11:00 AM | *Snow later today in the Texas Panhandle…tropical troubles resulting in significant rainfall from the Gulf to Ohio Valley…widespread cold next week*
Paul Dorian
Widespread significantly colder-than-normal air will push into the Rocky Mountain States and central US during the early and middle parts of next week and there will be additional accumulating snow in many areas; courtesy ECMWF (00Z EPS), tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
While the eastern US is enjoying calm and seasonably cool conditions today under the domination of sprawling high pressure, there is a lot of weather to talk about across the rest of the nation. First, an unusual cold shot for late October has plunged all the way into the south-central US and it is going to be a contributing factor to accumulating snow later today in places like the Texas Panhandle. In addition, a strong tropical wave has become better organized during the past several hours over the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico and it will make a move to the north in coming days. As a result, copious amounts of tropical moisture will merge with an eastward moving cold front over the next couple of days and the result will be significant rainfall from the Gulf of Mexico to the Ohio Valley.
Looking ahead, another cold air mass for this time of year will drop down from Canada early next week into the Rocky Mountain States and spread out across the central US. This next air mass will likely be cold enough to generate widespread record low temperatures during the early and middle parts of next week from the Rockies to the Plains and more accumulating snow is likely to fall in many of those areas.
Significantly colder-than-normal air has plunged all the way into the south-central US and it will be a contributing factor later today to an unusual early season snowfall in the northern part of Texas, northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado; courtesy ECMWF (00Z EPS), tropicaltidbits.com
Texas snow
Much colder-than-normal air has plunged southward over the past 24 hours all the way to the south-central US and this will lead to some accumulating snow later today in the Panhandle region of northern Texas to include such cities as Amarillo. Several inches of snow fell upstream in the overnight hours across places like Denver (4-5”) and Boulder (7”) in Colorado and a more than a foot accumulated in the Front Range. In addition to northern Texas, there is likely to be accumulating snow later today across southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico. A few record low temperatures have already been set with this cold air outbreak earlier in the day in states like Utah, Wyoming and Idaho and more records can be set farther to the south over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will rebound quickly this weekend in the south-central US only to fall back again next week in the next widespread outbreak of cold air for this time of year (see below).
The tropical system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized in recent hours and has a chance to become a named tropical system. Whether or not it reaches tropical storm status, it’ll contribute to significant rainfall over the next few days from the Gulf of Mexico to the Ohio Valley. Satellite image courtesy College of DuPage, NOAA (GOES-16)
Gulf of Mexico tropical storm
An impressive tropical system continues to slowly intensify over the Bay of Campeche region of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it will make a move to the north in coming days. Whether or not this system reaches named (Olga) tropical storm status, it will play an important role in significant rainfall over the next few days from the northern Gulf region to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. As the tropical moisture flows northward in coming days, it will merge with an eastward moving cold front and the result will be several inches of rain in the stretch from the northern Gulf to the Ohio Valley. As the front slides towards the east coast on Sunday, some of the rain will make it into the Mid-Atlantic and NE US and it can be heavy at times.
Significant rainfall over the next few days will extend from the Gulf of Mexico to the Ohio Valley as a result of tropical moisture now over the Gulf merging with a slowly eastward-moving cold frontal system; forecast map courtesy NOAA/WPC
Threat of widespread cold next week
There are strong signs for another widespread cold blast early next week; especially, focused on the Rocky Mountain States and central US. Some computer forecast models (e.g., Euro) suggest temperatures could fall to as much as 40 degrees below normal for this time of year during the early and middle parts of next week and this would no doubt lead to some record low temperatures. In addition, accumulating snow is quite likely in places that have already been hit with snowfall this season from the Rocky Mountains to the Plains.
The colder-than-normal air mass will take its time progressing to the east and it will become modified by the time it actually reaches the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. The most likely timing for the arrival of the colder air in the eastern US will be right around Halloween Day which is next Thursday (October 31st). Around this time, a cold front will likely be sliding towards the east coast from the Midwest and its passage should usher in a modified version of this cold air mass to the eastern states by the end of next week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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