NASA’s satellite-based MERRA-2 climate model is forecasting temperatures to drop to their lowest levels since before 1978 in the polar stratosphere and this might just result in a major outbreak of rarely seen colorful polar stratospheric clouds. Normally, the stratosphere has no clouds at all; however, when the temperature drops to around -85 C (188 K) or below, water molecules can coalesce into ice crystals and form polar stratospheric clouds – even in the very dry part of the upper atmosphere.
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Last week, it was the northern lights and now - for another astronomical treat - a comet should be visible to the naked eye during the next week to ten days or so in the western sky after sunset. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS has now exited the sun’s glare having come closest to the sun in late September. It made its closest approach to Earth this past Saturday, October 11th, passing about 44 million miles away. It is now rising a little bit higher each night in the western sky and remaining visible for a little bit longer period; however, it is also going to lose some its brightness with each passing day.
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Here we go again…in what has been quite an active phase of solar cycle 25, yet another coronal mass ejection (CME) may result in northern lights to be visible as far south as the mid-latitudes both tonight and again tomorrow night. A sunspot region officially known as AR3848 was the origin of this latest coronal mass ejection that took place early on Wednesday. A severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is already underway in that protons are “raining down on Earth” according to spaceweather.com as the energetic particles are being accelerated toward the Earth by the incoming CME. In addition, solar winds have jumped to 750 kilometers per second and a crack is opening in the Earth’s magnetic field. The best viewing time period is probably between about 8pm and 2am (assuming skies are clear throughout those hours) and in the darkest area available to you with a good view of the north.
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Solar Cycle 25 is nearing its solar maximum and - as is typical during this phase of a solar cycle - there has been a lot of solar activity in recent weeks with numerous sunspots. The strongest solar flare yet during this current solar cycle took place earlier today with an explosion originating from sunspot region known officially as “AR3842”. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded today’s blast as an X9.0 (where X-class denotes the most intense flares) and it may result in widespread auroras this weekend as the “coronal mass ejection” strikes Earth.
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Galileo turned his primitive telescope towards Jupiter in the early 1600’s and saw tiny specks of light with no discernable features. What a difference 400+ years can make as today’s backyard telescopes can resolve Europa’s disk surprisingly well. Europa is now considered one of the most complex and fascinating worlds in the solar system. Cracks, ridges, and chaotic terrain on the moon's icy crust may offer access to one of the largest oceans in the solar system--and a possible abode for aquatic life. NASA's Europa Clipper spacecraft, due to launch one week from now on October 10th, will conduct a detailed reconnaissance of the moon's surface to help plan future missions including a lander and perhaps even a submarine. Europa Clipper’s main science goal is to determine whether there are places below the surface of Europa that could support life.
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On September 1st, 1859, a ferocious solar storm took place that impacted much of the planet. This ferocious solar storm is now known as the “Carrington Event”, named after the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, who witnessed the largest solar flare from his own private observatory which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth. Recent studies of solar storms have warned that these type of “Carrington Events” may not be quite as rare as once thought (e.g., Hayakawa et al). Many previous studies leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. A super storm of the same magnitude as the “Carrington Event” in today’s world would very likely have a much more damaging impact than it did in the 19th century potentially causing widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.
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On September 1st, 1859, a ferocious solar storm took place that impacted much of the planet. This ferocious solar storm is now known as the “Carrington Event”, named after the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, who witnessed the largest solar flare from his own private observatory which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth. Recent studies of solar storms have warned that these type of “Carrington Events” may not be quite as rare as once thought (e.g., Hayakawa et al). Many previous studies leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. A super storm of the same magnitude as the “Carrington Event” in today’s world would very likely have a much more damaging impact than it did in the 19th century potentially causing widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.
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Solar cycle 25 began in late 2019 and is expected to continue through much of this decade with its maximum phase potentially being reached during the first half of 2025. This month of August has been very active in terms of the number of sunspots and it is quite likely to turn out to be the most active since solar cycle 23 peaked in September of 2001. Solar cycle 25 has exceeded most expectations in terms of the number of sunspots and is on pace to be of similar strength as solar cycle 23. The previous solar cycle, #24, was the weakest in more than a hundred years since solar cycle 14 peaked in January 1907.
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The annual Perseid meteor shower began in mid-July and will continue until late August, and the peak viewing time will be during the pre-dawn hours of Monday, August 12th. This year’s peak viewing will come at a time when the moon is 50% illuminated (first quarter phase) which is halfway between the new moon and full moon. The moon will set around midnight suggesting that the best viewing conditions will indeed be in the pre-dawn hours when the sky should be at its darkest. Of course, success for viewing will largely depend on the overall lighting in given viewing area and on overall sky conditions and the weather is looking quite favorable in the Mid-Atlantic region. The Perseid meteor shower comes every August as the Earth passes through a cloud of dust that comes from Comet Swift-Tuttle as it approaches the sun.
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Interesting…seeing a pattern here with powerful solar storms that have taken place during the month of May. Earlier this month, one of the strongest solar storms in many years occurred generating the northern lights in such unusual southern latitudes as Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. Additionally, I posted an article last week about what was arguably the most powerful solar storm of the 20th Century which also took place during the month of May (13th-15th) during the year 1921. Today’s posting is about another powerful solar storm that took place during the month of May - this time in the year 1967 - and it almost caused a nuclear confrontation between the two superpowers at the time…the US and Soviet Union.
It was during the height of the Cold War and a powerful solar storm could have led to a disastrous military conflict between the US and Soviet Union if not for the early efforts of the US Air Force to monitor solar activity. On May 23rd, 1967, a solar storm took place that was so powerful, it jammed radar and radio communications in polar regions and the US Air Force actually began to prepare aircraft for war thinking the nation’s surveillance radars were being jammed by the Soviet Union. Fortunately, space weather forecasters in the military suspected there might be another cause and they relayed information about the possibility that a solar storm could have been the reason for the disrupted radar and radio communications. As it turned out, this information was enough to keep the planes on the ground and the US avoided a potential nuclear weapon exchange with the Soviet Union.
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