1:50 PM | Strong geomagnetic storm currently underway and it could cause northern lights into this evening...Friday will feature three celestial events

[Northern lights seen earlier today in northern Alaska; courtesy spaceweather.com]

Discussion

Northern Lights and an ongoing geomagnetic storm

Despite an overall quiet look to the sun, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit the earth’s magnetic field earlier today sparking bright auroras across many northern latitude locations around the world including the northern tier of the US. The sun is currently featuring just one noticeable sunspot region (circled area) and it is from here that the current geomagnetic storm originated. At first, the impact generated a relatively mild "G1-class" geomagnetic field, but then it intensified into a “G4-class” ranking it as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle (#24).

[Current image of the sun with sunspot region circled; courtesy spaceweather.com]

This storm could continue for many hours to come as the earth passes through the turbulent wake of the CME. Should the storm continue at its current intensity into the evening hours, northern lights could even be visible (in dark areas) as far south as the I-95 corridor. Skies should clear out this evening in the I-95 corridor following an Arctic cold frontal passage.

Friday will feature three celestial events

There will be three celestial events this Friday including a total solar eclipse, a "new supermoon", and the spring equinox, but none of these will actually present anything visible around here. In fact, the total solar eclipse will be seen by very few people as it's visible path - while unusually wide and long - will mostly pass over the open North Atlantic Ocean. A Supermoon, or perigee moon, happens when the full or new moon does its closest fly-by of the Earth, making it look bigger than it normally does. There are actually six supermoons during 2015, but only three of them are visible during the full moon phase. The supermoon this Friday will not be visible as it will occur during the new moon phase. And the spring equinox refers to the time of the year when the day and night are of equal duration, mid-way between the longest and shortest days.

10:50 AM | An update on Comet Lovejoy...now in its best two weeks

[Image of Comet Lovejoy; courtesy Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang]

Discussion

Overview Comet Lovejoy, C/2014 Q2, is in the midst of its best two weeks. Comet Lovejoy is now about magnitude 3.8, and it should remain that bright all week. On January 7th the comet passed closest by Earth, at a distance of 0.47 a.u. (44 million miles; 70 million km). Although the comet is receding from us now, its intrinsic brightness should still be increasing a bit. That's because it doesn't reach perihelion (its closest to the Sun) until January 30th (at a rather distant 1.29 a.u. from the Sun). By that date, the comet should finally be fading slightly from Earth's point of view.

Where to look Comet Lovejoy is high in the early-evening sky for binoculars or low-power, wide-field telescope viewing. It's also dimly visible to the unaided eye under dark-sky conditions — if you know exactly where to look! According to the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, you’ll find Comet Lovejoy high enough around 8 p.m. (and the later hours too) to the right of the constellation Orion and just under the constellation Taurus. Think of the three stars (Alnitak, Alnilam and Mintaka) of Orion’s belt as a pointer toward the comet, because if you look carefully in a very dark sky, you could see a faint glow. By Thursday, Friday and Saturday, the comet will pass to the right of the Pleiades cluster – also know as the Seven Sisters or Messier 45. Our original story on Comet Lovejoy with links to finder charts can be found at http://vencoreweather.com/2014/12/31/1000-am-comet-lovejoy-rings-in-the-new-year/. Skies may be clear this evening for comet viewing; however, clouds are likely to roll in from the south by late tonight.

[Finder chart for tonight, January 13th; map courtesy Andrew Ochadlick and heavens-above.com]

10:00 AM | Comet Lovejoy rings in the New Year!

[Image of Comet Lovejoy on 12/29/14; courtesy "spaceweather.com"]

Discussion

Comet Lovejoy is just now becoming visible to the naked eye in the northern hemisphere and it is expected to more than double in brightness by mid-January. Currently, the comet shines at magnitude +5.0 and can be seen in dark sky conditions as a fuzzy patch near Orion’s belt several hours after sunset. This is the fifth comet discovered by the Australian astronomer Terry Lovejoy – officially named C/2014 Q2 - and it will pass about 70 million kilometers (44 million miles) from the Earth on January 7th with its peak brightness expected to reach around 4th magnitude which should be pretty easily visible without any optical aid. The location of Comet Lovejoy will be a bonus as it should be relatively easy to find near the constellation of Orion. It’ll also glide past Taurus and the Pleiades over the next few weeks. The comet is moving to the north so it is getting higher all the time for Northern Hemisphere observers.

By January 7th – the time of closest approach – the nearly full moon will make it tougher to see, but after that the moon will rise late enough that it won’t be as big of a problem. In the photo (above) the comet-head appears green and the tail appears blue; however, those colors will likely not be apparent to the naked eye. These colors come from ionized carbon monoxide (CO+) and diatomic carbon (C2), which glow blue and green, respectively, in the near-vacuum of interplanetary space. Long exposure photography tends to bring out the green hue in the comet-head. As for the physical nature of the comet itself, it’s on a pretty long-period orbit, taking about 14,000 years to go around the Sun. The orbit takes it out to a distance of nearly 90 billion kilometers (for comparison, Neptune orbits at a distance of 4.5 billion kilometers).

Finder charts for January can be found here courtesy "Sky and Telescope": http://www.skyandtelescope.com/wp-content/uploads/Lovejoy2_BW.pdf Also, another web site that can help in the location of the comet can be found at http://heavens-above.com. Simply follow the instructions at this web site by entering your observing location under "Configuration" (Philadelphia is close enough for all of SE PA) and then enter Comet Lovejoy under "Astronomy" for a particular time.

10:45 AM | Spacecraft to land on comet early Wednesday after 10-year flight

PHOTO: Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is seen in a photo taken by the Rosetta spacecraft with the OSIRIS narrow-angle camera August 3, 2014.

Discussion

The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Rosetta spacecraft was launched in March 2004 and spent years in “hibernation” as it moved through some 4-billion miles of space at speeds as high as 84,000 mph on its way to a rendezvous with a comet officially known as “67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko”. Since August of this year, the spacecraft has been orbiting the comet with its closest point being about 18 miles and has taken numerous images revealing steep ravines, sharp cliffs and numerous boulders. The scheduled touchdown on the comet of the mission’s Philae lander – about the size of a washing machine - is set for this Wednesday at 10:35AM EST and, if all goes well, it would be the first-ever soft landing of a spacecraft on a comet. The gravity of the comet is 60,000 times less than the gravity of Earth, and scientists expect it will take the lander seven hours to free-fall about 14 miles from its mother ship, Rosetta, to the comet. Then there is a delay of 28 minutes for a signal from Rosetta to reach our planet. This will indeed be a difficult landing as the comet will be moving 40 times faster than a speeding bullet.

After touchdown, the Philae lander will obtain the first images ever taken from a comet’s surface and will drill into the surface to study the composition. Philae can remain active on the surface for about two and a half days. The mothership Rosetta will remain in orbit around the comet through next year continuing to study the comet as it approaches the sun and then moves away. Comets hold vital clues about our solar system’s history and are considered primitive building blocks that are literally frozen in time. NASA has provided 3 of the 16 instruments on board the Rosetta orbiter.

NASA will provide live coverage of the landing at: http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl2 or you can visit the ESA live streaming web site at http://new.livestream.com/ESA/cometlanding.

