6:00 AM | **Melissa nearing Jamaica as a "cat 5"...soaking rain event on the way for the Mid-Atlantic from later tomorrow into Thursday night...cool and windy on Halloween Day with gusts to 40 mph**
Paul Dorian
6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region
Today
A mix of sun and clouds, breezy, cool, highs in the upper 50’s; E-NE winds around 5-15 mph; gusts to 25 mph
Tonight
Becoming mainly cloudy, chilly, maybe a couple of showers late, lows in the middle 40’s
Wednesday
Mainly cloudy, breezy, cool, chance of PM showers, mid-to-upper 50’s for afternoon highs
Wednesday Night
Mainly cloudy, chilly, rain is likely; especially, after midnight, some of the rain can be heavy late, upper 40’s for late night lows
Thursday
Mainly cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain and maybe a thunderstorm, some of the rain can be heavy, near 60 degrees
Friday
Lingering showers possible early; otherwise, partly sunny skies, windy with gusts possible to 40 mph, cool, mid-to-upper 50’s
Saturday
Mainly sunny, cool, upper 50’s
Sunday
Partly sunny, cool, mid-to-upper 50’s
Discussion
Hurricane Melissa is nearing the island of Jamaica this morning as a category 5 storm (175 mph maximum sustained winds) and will produce as much as 30-50 inches of rain when all is said and done. The hurricane has turned from a westerly to a northeasterly direction in recent hours and it will begin to accelerate during the next couple of days. As such, Melissa is likely to cross over eastern Cuba later tonight - as a major hurricane - and then over the southeastern Bahama Islands on Wednesday. By later Thursday, Melissa is likely to move over or very close to the island of Bermuda - likely still as a hurricane - and then wind up over the open waters of the North Atlantic by the weekend.
Meanwhile, an active weather pattern is setting up over the continental US featuring a deepening upper-level trough over the Tennessee Valley. This strong low aloft will help to spawn a strong low pressure system at surface-level on Wednesday which will then move in a northeasterly direction resulting in a soaking event for much of the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into Thursday night…1-3 inches on the table. The rain may linger for a bit on Friday morning in the northern Mid-Atlantic region, but the bulk of the day on Friday (Halloween Day) should feature cool and very windy conditions with gusts to 40 mph or so to go along with partly sunny skies. The weekend is looking dry and cool from this vantage point.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather