7:00 AM | ***Back-to-back soaking rain events from later today into early Monday...winds will become a noticeable factor in both systems...watch for coastal flooding Long Island/New Jersey***

6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region

Today

Mainly cloudy, cool, becoming windy, periods of rain for the afternoon, some of the late day rain can be heavy at times, highs near 60 degrees (normal high now in Central Park is 66 degrees); E-SE winds increasing to around 10-20 mph

Tonight

Mainly cloudy, windy, chilly, periods of rain, maybe a thunderstorm, some of the rain can be heavy at times, lows in the upper 40’s

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, cool, windy, occasional rain or drizzle, some of the rain can be heavy at times, low-to-mid 50’s

Saturday Night             

Mainly cloudy, chilly, breezy, occasional showers or drizzle, upper 40’s for late night lows

Sunday

Mainly cloudy, breezy, a bit milder, periods of rain that will continue on Sunday night, maybe a thunderstorm, some of the rain can be heavy at times, lower 60’s

Monday

Mainly cloudy in the morning with the chance for additional showers, mainly sunny in the afternoon, breezy, cool, mid 60’s

Tuesday

Partly sunny, breezy, unusually cool for the early part of May, chance of showers, upper 50’s

Wednesday

Partly sunny, cool, breezy, chance of showers, near 60 degrees

Discussion              

Rain associated with a northeastward moving storm system will spread into the NYC metro region later today and it’ll continue into the day on Saturday.  Some of the rain will become heavy at times, watch for localized flooding, and winds will increase in strength from an easterly direction. In fact, at the height of the storm, flooding may become an issue along coastal sections of Long Island and New Jersey given the fact that a stiff east-to-southeast flow of air will continue for a several hour period.  

By the time we get to the second half of the weekend, a multitude of upper-level lows will begin to consolidate into one as the northernmost system will become the dominant player and acts to “absorb” the other lows. The end result will be one deep upper-level low by the early part of next week centered over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface (and very similar to the first system on Friday and Saturday), an initial (primary) low will push towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline by late Sunday night/early Monday.  As with the first event, this second one will result in soaking rains for the NYC metro region and winds will become quite a noticeable factor as well. An unusually chilly air mass for early May will follow the second storm for the first half of next week and instability showers may take place from time-to-time.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather