6:15 AM | ***A prolonged and significant rain event likely coming to the Mid-Atlantic region***
Paul Dorian
6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region
Today
Mainly sunny, warm, highs in the lower 70’s; E-NE winds around 5-10 mph
Tonight
Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm, lows in the middle 50’s
Friday
Partly sunny, breezy, quite warm and humid, an occasional shower is possible during the mid-to-late afternoon hours and there can be a late day thunderstorm, much of the time should be rain-free, low-to-mid 80’s for afternoon highs
Friday Night
Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of showers and thunderstorms, much of the time should be rain-free, lower 60’s for late night lows
Saturday
Partly sunny, warm, humid, occasional showers likely by late in the day and at night, maybe a late day/nighttime strong thunderstorm, near 80 degrees
Sunday
Mainly cloudy, not as warm, chance of rain, maybe a thunderstorm, upper 60’s
Monday
Considerable clouds, cool, chance of rain, maybe a thunderstorm low-to-mid 60’s
Tuesday
Considerable clouds, cool, chance of rain, maybe a thunderstorm low-to-mid 60’s
Discussion
There is a growing chance that a prolonged and significant rain event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region…something not seen in these parts in quite awhile.
While there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity from later today into later Saturday, the main event likely begins on Saturday night with heavier and steadier rainfall and then rain is likely to be a threat on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps even Wednesday as well. A warm front lifts through the region tonight with some shower activity and then Friday will turn into a very warm and humid day with scattered showers and thunderstorms…much of the day should be rain-free. On Saturday, a cold front will head towards the eastern US and showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely by the time we get to Saturday evening. Some of the rain late Saturday/Saturday night can be heavy at times with the arrival of the cold front and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity included.
Looking ahead, the upper-level pattern will evolve into an “omega-block” situation and one that can produce occasional rain and cooler conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday into the middle of next week. Some of this rainfall during the first half of next week can be heavy at times and this unfolding scenario could put a real dent in any drought conditions that remain in the area.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather