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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Space Weather

10:40 AM | Sun quiet again as it heads toward solar minimum

Paul Dorian

The sun has been completely spotless on 21 days in 2016 and it is currently featuring just one lonely sunspot region.  In fact, on June 4th of this year, the sun went completely spotless for the first time since 2011 and that quiet spell lasted for about four days.  Sunspot regions then reappeared for the next few weeks on a sporadic basis, but that was followed by several more completely spotless days on the surface of the sun. The increasingly frequent blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an even greater number of spotless days over the next few years.  At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir.  The next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906.  One other note, the weak solar cycle and the expectation for continued low solar activity this upcoming winter is an important factor in this year’s colder-than-normal Winter Outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region.

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10:10 AM | The super solar storm of 1859 now known as the Carrington Event

Paul Dorian

The sun has been relatively quiet in recent years and the current solar cycle (24) is actually on pace to be the weakest in over one hundred years. Even weak solar cycles, however, can produce significant solar storms. In fact, it was this time of year back in 1859 when a super solar storm - now known as the Carrington Event - took place during another weak solar cycle (# 10).  The event has been named for the British astronomer, Richard Carrington, as he observed from his own private observatory the largest solar flare during this event which caused a major coronal mass ejection (CME) to travel directly toward Earth.  Fortunately, solar storms of this magnitude are quite rare as it would very likely have a much more damaging impact on today’s world than it did in the 19th century.  

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9:50 AM | This type of solar event hasn’t happened in the US since 1979, but it returns next year

Paul Dorian

The year was 1979.  The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to winning the “we are family” baseball championship.  The Philadelphia Phillies were only a year away from their first ever World Series championship.  And this was the last time that there was a total solar eclipse visible from the contiguous US. Next year  - on Monday, August 21, 2017 - not only will there be a total solar eclipse on US soil for the first time since 1979, but totality will extend from coast-to-coast across a good chunk of the country and it will be the first total eclipse visible only in the US since the country was founded in 1776. The next total solar eclipse on US soil will take place in April 2024.

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2:20 PM | Perseid meteor shower later this week to be especially good – weather permitting

Paul Dorian

The annual Perseid meteor shower has already begun and it will peak later this week with the best viewing set for midnight-to-dawn early Friday morning (August 12) and midnight-to-dawn early Saturday morning (August 13). The Perseid meteor shower comes every August as the Earth passes through a cloud of dust that comes from Comet Swift-Tuttle as it approaches the sun.  Earth's gravity pulls in some of the chunks of debris — small rocks comprised of iron-nickel, stone, other minerals or a combination of these — which turn into bright balls of hot gas when entering Earth's atmosphere. In dark locations with clear skies, the Perseid meteor rate usually averages from 60 to 100 per hour, but this year could be as high as 200 in an hour - of course that is all weather permitting.

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3:00 PM | *The sun has gone completely blank*

Paul Dorian

The sun has gone completely blank.  This may not last too long, but at least for now, there are no visible sunspots – a sure sign of an approaching solar minimum - and this is the first spotless day on the sun since 2014.  In fact, there has been only one spotless day on the sun since 2011 – until today that is.  The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. Solar cycle number 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. 

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9:00 AM | *Magnetic North Pole is slowly moving towards Asia as Earth’s magnetic field changes quicker than previously thought*

Paul Dorian

The Earth’s magnetic field acts like a shield protecting us from harsh solar winds and cosmic radiation and new research has shown just how rapidly it is changing.  With more than two years of measurements by the European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm satellite trio, changes in the strength of Earth’s magnetic field are being mapped in detail.  The magnetic field has actually weakened over parts of the world in recent years, strengthened over others, and is changing quicker than previously thought. In addition, the magnetic north pole is wandering east towards Asia. These changes have occurred over the relatively brief period between late 1999 and May 2016.

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2:20 PM | Planet Mercury crosses the face of the Sun on Monday, May 9th in rare astronomical event

Paul Dorian

On Monday, May 9th, there is an opportunity throughout the Americas and nearly everywhere on Earth to witness a rare astronomical event: a transit of Mercury across the face of the sun. Mercury and Venus are closer to the sun than Earth is; consequently, the two planets occasionally pass between the Earth and sun performing what is referred to as a “solar transit”. This type of event happens less than twice a century with Venus and 13 or 14 times a century with Mercury with Monday the next occurrence.

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10:30 AM | Why the recent lunar eclipse was so dark

Paul Dorian

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[Image of the relatively dark moon taken in Massachusetts during totality of the recent eclipse]

Discussion

Overview

On September 27th, the moon passed through the shadow of Earth and the total lunar eclipse was witnessed by millions around the world. Most people agreed that the lunar eclipse was darker than usual (example image above) – not the often seen bright orange or red. Believe it or not, the darker appearance to the moon during the total eclipse was actually due in large part to a volcanic eruption that took place in Chile months earlier.

Volcanic dust in the stratosphere

Chile’s Calbuco volcano erupted in April 2015 and six months later we are still seeing the effects of the volcanic aerosols (ash, dust, sulfuric acid droplets) that reached the lower stratosphere. Sunsets in both hemispheres have been more colorful than normal from the upper atmosphere volcanic aerosols and it appears to have affected the eclipse as well.

When the stratosphere is full of volcanic ash and other aerosols, lunar eclipses then to be dark red whereas when stratospheric conditions are relatively clear, lunar eclipses can be bright orange. Sunlight has to pass through these light-absorbing minerals and chemicals on its way through the atmosphere and into Earth’s shadow. Less light means a darker moon during total eclipse. The eclipse of September 27th was measured by trained observers at 0.4 magnitude dimmer than expected, a brightness reduction of around 33 percent (plot below).

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[Predicted lunar eclipse brightness; courtesy Dr. Keen, University of Colorado]

Volcanic dust in the atmosphere also acts to cool the Earth below by reflecting sunlight. This particular volcanic eruption actually created a very small amount of cooling on Earth; however, there have been past eruptions resulting in more significant cooling around the world. For example, the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 produced much more cooling than Calbuco and it resulted in rare July snows across higher elevations of the US Rocky Mountains.

Other possible contributing factor

Forest fires that raged across the western states and Canadian provinces all spring and summer may also have contributed to the darker than normal appearance of the moon during the recent eclipse. Most of that wildfire smoke usually stays in the lower part of the atmosphere, but some may have found its way to the stratosphere, the very layer responsible for transmitting most of the sunlight that falls into Earth’s shadow and colors the moon.