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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: NYC
NYC Forecast: Very warm air will stick around early in the week, with a cold front bringing a chance of showers on the way into the weekend. Very hot on Tuesday, possibly record breaking highs for New York. Cooler air comes in overnight Friday, leading to seasonably cool, and likely dry, fall weekend
Read MoreForecast for NYC: While Matthew was impacting the Southeast US this weekend, a strong cold front pushed through the Mid-Atlantic region and ushered in a cool air mass to start the new week. Cool and dry weather should continue through much of the week thanks to large high pressure building into the Northeast US over the next few days.
Read MoreHurricane Matthew will impact greatly much of the Southeast US coastal region during the next couple of days from Florida to North Carolina, but it should stay away from the Mid-Atlantic region. Matthew is likely to turn sharply northeast once it reaches the South Carolina/North Carolina border region and an eventual looping track will likely prevent it from coming near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and ultimately, it could actually come back around and affect the Southeast US/Bahamas region for a second time. Meanwhile, here in the Mid-Atlantic, a strong cold front can generate some shower activity on Saturday before ushering in a cooler air mass for the latter part of the weekend and early part of next week.
Read MoreHurricane Matthew remains a serious threat to the Southeast US coastal region from Florida to North Carolina. It continues on a track towards the east-central section of Florida and it could make landfall there early tomorrow as a major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). If so, it would end an unprecedented streak in the US without a major hurricane strike that has lasted since October 2005 (Wilma). After its arrival in east-central Florida, Matthew is likely to move northward along the northeast Florida coastline and it should ride up along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines as it gradually turns to the northeast. By this time, a deep upper-level trough will have an increasing influence on Matthew and this will cause an eventual turn to the east and then southeast in a looping fashion over the western Atlantic. This sharp turn and loop will likely prevent Matthew from impacting the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend, but there can still be some shower activity around here as a strong cold front heads into the eastern US.
Read MoreHurricane Matthew is now moving slowly through the Bahama Island chain and will head towards the east-central coast of Florida over the next couple of days. Its current movement of NNW will gradually shift to NW later today as strong high pressure ridging in the central Atlantic expands westward. After that time, global models turn the hurricane northward, then northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts eastward and a mid-to-upper-level trough approaches the eastern United States. This approaching trof will prevent Matthew from turning up the east coast and, in fact, will likely force it to loop back around to the southeast once it reaches its likely farthest northward extent off the North Carolina coastline. The end result is that Matthew will have little, if any, impact around here this weekend, but showers could still fall from a strong frontal system.
Read MoreAll eyes continue to focus on Hurricane Matthew which is slowly working its way northward through the northern Caribbean Sea and is right on the southwestern tip of Haiti. After a devastating blow to Haiti and eastern Cuba over the next 12 to 24 hours, Matthew is likely to churn slowly northwest through the Bahamas and come dangerously close to the Southeast US coastline. In fact, it looks like it may just about reach the coastline on Florida's east side and then ride parallel to the coastline right to the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough of low pressure is sliding eastward across the northern US and its ultimate interaction with Matthew will dictate what impact the storm will have on the I-95 corridor region this weekend. There is still a chance the storm turns northeast away from the Mid-Atlantic coastline and has little to no effect here or it can interact with a frontal system and push some significant rain and wind to this area. Even an offshore track for Matthew this weekend could produce rain and wind in this area.
Read MoreA cool front will head through the area today and then large high pressure will build into the Northeast US from southeastern Canada. This high pressure system should control the weather around here in the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Elsewhere, Matthew continues to churn very slowly in the central Caribbean as a major (category 4) hurricane. It will have a major impact over the next few days across Jamaica, eastern Cuba and - worst of all – the country of Haiti. The most damaging side of the hurricane in terms of wind, rain and storm surge it its right side and this is what will slam into Haiti during the next few days. Beyond that, the Bahama Island chain will suffer Matthew’s wrath later in the week as it slowly grinds its way towards the Southeast US coastline where it will likely meander for a few more days before hopefully turning to the northeast and away from the US. This system still a long way to go on the weather scene and nothing is set in stone beyond five days or so.
Read MoreA very slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce an air flow off of the Atlantic Ocean and this moisture will contribute to more shower activity for the NYC metro region. In fact, the weekend will start off damp with the likelihood of more showers throughout the area. Genuine clearing in the Mid-Atlantic may have to wait until the early part of next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Matthew continues to move westward in the Caribbean Sea region and it could intensify into a major hurricane by early in the weekend. At some point late in the weekend or early next week, Matthew is likely to make a sharp right turn and heads towards the islands of Cuba or Hispaniola. After that, Matthew is likely to slowly move into the Bahama Islands region and it is unclear if it’ll then take a turn up the US east coast or stay out over the open waters of the western Atlantic - the "out-to-sea" scenario is the most likely.
Read MoreA very slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low will help to produce a persistent flow of air off the Atlantic Ocean and this moisture will contribute to copious amounts of rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. The greatest rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours or so are likely to take place from central Virginia to central Pennsylvania including the entire DC metro region; especially, in higher elevation locations where upsloping from persistent east-to-northeast winds will enhance rainfall amounts. Meanwhile, “Matthew” continues to churn as a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea region and it could intensify into a major hurricane by later in the weekend. At some point, Matthew will take a sharp turn to the north and all eyes in the eastern states should continue to monitor its progress.
Read MoreA slow-moving and vigorous upper-level low will drop south from the Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours and then stall out over the Tennessee Valley. The strength and slow movement of this system will allow for copious amounts of moisture to get pulled in from off the Atlantic Ocean and this setup could lead to several inches of rain by the weekend in parts of the central Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, a tropical system continues to head westward towards the Caribbean Sea and it could reach hurricane status there this weekend – perhaps even major. After that, there are signs that this tropical system could turn north or northwest towards the US east coast – stay tuned.
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