7:00 AM | ***Significant rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region and a weekend hurricane threat***
Paul Dorian
6-Day NYC Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy, muggy, an occasional shower likely, highs in the mid 70's
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, cooler, showers likely, lows in the low-to-mid 50’s
Thursday
Cloudy, breezy, quite cool, periods of rain likely, near 60 degrees
Thursday Night
Cloudy, breezy, cool, periods of rain possible, near 50 degrees
Friday
Cloudy, windy, cool, rain likely, upper 50's
Saturday
Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain likely, potentially hurricane-like conditions depending on the track of Joaquin, mid 60’s
Sunday
Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain likely, potentially hurricane-like conditions depending on the track of Joaquin, mid 60’s
Monday
Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain likely, potentially hurricane-like conditions depending on the track of Joaquin, mid 60’s
Discussion
Tropical Storm Joaquin was in an environment yesterday that featured some vertical wind shear which kept a lid on intensification, but that wind shear relaxed somewhat overnight and strengthening has now brought Joaquin to hurricane status (category 1) with 75 mph winds. It is entirely possible that Hurricane Joaquin reaches category 2 or 3 levels over the next couple of days as it churns over the western Atlantic Ocean in a favorable environment. Quite a serious and complicated weather pattern is unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region with many players on the field and it could all result in very significant rainfall between tomorrow and the end of the weekend and - given the real threat of a hurricane strike - there is the possibility for damaging winds, power outages and beach erosion in coastal areas.
A strong cold front is slowly pushing through the region at this time and it will soon stall out along the east coast. This frontal system generated some heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region, but that is likely just the opening event. Low pressure now situated over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is then likely to ride up along the stalled out frontal boundary zone generating additional significant rainfall later in the work week. Then, as deep upper-level low sets up in the Southeast US, Hurricane Joaquin is likely to "pin wheel" towards the northwest on a track that could bring it to the Mid-Atlantic coastline over the weekend. All eyes from New Jersey to Virginia should closely monitor this situation. Computer forecast models are not universal in a Mid-Atlantic strike...there is still a scenario that keeps Joaquin out to sea although significant rainfall would still occur in the region. Stay tuned.
Video
httpv://youtu.be/kKRN3c5aszA