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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: KSC
A weakened Irma will head northwest into the Tennessee Valley today and our weather will improve dramatically. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose will take an erratic path over the next several days and likely not become a threat to Florida.
Read MoreA weakened Irma will head into southwestern Georgia today and then turn northwestward towards the Tennessee Valley region. At 8am, Irma was moving NNW at 18 mph and classified as a tropical storm with max sustained winds at 70 mph and a central pressure of 970 mb. Due to strong high pressure ridging across the Great Lakes region, Irma’s remains will stall out in its advance to the north and gradually dissipate over the Tennessee Valley over the next few days.
Read MoreIrma slammed ashore in northern Cuba last night as a category 5 hurricane – the first such there since 1924. Irma weakened slightly in the overnight hours, but is likely to strengthen tonight and Sunday before making landfall possibly on the southwest side of Florida after moving over the Lower Keys - perhaps right over Key West. Exact landfall on the Florida peninsula is quite difficult to pinpoint at this time, but there is a chance it ends up somewhere between Naples and Port Charlotte as a category 4 or 5 hurricane.
At 8am, Irma featured 130 max sustained winds, movement to the WNW at 12 mph and a central pressure reading of 937 mb. During the next several hours, Irma may continue to weaken slightly or simply maintain its current strength as it continues to interact with the northern coast of Cuba, but once back out over the open waters of the Florida Straits, Irma is likely to undergo some intensification tonight into Sunday – perhaps even in a significant way. Virtually the entire state of Florida could experience hurricane conditions later this weekend, but the worst case scenario is now setting up for Lower Keys and western and central sections of the state with the latest expected path paralleling the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Once past Florida, Irma will eventually turn northwestward pushing through Georgia and towards the Tennessee Valley and weakening along the way.
Around here, winds of strong tropical storm to category 1 hurricane force are likely on Sunday and Sunday night; especially, in gusts. These winds can produce considerable damage here – even well east of Irma’s expected track closer to the western side of the state. Intense rainfall can be expected here as well with upwards of a foot of rain possible with frequent squall bands. A storm surge of around 3 feet can be expected on top of local tidal ranges.
Read MoreHurricane Irma is very likely to have a significant and potentially life-threatening impact on east-central Florida later this weekend with extreme winds as it likely tracks just to the west of here. Irma continues to track west-northwest this morning as a major hurricane - now a category 4 status - and is likely to maintain much of its strength over the next couple of days as it moves over very warm waters. Irma should move to a position quite close to the southeastern coast of Florida by early Sunday and then it is likely to turn north-to-northwest as deep upper-level troughing digs in over the Northeast US. Based on this track, virtually the entire state of Florida is likely to experience hurricane conditions. At landfall Irma is likely to be category 4 status, but 5 is not out of the realm of possibility. It is likely to weaken some - perhaps to category 2 status - by the time it moves over the central and northern parts of Florida late Sunday/early Monday. All efforts to protect life and property should now be underway!
Read MoreDangerous Hurricane Irma continues on a WNW track as a category 5 “major” hurricane. The hurricane is being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north and this motion should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that, an upper-level trough will dig into the eastern US and allow Irma to turn northward. There is still some uncertainty about the timing of this turn northward, but major impact is very likely across southern Florida over the weekend as it makes its turn. Irma is expected to move into the eastern Florida Straits on Saturday and then makes its closest approach to central Florida late Sunday or early Monday with increasing winds and rain.
Read MoreIrma continues to grind westward over the Atlantic as a major hurricane and it is looking increasingly likely that it will impact southern Florida in a significant way by later in the weekend and central Florida can expect some impact as well. Irma is likely to approach the Florida Straits by early in the weekend and then perhaps shift its westward track to more of a northward turn and this could bring it over the western side of the state on a path from south-to-north towards the interior Southeast US.
Read MoreIrma continues to churn westward over the Atlantic as a major hurricane and it is looking increasingly likely that it will impact southern Florida in a significant way by later in the weekend and central Florida can expect some impact as well. Irma is likely to approach the Florida Straits by early in the weekend and then perhaps shift to a more northward path which could bring it directly over the state of Florida on a path towards the interior Southeast US. As of the last report, Irma’s max sustained winds are near 175 mph which gives it a dangerous category 5 “major” hurricane status.
Read MoreThe chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase today as moisture returns to all levels of the atmosphere. This increased threat for rain will continue into the weekend as well. Elsewhere, the tropics continue to be quite active and Hurricane Irma will have to be monitored closely in coming days. All indications suggest further intensification of Irma and in a week to ten days, it very well could be nearing the Bahamas and the Southeast US. Stay tuned.
Read MoreThe Atlantic high pressure ridge is in control of our weather and it should stay dry today and rather hot for late August. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase over the next couple of days with the best chance in the interior. The tropics continue to be active and Irma will have to be monitored closely in coming days. All indications suggest further intensification of Irma and in a week to ten days, it very well could be closing in on the Bahamas or northern Caribbean Sea.
Read MoreThe Atlantic high pressure ridge is going to expand over the next few days into central Florida reducing overall moisture content and keeping us quite warm for late August. In fact, by the holiday weekend, high pressure will be in control at all levels of the atmosphere and it’ll remain very warm around here with high temperatures near 90 degrees on a daily basis.
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