The remains of Hurricane Nate are pushing through the Northeast US today and the western Atlantic ridge of high pressure will back to the west and into the Southeast US. The general trend this week will be for unsettled conditions and a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as a frontal system stalls in the general vicinity.
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Tropical Storm Nate is headed north-northwest today towards the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and then will move into the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Nate could very well intensify into hurricane status by late Saturday over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico and then continue northward right towards the Louisiana/Mississippi border region by early Sunday. After that, Nate is likely to take a turn to the northeast and move through the Tennessee Valley on Monday and into the interior part of the Mid-Atlantic bringing some significant rain to the local area later Sunday into Monday.
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One tropical wave will shift westward today over the Florida Straits and the combination of this system and strong high pressure to the north will keep a tight pressure gradient in the area leading to a continuation of the strong easterly winds. As a result of these persistent winds, beach conditions will remain hazardous with rough surf and beach erosion. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nate - now over the Caribbean Sea - is likely to move north over the next few days and could turn into a hurricane by the time it reaches the central part of the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Odds currently favor the track of TS Nate to bring it towards the central Gulf states of Louisiana, Mississippi and/or Alabama by late in the weekend - somewhat west of earlier thoughts of the Florida Panhandle.
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Strong high pressure ridging continues to reside this morning over the Northeast US and southeastern part of Canada. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin tropical season has quieted down in recent days, but there is likely to be more activity that develops this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, signs point to the formation of a system this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and it could then ride northward from the Gulf region and much of the eastern US.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season is quiet right now, but there is likely to be more activity next week that forms over the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, our weather pattern will remain generally warm and rain-free as high pressure dominates the scene over the northeastern quadrant of the country.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season is still alive and we’ll have to monitor “home-grown” systems that form over the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea as opposed to “African-wave” type tropical waves that trek across the Atlantic and are more common during summer months. The weather map early this week is dominated by strong high pressure ridging across the Northeast US and a wave of low pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
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An upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico will help to spin off low pressure along the east coast of Florida over the next couple of days and this low pressure area may actually trend westward across northern Florida later this weekend as strong high pressure builds across the northeast part of the country. This same high pressure will edge into the Tennessee Valley over the weekend and produce a stretch of mostly dry weather with a slight warming trend going into next week.
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The passage of a cold front is ushering in cooler air for much of the eastern US and temperatures will actually become quite comfortable over the next few days in the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures this weekend, for example, should generally hold in the 70’s around here…quite a contrast with the past few very warm days.
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We’ll have another very warm day across northern Alabama, but there is relief on the way. A strong cold front will usher in cooler air by the end of the week and the weekend is likely to feature pleasant conditions with highs generally in the 70’s on each day.
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Hurricane Maria continues to move slowly in a general northward direction over the western Atlantic and it will impact the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but then an advancing cold front will push it out-to-sea once and for all. Around here, our weather will stay very warm and dry over the next few days, but the cold front will usher in much cooler air by the weekend.
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