Tropical Storm Jose will move farther away from the coast today in a northeastward direction and it should continue to slowly weaken. It will, however, tend to reach a block in the upper atmosphere and be forced to take a loop in a few days back towards the Northeast US coastline. Eventually, the remains of Jose will interact with Hurricane Maria and it'll play an important role in Maria's ultimate track. Hurricane Maria is now slamming Puerto Rico as a major (category 4) storm with max sustained winds at 140 mph. Maria will weaken after crossing Puerto Rico and will then take a turn to the north moving just east of the Bahama Island chain. Around here, high pressure will control our weather for the next several days and we'll enjoy a long stretch of warm and dry weather.
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Hurricane Jose (category 1) will impact the coastline today and tonight from New Jersey to southern New England with bands of rain, rough surf, gusty winds and possible coastal flooding at time of high tide. Jose will stay off the coast and push farther away from the Northeast US coastline over the next couple of days, but ultimately, may make a move back towards the east coast. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria has strengthened to category 5 "major" status and is headed right towards the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. It is likely to make landfall in Puerto Rico on Wednesday - perhaps as a category 4 "major" hurricane. After that, Maria will likely turn northward and slide to the east of the Bahama Island chain. It is possible that the remnants of Jose actually provide an atmospheric "escape route" for Maria so that it never reaches the US coastline - let's hope so.
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The tropics continue to remain very active with three separate systems and the next couple of days will feature a close call between Hurricane Jose and the Northeast US coastline. Tropical storm conditions from Hurricane Jose are possible from later tomorrow into early Wednesday along coastal sections from the Delmarva Peninsula to New England. These coastal areas are likely to experience coastal flooding at high tide, rough surf, and some soaking wind-driven rain with the closest approach of Jose. Looking ahead, Jose is likely to turn to the northeast later this week and seemingly "out-to-sea", but it could actually take a loop back around and head westward again in several days towards the Mid-Atlantic likely in a weakened state.
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There will be one more unsettled day in the Mid-Atlantic region - partly as a result of the remains of Hurricane Irma - but then the weather this weekend should improve as weak high pressure pushes into the area. Jose, now a tropical storm, continues to drift over the Atlantic Ocean. It can very well re-strengthen to hurricane status at some point over the next few days as it likely progresses closer to the US east coast and it’ll continue to be closely monitored.
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The remains of Irma will contribute to another couple of unsettled days around here, but the weekend is looking quite decent for mid-September. Weak high pressure will build into the region this weekend and it’ll be quite warm on both Saturday and Sunday with some sunshine on each day. Hurricane Jose continues to churn slowly out over the Atlantic Ocean and it’ll be monitored over the next several days as it may eventually head towards the US east coast. In addition, there are other tropical systems behind Jose in the eastern Atlantic which will also have to be closely monitored in coming days.
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The remains of Irma will bring us the chance for showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days, but it does not look like a heavy rain event. Weak high pressure will build into the region this weekend and it’ll be quite warm on both Saturday and Sunday. Hurricane Jose continues to churn well out over the Atlantic and it’ll be monitored over the next several days, but but is unlikely to ever impact the region.
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The remains of Irma will bring us the chance for showers by later today and that threat will continue into the late week as the system stalls out as it gradually dissipates. It’ll turn slightly warmer as the week progresses and the overall cool pattern of the first ten days of September will evolve into a warmer pattern relative-to-normal as we head towards the second half of the month. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose will take an erratic pattern over the few days over the western Atlantic and then it should take a more consistent path to the northwest and towards the US east coast. We may to deal with Jose as a threat in the Mid-Atlantic region somewhere by the middle or latter part of next week.
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Our nice weather pattern will continue as we begin the new work week with high pressure still in control in the Mid-Atlantic region. The much weakened remains of Irma will lift northwestward over the next 24 hours into the Tennessee Valley and they will likely result in shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region from tomorrow night into Thursday.
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Irma continues to track west-northwest as a major hurricane - now at category 4 status - and is likely to maintain much of its strength over the next couple of days as it moves over very warm waters. Irma should move to a position quite close to the southeastern coast of Florida by early Sunday and then it is likely to turn northward as deep upper-level troughing digs in over the Northeast US. This likely path will result in virtually the entire state of Florida experiencing hurricane conditions later this weekend and into early Monday as the hurricane crosses from south-to-north roughly over the center of Florida. At landfall, Irma is likely to have category 4 status, but category 5 status is not out of the realm of possibility. By the time Irma reaches the central and northern parts of Florida, it is likely to have weakened some to perhaps category 2 level. If there is any impact from the much-weakened remains of Irma in the Mid-Atlantic region, it would likely be in the Tuesday/Wednesday time period.
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High pressure will build into the region later today and we’ll have another stretch of nice weather in the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, Hurricane Irma continues on a WNW track as a category 5 “major” hurricane. The hurricane is being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north and this motion should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that, an upper-level trough will dig into the eastern US and allow Irma to turn northward. There is still some uncertainty about the timing of this turn northward, but major impact is very likely across southern Florida over the weekend as it makes its turn. There may be some impact around here around Tuesday of next week from a much weakened tropical system.
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