7:00 AM | ****Soaking rain tomorrow into Friday morning...powerful Arctic front arrives here mid-day/early afternoon on Friday...dramatic change to follow its passage****

6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region

Today

Mainly sunny, cold, highs near 40 degrees; Light and variable winds

Tonight

Increasing clouds, cold, lows in the mid-to-upper 20’s

Thursday

Mainly cloudy, increasingly windy and turning milder, occasional rain that can begin briefly as a period of snow and/or ice in some of the N/W suburbs, some of the rain later in the day can be heavy at times, mid-to-upper 40’s for late day highs

Thursday Night             

Periods of rain, some heavy at times, and there can even be a thunderstorm, very windy, mild, temperatures holding steady or even rising slightly

Friday

Mainly cloudy, very windy and mild to start the day, additional rainfall during the morning hours and maybe a thunderstorm, temperatures likely to peak in the 50’s during the morning; expect an early-to-mid afternoon Arctic frontal passage which will result in plunging temperatures of 25 or 30 degrees in just a few hours, powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts, perhaps a “flash-freeze” and even a burst of snow with quick small accumulations of a coating to an inch or two

Saturday

Mainly sunny, windy, frigid, lower 20’s for afternoon highs

Sunday

Mainly sunny, still brisk with frigid conditions, mid 20’s

Monday

Mainly sunny, very cold, upper 20’s

Discussion              

Strong low pressure will develop on Thursday in the eastern US and it will push much milder air into the Mid-Atlantic region on increasingly strong S-SE winds. There is a chance, however, that enough cold air will be lingering around early tomorrow to result in a brief period of snow and/or ice in some of the northern and western suburbs; however, temperatures should climb to well above freezing levels by later in the day.  The rain can indeed fall heavily at times from later tomorrow into Friday morning and a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.  This surge of mild air will likely peak on Friday morning with temperatures likely in the 50’s, but that warmth will disappear abruptly during the afternoon hours on Friday.

The strong Arctic frontal system that represents the leading edge of an intensely cold Arctic air mass will reach the NYC metro region likely during the mid-day or early afternoon hours on Friday.  The passage of this powerful Arctic surface cold front will not go unnoticed.  On the table will be plunging temperatures on the order of 25 or 30 degrees in a short period of time, powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts, a possible “flash-freeze”, and even a burst of snow that can put down a quick small accumulation.  A frigid weekend will follow with Christmas Eve (Saturday) and Christmas Day (Sunday) the coldest for the holidays in many years across much of the eastern half of the nation. Single digits are certainly a possibility in the N/W suburbs along the I-95 corridor both on Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather