All eyes are now on the tropics now as soon-to-be Hurricane Michael is heading to the open Gulf of Mexico and it could very well reach "major" hurricane status before making landfall at mid-week. The overall upper-level pattern (i.e., very strong ridging centered over SE Canada/NE US) is one that opened the door for tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and indeed, this system had its origins last week in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and will now move northward over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Once Michael makes landfall, it is likely to turn from the north to the northeast and should ride up along the Southeast US coastline as it interacts with a frontal system. There is the high potential for heavy rainfall from Michael in places like North and South Carolina – where they certainly don’t need any – and even a chance it’ll impact the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week. It’ll turn colder for awhile behind the passage of this tropical system as some Canadian chill that has been bottled up to our north finally makes its way into the NE US.
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A cool front passed through the region last night and it’ll turn out noticeably cooler for today and tomorrow along with a light breeze from the northeast. There can be a light shower or some drizzle at just about any time today, tonight and on Saturday. High pressure ridging builds strongly early next week over southeastern Canada and we'll turn warmer once again with daily highs near the 80 degree mark for much of the week.
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Another cool front will reach our area tonight and it will generate more scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region. Following the frontal passage, there will be a noticeable cool down on Friday and it’ll stay comfortable through the upcoming weekend as well. In fact, the weekend looks like it will turn out quite nice with some sunshine each day to go along with those comfortable temperatures. Very strong high pressure ridging will set up early next week across southeastern Canada keeping us relatively dry and warm for this time of year. This kind of upper-level pattern with strong ridging to our north always raises a red flag this time of year for the potential of a tropical system to “slide underneath” the ridge and head towards the southeast US. Consequently, we’ll need to keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea, southwestern Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of weeks.
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A cold front passed through the region last night, but temperatures will not change all that much here today and with plenty of sunshine, afternoon highs should reach the upper 70's. Another frontal system will arrive in the area tomorrow night and it can bring us more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Following that frontal passage, temperatures will indeed trend downward for Friday and Saturday with afternoon highs on both days likely near 70 degrees. Looking ahead, it looks like high pressure ridging will persist across the NE US and SE Canada for much of next week and this will prevent any cold air from Canada to head in our direction through at least the middle of the month. In addition, strong and persistent high pressure ridging to the northeast of here this time of year always raises a red flag for any potential tropical systems to “slide underneath” towards the US. Therefore, we’ll need to keep a close eye on the Caribbean Sea, southwestern Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of weeks.
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A cold front will approach the region later today raising the chances of showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side; especially, across upstate PA. High pressure returns for the mid-week and then another weak cool front will arrive on Thursday night. Following that frontal passage, late week and weekend temperatures will drop back a few degrees to rather comfortable levels for this time of year. Contrary to my earlier thinking, it looks like the colder air that has been bottled up in Canada will remain up there into at least the middle of the month and it may wait to make an appearance around here until after another bout in the eastern US with a tropical system.
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The same high pressure system that brought us a very nice weekend will keep us protected today, but it will slide off the coast by tomorrow. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday raising the chances of showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. High pressure returns for the middle part of the week and it'll be centered near the Southeast US coastline. Elsewhere, the moisture from Tropical Storm Rosa will head into the Southwest US over the next couple of days and likely result in flooding rains for that part of the nation.
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Low pressure will pull away from the coast today and high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Midwest. As a result, skies should clear late today and the weekend is looking quite nice with dry conditions and comfortable fall-like temperatures.
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As has been the case many times during the past few months, the passage of a frontal system will not be the end of the story in terms of the potential for rain. A strong cool front passed through the region last night and it will stall out this morning just to the southeast of here. Low pressure is going to then ride up along the frontal boundary zone and will spread some significant rainfall into the region from late today into early Friday. Once that system scoots away, high pressure is likely to take over for the weekend leading to dry conditions and very comfortable temperatures throughout the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Temperatures will jump today ahead of a strong cool front that is advancing our way from the Upper Midwest with afternoon highs likely near the 80 degree mark. The arrival of the cool front late in the day/early tonight may be accompanied by some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity as several ingredients will be in place (e.g., high humidity, upper-level support, temperature clash). As has been the case during much of the summer season, the frontal passage will not be the end of the story as this one - just like many prior - will stall just to our southeast. Low pressure will ride up along the frontal boundary zone on Thursday and likely spread more showers into the region from later tomorrow into Friday. The weekend still has some hope as high pressure should take control likely providing us with dry conditions and comfortable temperatures.
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There will be periods of rain today accompanied by a warm frontal system that is lifting north through the region. A strong cold front will arrive late tomorrow and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms associated with that frontal system and temperatures will spike ahead of it to afternoon highs on Wednesday near 80 degrees. High pressure will return for the latter part of the week bringing very pleasant temperatures to the region.
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