7:00 AM | ***Beneficial rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday...windy, colder conditions to follow on Thursday and Friday with instability showers ...snow and/or ice pellets can mix in***
Paul Dorian
6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region
Today
Mainly sunny, not quite as mild as yesterday, but still above-normal, highs near 60 degrees; NW winds around 5 mph
Tonight
Mainly cloudy, chilly, maybe a light shower, lows in the middle 40’s
Wednesday
Becoming mainly cloudy, mild, near 60 degrees for afternoon highs
Wednesday Night
Mainly cloudy, windy, chilly, periods of rain, maybe a thunderstorm, near 45 degrees for late night lows
Thursday
Mainly cloudy, windy, colder, chance of rain showers which can be mixed in with snowflakes and/or ice pellets, near 50 degrees; chance of rain and/or snow showers at night
Friday
Partly sunny, windy, cold, chance of rain and/or snow showers, lower 40’s
Saturday
Partly sunny, still windy and cold, maybe a shower, upper 40’s
Sunday
Mainly sunny, breezy, chilly, lower 50’s
Discussion
High pressure will generally remain in control of the weather during the next couple of days, but then a complex low pressure storm system will dominate the scene later in the week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will push into the central US by mid-week and then deepen by later Thursday as it slides into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. At this point, the deep upper-level trough will become quite a slow-mover and “forced” to rotate around the northeastern states for a few days thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be centered over the northeastern part of Canada. At the surface level, an initial low pressure system will push into the Great Lakes region, and then a secondary low will form somewhere near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline during the latter part of the week.
The end result here will be occasional (and very beneficial) rain from later tomorrow into early Thursday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture as a strong cold front pushes through the area. In fact, this is likely to be the most significant rainfall event in several weeks for this area with 0.75” to 1.25” on the table. Occasional “instability” rain showers will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday night as the atmosphere remains quite unstable given the strong upper-level trough that will rotate around the northeastern states for awhile. As colder air becomes better established, snow and ice pellets can mix in with the “wraparound” showers from later Thursday through Friday and look for significant accumulating snow across portions of upstate NY to the north and west of here.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather