6:15 AM | ***Showers and thunderstorms a threat again this afternoon and evening and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe...torrential rain/flash flooding, damaging winds on the table***
Paul Dorian
6-Day forecast for the New York City metro region
Today
Partly sunny, warm, humid, breezy, good chance of PM showers and thunderstorms, any storm later today can be strong-to-severe producing torrential rainfall/flash flooding and damaging wind gusts; highs near 90 degrees; SW winds around 5-15 mph
Tonight
Mainly cloudy, mild, chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, any storm can be strong-to-severe producing torrential rainfall/flash flooding and damaging wind gusts, lows in the lower 70’s
Wednesday
Mainly cloudy in the morning with a lingering shower or thunderstorm, clearing skies in the afternoon, quite warm, middle 80’s for afternoon highs
Wednesday Night
Mainly clear, mild, upper 60’s for late night lows
Thursday
Partly sunny, quite warm, cannot rule out a late day or early evening shower or thunderstorm, upper 80’s
Independence Day
Mainly sunny, comfortably warm, lower humidity, middle 80’s
Saturday
Mainly sunny, warm, mid-to-upper 80’s
Sunday
Partly sunny, quite warm, more humid near 90 degrees
Discussion
A “conventional” surface cold front will approach the area later today from the northwest (last week’s “back door” cold front moved from northeast-to-southwest). In addition, an upper-level trough will shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region, intensify and enhance upward motion all along the I-95 corridor. Given the combination of these systems and the entrenched heat and humidity, showers and thunderstorms will reform later this afternoon and there is the risk that some of the storms will reach strong-to-severe levels containing torrential rainfall/flash-flooding and damaging wind gusts.
High pressure will take control of the weather on Wednesday and then a weak cold front will arrive late in the day on Thursday with an isolated shower or two possible. Following the passage of the weak cold front, the Independence Day holiday on Friday should turn out to be quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of sunshine, lower humidity, and comfortably warm conditions and that nice weather should last into at least the first part of the upcoming weekend.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield Weather