7:00 AM | ****Heavy rain event in much of the eastern US from later today into Friday...localized flash flooding a concern****
Paul Dorian
6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region
Today
Occasional showers into mid-afternoon then periods of rain during the late afternoon hours with a late day thunderstorm possible, some of the rain can be heavy at times late in the day, very windy with gusts past 40 mph possible, mild, highs in the lower 60’s
Tonight
Periods of rain, maybe a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain will be heavy at times, watch out for localized flooding conditions, very windy, mild, lows in the mid 50’s
Friday
Mainly cloudy, breezy, mild, occasional showers are likely, maybe a thunderstorm, upper 60’s for afternoon highs
Friday Night
Mainly cloudy, cooler, a few residual showers possible, maybe a thunderstorm, near 50 degrees for late night lows
Saturday
EArly clouds give way to mainly sunny skies, breezy, milder, mid 60’s
Sunday
Sunshine followed by increasing clouds, warm, chance of showers late in the day and at night, upper 60's
Monday
Partly sunny, warm, chance of showers, near 65 degrees
Tuesday
Mainly sunny, a bit cooler, near 60 degrees
Discussion
A north-to-south oriented surface cold frontal system that trails low pressure over the Great Lakes is inching its way towards the east coast and the atmosphere will moisten up significantly ahead it with an influx of tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico, SW Atlantic, and Caribbean Sea. This influx of tropical air will set the stage for excessive rainfall later today and tonight in much of the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. In fact, given the very slow movement of the frontal system and the high precipitable water amounts expected, total rainfall amounts could end up between 2 and 4 inches and flash flooding will become an increasing concern given the already saturated grounds. The upper-level energy supporting the low pressure will move over the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday generating additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. The weekend should start off on a decent note with some sunshine on Saturday and milder conditions after possible early morning lingering clouds. Another system, however, is likely to push more showers into the region by later Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com