9:40 AM | Antares rocket explodes shortly after launch...two video viewpoints and an infrared imagery loop that shows the sudden warm spot

Discussion

The Antares rocket launch that was pushed off 24 hours by a boat in the safety zone region on Monday ended quickly last night in an explosion at the NASA/Wallops Island, Virginia facility. The unmanned commercial rocket which was headed for the International Space Station (ISS) to deliver 5,000 pounds of supplies and experiments blew up moments after liftoff on the Eastern Shore of Virginia creating a massive fireball. Fortunately, no injuries were reported on the ground. Officials from NASA and Orbital Sciences hope to find out what happened in the coming days by analyzing the data and debris that remains near the launch pad. The crew aboard the ISS is not lacking when it comes to supplies. They have food, water and other consumables necessary to support them well into next year. Here is video of the explosion from the official NASA feed http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHMmMgdcOSU and here is a video that was taken from 3000 feet (both courtesy YouTube) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciGK9FqUqXw. Finally, the University of Wisconsin has put together an infrared imagery loop that shows a sudden warm spot at the time of the explosion (red circle): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/141028_goes13_shortwave_ir_Wallops_rocket_explosion_anim.gif .

10:15 AM | **Rare dual space event early tonight...first nighttime launch of an Antares rocket at 6:45 pm and, at nearly the same time, transit of the International Space Station - both should be visible throughout the Mid-Atlantic region**

[Antares rocket on launch pad this weekend]

Discussion

Overview Sky watcher’s in the Mid-Atlantic region will have a chance to witness a rare dual space event early tonight as there will be the first nighttime launch of an Antares rocket and at nearly the same time the International Space Station (ISS) will be in transit and both events should be visible.

Antares Rocket Launch at NASA/Wallops NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility and Virginia’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport are all set to support the launch of Orbital Sciences’ Antares rocket this evening at 6:45 p.m. EDT – the first nighttime launch of the Antares rocket. The Antares rocket will carry Orbital’s Cygnus cargo spacecraft, loaded with some 5,000 pounds of supplies and science experiments, to the International Space Station (ISS). The launch to the ISS was delayed three days due to Hurricane Gonzalo and its direct hit on the island of Bermuda which is also home to a critical rocket tracking station. Orbital Sciences Corp.’s Antares rocket was raised into vertical position at launch Pad-0A early on Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014, at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia (above). Depending on local weather conditions, the Antares blastoff will be visible along much of the US eastern seaboard – stretching from Maine to South Carolina. This is the heaviest Cygnus cargo load to date because the Antares rocket is outfitted for the first time with a more powerful second stage from the manufacturer ATK.

[Another view of the Antares rocket]

The viewing map (below) shows the time at which one can first expect to see the Antares rocket after it is launched at around 6:45 pm this evening. In the DC metro region, look to the low horizon in the southeastern sky at launch time; in Philly look to the southern horizon; and in NYC look towards the south-southwest horizon at launch time.

Orbital 3 Launch from NASA Wallops Island, VA on Oct. 27, 2014 - Time of First Sighting Map. This map shows the rough time at which you can first expect to see Antares after it is launched on Oct. 27, 2014. It represents the time at which the rocket will reach 5 degrees above the horizon and varies depending on your location. As an example, using this map when observing from Washington, DC shows that Antares will reach 5 degrees above the horizon approximately 117 seconds after launch (L + 117 sec). Credit: Orbital Sciences

NASA will broadcast the Antares launch live on NASA TV starting at 5:45 p.m. – http://www.nasa.gov/nasatv. Launch updates will also be available via the Wallops Facebook and Twitter sites: www.facebook.com/NASAWFF www.twitter.com/NASA_Wallops

International Space Station pass In addition to the rocket launch, there will be a NW-to-SE International Space Station transit of the sky at about the same time which should also be visible along the east coast. Here are some Mid-Atlantic example times and sky locations for the viewing early tonight of the ISS:

1) Norristown, PA Area - Space Station Transit - Time: Mon Oct 27 6:50 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 61 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SE

2) Chantilly, VA Area - Space Station Transit - Time: Mon Oct 27 6:49 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 88 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: SE

3) New York, NY Area - Space Station Transit - Time: Mon Oct 27 6:51 PM, Visible 4 min, Max height: 48 degrees, Appears: W, Disappears: SSE

12:25 PM | Wake up to a total lunar eclipse on Wednesday, October 8th (weather permitting of course)

Discussion

On the early morning of Wednesday, October 8th, a total lunar eclipse will be visible across most of North America as long as skies cooperate. This will be the second of four total lunar eclipses that come at 6-month intervals in 2014 and 2015 – referred to as a lunar eclipse tetrad – and all four can be seen from parts of North America. The first eclipse of the tetrad took place on April 14-15 of this year, but this next one will feature a moon that is 5% larger in diameter coming two days after perigee. A lunar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes directly behind the Earth into its umbra (shadow). This can occur only when the Sun, Earth, and Moon are aligned (in "syzygy") exactly, or very closely so, with the Earth in the middle. Hence, a lunar eclipse can only occur the night of a full moon.

The interesting part about this upcoming total lunar eclipse for those in the eastern US is that it will occur just before dawn in the very low western sky before the moon actually sets below the western horizon and this viewpoint should offer great photo opportunities if skies cooperate. The rough timetable in the Mid-Atlantic region is as follows: eclipse begins around 4:15 am, it reaches totality around 6:30 am at which time it should be completely red (above) and very close to the western horizon, and then the moon will set below the western horizon around 7:00 am. Start looking now for a wide open view of the western horizon.

1:00 PM | The second CME has just arrived!

[Northern lights visible last night in Arizona from the initial CME; photo courtesy spaceweather.com]

Discussion

The second of the expected coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has just had an impact on NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft (arrow on plot below points out impact time) and this usually happens a short time before an impact on the Earth’s upper atmosphere. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft carrying six high-resolution sensors and three monitoring instruments samples low-energy particles of solar origin. ACE also provides near-real-time 24/7 continuous coverage of solar wind parameters and solar energetic particle intensities (space weather). When reporting space weather, ACE provides an advance warning (about one hour) of geomagnetic storms that can overload power grids, disrupt communications on Earth, and present a hazard to astronauts. As expected, an initial looks shows this second CME to be stronger than the first which arrived yesterday. The second CME is the result of an X-class solar eruption that took place on September 10th from sunspot region AR2158.

Meanwhile, an eruption on the sun on September 9th from the same sunspot region resulted in an initial and slightly weaker CME that managed to generate northern lights last night visible as far south as Arizona (photo above; courtesy spaceweather.com). Apparently, there has not been an aurora visible in Arizona skies since the previous solar maximum. Typically, northern lights take on more of a reddish color at low latitudes as seen in the photograph.

Sky watchers should remain on alert tonight for possible northern lights in the northern latitudes and as far as south as the middle latitudes. It is quite likely that the best chance tonight for viewing any potential northern lights in the I-95 corridor between DC and New York City will come early as clouds are likely to roll in late.

[Impact on NASA's ACE spacecraft just a short time ago (arrow) from the arrival of the second CME; courtesy NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center]

11:15 AM | A second and even stronger solar flare erupts from same active sunspot region; not one, but two CMEs headed our way

Discussion

Not one, but two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are headed for Earth and they are expected to have a potent impact on Earth’s magnetic field. Active sunspot region AR2158 – still directly facing the Earth – launched a solar storm cloud on Tuesday, September 9th, and this was then followed by an even stronger explosion on Wednesday, September 10th, that classified as an X-class solar flare (image above). According to NOAA forecasters, there is now an 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Friday, September 12th, when the first of the two CMEs arrives and the second one could arrive on Saturday. Auroras are in the offing – perhaps even visible at mid-latitudes during the next few nights - and there can be intermittent GPS problems. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the sun, but AR2158 is the largest and most active.

The plot below shows the current extent and position of the “auroral oval” in the northern hemisphere, extrapolated from measurements taken during the most recent polar pass of the NOAA POES satellite [courtesy NOAA Space Prediction Center]. This plot provides an estimate of the location, extent and intensity of aurora on a global basis under the conditions that existed at the time of the most recent polar satellite pass. Notice some aurora activity (blue area on plot) measured as far south as the middle latitudes in the US.

Geomagnetic storms of this magnitude are not uncommon, but the current solar cycle (#24) - now experiencing a "double-peak" type of maximum phase - has been relatively quiet and is on pace to be the weakest solar cycle in a century. Powerful solar storms can, in fact, occur during weak solar cycles. The "superstorm" of all solar storms in recent history known as the Carrington Event of 1859 took place during another weak solar cycle (#10) that somewhat resembles our current cycle.

Bottom line, sky watchers should be on alert for possible northern lights over the next few nights from this pair of incoming CMEs.

(For a detailed discussion on the Carrington Event of 1859 click here: http://thesiweather.com/2014/09/02/300-pm-the-carrington-event-of-1859-a-solar-superstorm-that-took-places-155-years-ago/ and for a detailed discussion on solar cycle 24 click here: http://thesiweather.com/2014/07/16/1045-am-the-sun-has-gone-quiet-solar-cycle-24-continues-to-rank-as-one-of-the-weakest-cycles-more-than-a-century/).

3:00 PM | The Carrington Event of 1859 - a solar superstorm that took place 155 years ago

[Sunspots sketched by Richard Carrington on Sept. 1, 1859. Copyright: Royal Astronomical Society]

Discussion

It was this time of year 155 years ago when the solar superstorm, now known as the Carrington Event, took place during solar cycle 10. The event has been named for the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, as he observed from his own private observatory the largest solar flare during this event which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth. The 33-year-old astronomer - widely acknowledged at the time to be England’s best - also recorded in detailed fashion the appearance of the sunspot regions that he saw at the time.

From August 28, 1859 to September 2, 1859 numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun and auroras were being observed in different parts of the world. Just before noon on September 1st, Richard Carrington was using his telescope to project an 11-inch wide image of the sun on a screen and he carefully drew the sunspots that he saw. Suddenly, two brilliant beads of blinding white light appeared over the sunspots and he realized that he was witnessing something unprecedented. He left for about one minute to find another witness and found upon their return that much had already subsided.

Just before dawn the next day, skies all over Earth erupted in red, green and purple auroras - even in tropical locations like Cuba, the Bahamas and Hawaii. The massive solar flare caused a major CME that reached the Earth some 17.6 hours later. Normally such a journey takes 3 or 4 days, but an earlier CME actually cleared the way of the ambient solar plasma for the second blast to move so quickly. The auroras were so bright over the Rocky Mountains that their glow awoke gold miners who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora’s light. Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America went haywire and, in some cases, telegraph operators were literally shocked as sparks were flying and telegraph paper was often set on fire. Some systems continued to work despite being disconnected from their power supplies as aurora-induced electric currents still allowed messages to be transmitted.

Now we know that solar flares happen frequently, especially during solar sunspot maximums, but in those days there were no X-ray satellites or radio telescopes and no one knew flares existed until that September morning. “It is rare that one can actually see the brightening of the solar surface which takes a lot of energy to heat up the surface of the sun” says a modern day NASA astronomer. “In the 160-year record of geomagnetic storms, the Carrington event is the biggest.” In fact, going back farther in time by examining Arctic ice (energetic particles leave nitrates in ice cores), it is estimated that this event may have been the biggest in 500 years and nearly twice as big as the runner-up.

In today’s world, electronic technologies have become embedded into everyday life and are, of course, quite vulnerable to solar activity. Power lines, long-distance telephone cables, radar, cell phones, GPS, satellites – all could be significantly affected by an event like this one. The good news is that observations of the sun are a constant in today’s world with a fleet of spacecraft in position to monitor the sun and gather data on solar flares. The bad news is that the Carrington Event occurred during a weak solar cycle (10) which actually resembles rather closely our current solar cycle (24) so we always have to stay on guard for a potential powerful solar storm - even during times of weak solar cycles.