6:00 AM | ****Storm to form along incoming Arctic front on Sunday...several inches of snow on the table...brutally cold air mass to follow early next week****

6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region

Today

Mainly sunny, cold, highs near 40 degrees; W winds around 5-10 mph

Tonight

Increasing clouds, cold, lows in the upper 20’s

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, chilly, chance of rain showers, an outside chance for some ice or snow to mix in at times, this does not look like a heavy precipitation event, low-to-mid 40’s for afternoon highs

Saturday Night             

Mainly cloudy, cold, maybe a rain or snow shower, upper 20’s for late night lows

Sunday

Mainly cloudy, breezy, colder, good chance of accumulating snow during the PM hours that can become heavy at times, several inches of snow on the table, middle 30’s

Monday

Partly sunny, windy, very cold, middle 20’s with much lower wind chill values; single digit temperatures late at night

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, brutally cold, mid-to-upper teens at best for afternoon for highs! single digit temperatures late at night

Wednesday

Increasing clouds, still bitterly cold, upper teens for highs!

Discussion

An outbreak of Arctic air will get underway by early tomorrow over the central US and the bitter cold air mass will plunge southward all the way into the heart of Texas by late Saturday. On Sunday, the Arctic front at the leading edge of the Arctic air mass will slide into the eastern states and its progression will likely slow down across the southeastern states. Energy will rotate through an upper-level trough on Sunday, and this will open the door for an Arctic wave of low pressure to form along the front’s temperature gradient zone which is typically a favorable area for convergence in the atmosphere. That low pressure system should then push northeastward into an increasingly colder air mass, and it is likely to produce snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by later Sunday into Sunday night…accumulations of several inches are most certainly on the table with preliminary estimates of 4-8 inches in our area.

By Monday, January 20th, the bitter cold air will be firmly established across much of the nation, and this includes in the DC metro region where outdoor activities are planned for the Inauguration Day ceremonies. Temperatures are likely to be not far from 20 degrees at noontime on Monday in the DC metro area and there will be a biting wind to make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. In addition, there is likely to be a snow cover in DC on Monday following what I expect to be accumulating snowfall there on Sunday.  Temperatures on Monday night should easily drop into single digits along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and to below-zero levels across a huge part of the northern US. In fact, the first couple of days next week could turn out to be some of the coldest in a long, long across the nation with the brutally cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather