A cold front will approach the region later today and combine with some moisture leftover from an eastern Pacific tropical system (Sergio) to increase the chance for some shower activity. The front will shift south of here on Tuesday and it’ll become noticeably cooler and a weak disturbance will continue the chance for showers across the Tennessee Valley. High pressure and drier air pushes into the region for the mid and latter parts of the week. In the Atlantic Basin, there is now very little tropical activity and it looks quiet going forward.
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Tropical Storm Michael is pushing off the east coast and will accelerate out into the open Atlantic. In its wake, a much cooler and drier air mass has flooded the Tennessee Valley and the next couple of days will be below-normal for mid-October. For the first time this season, some spots will experience overnight lows in the 40’s as we begin the weekend.
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Hurricane Michael made landfall yesterday in the Florida Panhandle as a “major” category 4 system and today it will accelerate to the northeast as a tropical storm. Its tropical moisture field will interact with a strong cold frontal system advancing towards the east coast and the result will be some heavy rainfall today in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US, but we’ll begin a cooling and drying trend here this afternoon along with some strong wind gusts. In fact, it’ll turn much cooler this evening and overnight lows should bottom out in the middle 40’s by early tomorrow morning. The cool conditions that follow the passage of a cold front will stick around right into the upcoming weekend.
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Hurricane Michael should make landfall later today in the Florida Panhandle as a “major” hurricane as it continues to slowly intensify in an overall favorable environment and moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will become increasingly influenced by an approaching upper-level trough over the middle of the country and will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline. Heavy rain and strong winds with hurricane-force gusts will extend from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas which is already a rain-soaked region thanks to the stalled out Hurricane Florence of last month. Following the passage of Michael, quite cool and drier weather will follow in the Tennessee Valley for later Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
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Hurricane Michael continues to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (now a cat 2). There is a high probability that Michael will reach major hurricane status (i.e., cat 3 or higher) before a landfall on Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle - perhaps between Destin and Apalachicola. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline and heavy rain is likely in the rain-soaked region of the Carolinas where Florence stalled out last month.
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All eyes are now on the tropics now as soon-to-be Hurricane Michael is heading to the open Gulf of Mexico and it could very well reach "major" hurricane status before making landfall at mid-week. The overall upper-level pattern (i.e., very strong ridging centered over SE Canada/NE US) is one that opened the door for tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and indeed, this system had its origins last week in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and will now move northward over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Once Michael makes landfall, it is likely to turn from the north to the northeast and should ride up along the Southeast US coastline as it interacts with a frontal system. There is the high potential for heavy rainfall from Michael in places like North and South Carolina – where they certainly don’t need any – and even a chance it’ll impact the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week. It’ll turn colder for awhile behind the passage of this tropical system as some Canadian chill that has been bottled up to our north finally makes its way into the eastern US.
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Upper-level high pressure ridging continues to be situated over the eastern US resulting in very warm and generally dry conditions here in the Tennessee Valley. This ridge of high pressure will intensify over the next few days over the southeastern part of Canada and this opens the door for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or southwestern Atlantic to potentially reach the southeastern US. In fact, there is currently a tropical disturbance located in the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea and it is still a little too early to tell if it will spill out over the Gulf of Mexico and possibly have an impact in the Southeast US.
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Upper-level high pressure ridging will build strongly later this weekend across southeastern Canada and this always raises a red flag this time of year for the potential of tropical systems to “slide underneath” the ridge and head towards the SE US. As a result, we’ll keep a close eye on the Caribbean Sea, southwestern Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of weeks for the potential of east-to-west moving tropical activity.
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High pressure ridging at upper levels of the atmosphere will build strongly over the weekend and well into next week across the NE US and SE Canada and this always raises a red flag this time of year for potential tropical systems to “slide underneath”. As a result, a close eye will need to be kept on the Caribbean Sea, southwestern Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of weeks for the potential of east-to-west moving tropical activity.
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Southwesterly flow continues to dominate the scene around here as high pressure ridging extends westward into the area from the western Atlantic Ocean. As a result, quite warm and humid air has pushed into the region and this will continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley on this Tuesday. Slightly drier air later this week in the upper atmosphere may reduce chances for rain somewhat across the Tennessee Valley and this may also result in slightly higher temperatures closer to the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs.
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