Southwesterly flow will dominate the scene around here over the next few days as high pressure ridging extends westward into the area from the western Atlantic Ocean. As a result, quite warm and humid air will push into the region and this will raise the chance for daily showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days. Slightly drier air later this week in the upper atmosphere may reduce chances for rain somewhat across the Tennessee Valley and this may also result in slightly higher temperatures closer to the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs.
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Slightly cooler and drier air should push into the region today as we end the work week and our chances for rain will diminish. Temperatures should be rather pleasant for this time of year with highs this afternoon not far from the 80 degree mark. As high pressure builds across the Southeast US this weekend, moisture will make a return to the Tennessee Valley and shower/thunderstorm chances will be on the increase as we reach the early part of next week.
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A frontal system will slowly push through the area today and continue our chances around here for showers and thunderstorms. Any rain that falls today can result in localized flooding issues given the well saturated grounds following recent rainfall. This same frontal system will push back to the north on Friday and this will extend our chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley.
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A frontal system will slide towards the region today and bring with it a good chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. Any rain that falls today can be on the heavy side given the high humidity levels that currently exist in the area. The front will be rather slow to move through the region; consequently, there may be more shower and thunderstorms to deal with on Thursday as well. In fact, flash flooding may become an increasing concern on Thursday given the recent rainfall in this part of the Tennessee Valley.
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A wet pattern continues here today with thunderstorms becoming more numerous in coverage by the afternoon and showers are likely tonight as well. The threat for showers and storms will continue on Wednesday, but then drier air is likely to arrive by Thursday following a frontal passage. The unsettled pattern returns for the late week and weekend.
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High pressure continues to dominate at all levels of the atmosphere and the result will be a continuation of hot weather in the Tennessee Valley. A weak disturbance will rotate around the high and it could generate some shower and thunderstorm activity from Friday into Saturday. By later Saturday, a frontal system will be draped near the region and this is likely to lead to more clouds, less heat, and an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms later this weekend and early next week.
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One last hurrah today from what remains of Hurricane Florence as it merges with a frontal system and produces showers and thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor. After the remnants of Florence exit off of the Northeast US coastline late tonight, high pressure will take over in much of the eastern US for the Wednesday-to-Friday time period. We’ll experience generally dry, sunny and hot conditions during much of the remainder of the week. The tropics have become generally quiet in the Atlantic Basin and should stay so for the next several days. In fact, as of late Monday, there were no tropical storms/hurricanes/cyclones anywhere around the world which is quite unusual in mid-September and it hasn’t been so since the end of July. There are signs, however, for a resumption of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin later this month and/or during the month of October.
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The remains of Florence have begun a looping pattern and are accelerating to the northeast today and should push off the Northeast US coastline by late tomorrow night. Once Florence exits the Northeast US, the tropical Atlantic will become relatively quiet for a brief time. There are signs, however, for more active tropical activity to resume later this month and perhaps for parts of October.
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Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it will crawl along the coastline over the next 24 hours. This slow movement will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than 20 inches of rainfall. Florence will push inland this weekend and cross over South Carolina in a weakened state and begin a looping process which will begin with an acceleration to the northwest and then to the northeast. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this possible break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and for part of October.
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Florence continues to move towards the Carolina coastline now as a cat 2 hurricane and it should get quite close by early tomorrow. As it approaches the coast, it will slow down dramatically as it becomes influenced by strong upper-level blocking high pressure to the north. From this location, Florence will likely take a turn to the southwest and then painfully crawl down the Carolina coastline leading to an extended period of heavy rain and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas as well as nearby inland locations. Over the weekend, Florence will then likely push inland over South Carolina and Georgia in a somewhat weakened state and then it’ll begin a looping process in the early part of next week. This loop will begin with a push to the northwest and then a turn to the north and ultimately, a push to the northeast before finally exiting the US around the middle of next week.
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