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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:00 AM | *****Major nor'easter pounds region from later today into Tuesday with heavy snow, strong winds, blowing and drifting, possible "thunder snow"; worst affects will be on the northeast side, less to the southwest*****

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Occasional snow that will be sporadic and light-to-moderate this morning, but then pick up in intensity and become steadier during the afternoon, breezy, cold, highs in the mid-to-upper 20’s

Tonight

Snow, heavy at times, windy, very cold, blowing and drifting, “thunder snow” possible, lows near 20 degrees by morning

Tuesday

Snow, heavy at times, windy, very cold, blowing and drifting, “thunder snow” possible, low-to-mid 20’s

Tuesday Night

Snow winds down early; otherwise, mostly cloudy, brutal cold, total snow accumulations range from 8 inches in western areas (e.g., western Chester County) to 18 inches in northeastern sections (e.g., Bucks County), even more across New Jersey, middle teens

Wednesday

Partly sunny, very cold, mid 20’s

Thursday

Becoming cloudy, cold, snow at night, low 30’s

Friday

Mostly cloudy, cold, periods of snow, low 30’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, very cold, mid 20’s

Discussion

The potential exists for one of the all-time great nor'easters tonight and Tuesday in the region from New York City/New Jersey-to-Boston. This will be a two-part event with the first part lasting into this afternoon associated with a “clipper” type of system. This first part will feature sporadic light-to-moderate snowfall this morning with temperatures already well below freezing there can be some small accumulations. Then, once this system reaches the western Atlantic Ocean later today, the combination of the relatively warm ocean water, a powerful upper-level jet streak and an influx of brutally cold Arctic air from the northwest will cause it to explode off of the Northeast US coastline. As the afternoon progresses, the snow will become steadier and heavier with the brunt of the storm occurring here tonight and through much of Tuesday. There will be blowing and drifting of snow later tonight and Tuesday as winds crank up out of the northeast (35 mph here, 50 mph at the Jersey Shore). This snow will be of the dry, fluffy variety – not like the wet snow of Friday night. “Thunder snow” is even possible later tonight and on Tuesday as the storm intensifies rapidly.

The worst impact of the storm will be in eastern sections of the Philly metro region. Snowfall accumulations by the time the storm winds down late tomorrow could range quite widely across the overall area with western sections such as western Chester County experiencing 8 inches or so and areas to the east from eastern Bucks County to interior South Jersey experiencing as much as 18 inches or so. The shore areas of New Jersey will have blizzard conditions tonight and Tuesday and could receive up to 2 feet of snow. One last point, the overall weather pattern looks absolutely frigid for the foreseeable future – perhaps right through February -and there will be multiple snow threats with the next one arriving late Thursday into Friday. The cold shot that arrives in about a week could bring record-breaking cold into the Northeast US as we begin the month of February.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/8gdXdUWptjI