropical cyclone tracks. In addition to the ECMWF AIFS, there are at least four other known “A.I. trained” weather models including NOAA/Google GraphCast, Microsoft’s Aurora, NVIDIA’s FourCast, and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather.
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March is known to feature some crazy and surprising weather and the 1958 blizzard that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic region between March 18th and 23rd was indeed rather unexpected. In general, forecasts on the morning of March 18th had no mention of snow. This was in an era before computer forecast models were being utilized by weather forecasters on a daily basis and it was even before satellite imagery existed which could aid in the forecast. By afternoon on that particular day, the light rain had changed into huge, wet snowflakes and - for the next few days - history was being made.
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The winter of 1992-1993 was not bad at all in the Mid-Atlantic region in terms of cold and snow, but one storm at the end of the season will put that particular winter in the history books forever. One of the most intense storms ever observed in the eastern US took place from March 12-14, 1993 and it will be forever known as the “Storm of the Century”. This intense storm generated tremendous snowfall totals from Alabama through Maine, high winds all along the east coast, extreme coastal flooding along the Florida west coast and incredibly low barometric pressures across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. The aftermath of the “Storm of the Century” was unseasonably cold and broke records in many spots for the middle of March. To this day, the storm also known as the “Superstorm of 1993” ranks among the deadliest and most costly weather events in US history.
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Running for his third presidential term, Franklin Roosevelt made a 1940 campaign promise to allow for the training of African American military pilots. In cooperation with the Tuskegee Institute in Alabama which was founded by Booker T. Washington in 1881, the Army created a program in 1941 to induct and train what would eventually amount to more than 14,000 airmen, of whom about 1,000 would become pilots; the others became navigators, bombardiers, radio operators, administrators, support personnel - and some became weathermen.
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It was a little past 1 AM on February 3rd, 1959 when American musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and J.P. “The Big Bopper” Richardson were killed in a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa along with pilot Roger Peterson. Weather conditions were certainly contributing factors in the plane crash as there was poor visibility on that cold night with snow blowing across the runway. Hours before, Holly and his tour mates were on the eleventh night of their “Winter Dance Party” tour through the snow-covered Midwest. It was a Monday and a school night, but 1,100 teenagers crammed into the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa for two sold out shows with the second one ending around midnight. The event later became known as “The Day the Music Died” after singer-songwriter Don McLean referred to it as such in his 1971 song “American Pie” which paid homage to the tragedy of February 3rd, 1959.
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Today marks the 39th anniversary of the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster which occurred on January 28, 1986, when the NASA Space Shuttle orbiter Challenger (mission STS-51-L) broke apart 73 seconds into its flight leading to the deaths of its seven crew members. STS-51-L was the 25th American Space Shuttle Program flight since the program began in 1981. It was also the first mission to have a civilian on board, American teacher Christa McAuliffe. The spacecraft disintegrated over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Florida at 11:39 EST (16:39 UTC). According to the Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, weather conditions were likely one of the factors that contributed to the incident. Tests conducted during the subsequent investigation showed that O-rings were much less resilient at lower temperatures, but the extreme cold at the Kennedy Space Center was not the only weather factor involved with this tragedy. Wind shear aloft may have been a contributing factor as well with two different airstreams in the vicinity of the launch site of the Space Shuttle Challenger.
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Bitter cold Arctic air persists across much of the nation with numerous daily low temperature records set across the southern and eastern states. In fact, a few all-time low temperature records were set this morning across southern Louisiana where clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, deep snowpack allowed temperatures to plunge to single digit levels across the region. A rare major winter storm has brought significant accumulating snow across the southern US from Texas-to-Florida-to-the Carolinas and, in some cases, this matched or surpassed the great winter storm of February 1895. The precipitation field associated with this southern storm will push off the southeast coast today, but the bitter cold will persist for a bit longer.
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A rare weather event has begun across the Gulf coast that will result in accumulating snow and ice in unusual places such as Houston (TX), New Orleans (LA), Tallahassee (FL), and Myrtle Beach (SC). NOAA has issued “Winter Storm Warnings” all the way from Texas to the Carolinas and - in an unprecedented fashion - even “Blizzard Warnings” have been issued from far eastern Texas to southern Louisiana. In this entire stretch of the southern US, there can be at least a few inches of snow by early Wednesday and an ice glaze may be included in the mix as well in many areas. By this evening, the accumulating snow can make it’s way as far north and east as southeastern Virginia and there can even be a touch of snow along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Arctic air that has enveloped the nation from coast-to-coast is the main contributor to this very wintry and rare weather event for the southern US.
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The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer across the nation with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.
This cold weather pattern will come with as many as three threats of snow and ice during the next week to ten days. On Sunday, low pressure will form along the incoming Arctic frontal boundary zone and likely produce several inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US - and this includes in the big cities along the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston. Another storm is destined to form over the Gulf region by mid-week and its focus could be on the southern states with significant snow and ice a possibility from Texas to the Carolinas…the snow shield can potentially work its way into the Mid-Atlantic region. Yet another system can again develop way down in the southern states by the end of next week or during the subsequent weekend.
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The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer across the nation with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long, long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.
This cold weather pattern will come with as many as three threats of snow and ice during the next week to ten days. On Sunday, low pressure will form along the incoming Arctic frontal boundary zone and likely produce several inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US - and this includes in the big cities along the I-95 corridor. Another storm is destined to form over the Gulf region by mid-week and its focus could be on the southern states with significant snow and ice a possibility down there. Yet another system can again develop way down in the southern states by the end of the next week or during the subsequent weekend.
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