Hurricane Matthew is now moving slowly through the Bahama Island chain and will head towards the east-central coast of Florida over the next couple of days. Its current movement of NNW will gradually shift to NW later today as strong high pressure ridging in the central Atlantic expands westward. After that time, global models turn the hurricane northward, then northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts eastward and a mid-to-upper-level trough approaches the eastern United States. This approaching trof will prevent Matthew from turning up the east coast and, in fact, will likely force it to loop back around to the southeast once it reaches its likely farthest northward extent off the North Carolina coastline. The end result is that Matthew will have little, if any, impact around here this weekend, but showers could still fall from a strong frontal system.
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All eyes continue to focus on Hurricane Matthew which is slowly working its way northward through the northern Caribbean Sea and is right on the southwestern tip of Haiti. After a devastating blow to Haiti and eastern Cuba over the next 12 to 24 hours, Matthew is likely to churn slowly northwest through the Bahamas and come dangerously close to the Southeast US coastline. In fact, it looks like it may just about reach the coastline on Florida's east side and then ride parallel to the coastline right to the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough of low pressure is sliding eastward across the northern US and its ultimate interaction with Matthew will dictate what impact the storm will have on the I-95 corridor region this weekend. There is still a chance the storm turns northeast away from the Mid-Atlantic coastline and has little to no effect here or it can interact with a frontal system and push some significant rain and wind to this area. Even an offshore track for Matthew this weekend could produce rain and wind in this area.
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A cool front will head through the area today and then large high pressure will build into the Northeast US from southeastern Canada. This high pressure system should control the weather around here in the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Elsewhere, Matthew continues to churn very slowly in the central Caribbean as a major (category 4) hurricane. It will have a major impact over the next few days across Jamaica, eastern Cuba and - worst of all – the country of Haiti. The most damaging side of the hurricane in terms of wind, rain and storm surge it its right side and this is what will slam into Haiti during the next few days. Beyond that, the Bahama Island chain will suffer Matthew’s wrath later in the week as it slowly grinds its way towards the Southeast US coastline where it will likely meander for a few more days before hopefully turning to the northeast and away from the US. This system still a long way to go on the weather scene and nothing is set in stone beyond five days or so.
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More than an inch and a half of rain fell in much of the region last night and this rain event will be slow to wind down. A very slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce an air flow off of the Atlantic Ocean and this moisture will contribute to more shower activity for the DC metro region. In fact, the weekend will start off damp with the likelihood of more showers throughout the area. Genuine clearing in the Mid-Atlantic may have to wait until the early part of next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Matthew continues to move westward in the Caribbean Sea region and it could intensify into a major hurricane by early in the weekend. At some point late in the weekend or early next week, Matthew is likely to make a sharp right turn and heads towards the islands of Cuba or Hispaniola. After that, Matthew is likely to slowly move into the Bahama Islands region and it is unclear if it’ll then take a turn up the US east coast or stay out over the open waters of the western Atlantic - the "out-to-sea" scenario is the most likely.
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**A major rain event is underway for the entire DC metro region and localized flash flooding is a serious concern**. A very slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low will help to produce a persistent flow of air off the Atlantic Ocean and this moisture will contribute to copious amounts of rainfall for much of the Mid-Atlantic region. The greatest rainfall amounts are likely to take place in the general region from central Virginia to central Pennsylvania which includes the entire DC metro region and especially in higher elevation locations where upsloping from persistent east-to-northeast winds will enhance rainfall amounts. Meanwhile, “Matthew” continues to churn as a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea region and it could intensify into a major hurricane by later in the weekend. At some point, Matthew will take a sharp turn to the north and all eyes in the eastern states should continue to monitor its progress.
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The upcoming heavy rain event has the potential to produce some mind-boggling precipitation totals on the order of more than five inches in some spots and flooding issues in parts of the DC metro region. A slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low will drop south from the Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours and then stall out over the Tennessee Valley. The strength and slow movement of this system will allow for copious amounts of moisture to get pulled in from off the Atlantic Ocean and this setup could lead to several inches of rain by the weekend. The rain begins today, but the heaviest amounts are likely from late tonight into late Thursday night.
Elsewhere, a tropical system continues to head westward towards the Caribbean Sea and it could reach hurricane status there this weekend – perhaps even major. After that, there are signs that this tropical system could turn north or northwest towards the US east coast – stay tuned.
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An extended and significant rain event is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week. A cold front is slowly working its way through the region this morning, but it will stall out just off the east coast and this will set the stage for inclement weather over the next few days. Strong high pressure to the north will combine with a slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low to create wet conditions for an extended period of time in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, rain will threaten from tomorrow night right into the weekend as multiple low pressure areas ride along the stalled out frontal boundary zone.
Elsewhere, a tropical system headed westward towards the Caribbean Sea is likely to intensify into tropical storm status within the next couple of days. This system could then become a major hurricane over the weekend while in the Caribbean Sea region and all eyes in the Gulf of Mexico and eastern US will have to monitor this system closely over the next week to ten days (to be named Matthew).
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It looks like it’ll be a cool week in the Mid-Atlantic region with multiple chances for rain. High pressure that has been the anchor of our recent cool air mass will shift offshore today and a cold front will head our way from the Midwest. This front will generate showers in the region from late tonight into early Tuesday and then it’ll set the stage for more rainfall on Thursday and Friday as it stalls out just off the coastline. Multiple low pressure areas will ride along this stalled out frontal boundary zone later in the week and likely produce rainfall here on both Thursday and Friday.
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The coolest air mass of the season so far will be heading into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions this weekend and it’ll stay on the cool side right into the middle of next week. The normal high temperature in DC this time of year is around 78 degrees and we’ll spend a couple of days below that after a strong cold frontal passage early tomorrow. Sprawling and strong high pressure will anchor this cool air mass and dominate the weather scene in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic from this weekend into the middle part of next week.
Elsewhere, tropical depression Karl could impact Bermuda this weekend, but it looks like it’ll stay safely away from the US coastline as should Tropical Storm Lisa which is currently farther out in the open Atlantic. Amazingly, for the second year in a row, the Atlantic Ocean has had zero hurricanes in the period of September 3-22 which encompasses the climatological peak time of the Atlantic Basin tropical season and this kind of September quiet period is unprecedented in the record keeping era since 1851.
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High pressure will shift offshore by tomorrow and this positioning will keep us on the warm side for the next couple of days producing low-level southwesterly winds in the atmosphere on its backside. A strong cold front will slide through the area early in the weekend and its passage will usher in the coolest air of the season so far. Sprawling and strong high pressure will anchor this cool air mass and dominate the weather scene in the Northeast US from this weekend into the middle part of next week. Elsewhere, tropical depression Karl could impact Bermuda this weekend, but it looks like it’ll stay safely away from the US coastline as should Tropical Storm Lisa which is currently farther east than Karl and it should stay out in the open Atlantic.
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