7:00 AM | ****"The Blizzard of 2016" begins in NYC metro region later tonight****
Paul Dorian
6-Day NYC Forecast
Today and tomorrow
A blizzard warning affects much of metro region (see discussion for details)
Sunday
Early clouds and possible lingering snow showers give way to clearing skies, windy, cold, low-to-mid 30’s
Monday
Partly sunny, cold, mid-to-upper 30’s
Tuesday
Partly sunny, not as cold, low 40’s
Wednesday
Partly sunny, cold, upper 30’s
Discussion
This continues to look like a high-impact and long-lasting storm for the NYC metro region that will include significant snow accumulations of 8-14 inches - perhaps even more south of town - some serious blowing and drifting, isolated power outages, and perhaps even some thunder snow and lightning. The snow should arrive later tonight in the NYC metro region between 10pm and 2am. There is a chance for a "changeover to" or a "mixing with" rain and/or sleet for awhile during this storm; primarily, to the south of NYC, but for NYC and points north and west, this should mainly be a snow event. The snow is likely to come down at varying rates on Saturday and Saturday night as small-scale or “mesoscale” banding is likely to set up given the impressive dynamics involved with this unfolding system. Specifically, the snow can fall heavily at times with blizzard conditions and can also slacken off to “little or nothing” at times as well if a dry slot develops. There may be a sharp drop off in snow accumulation amounts on the northern edge of the storm’s precipitation field in the northern suburbs of NYC. At the northern New Jersey Shore and in Long Island, coastal flooding and beach erosion are a major concern given the expected sustained period of strong NE winds (plus Saturday’s full moon). Wind gusts could reach 70 mph at coastal locations by later tomorrow and 50 mph at inland areas including near I-95 in NYC. Also, given the expected long-period of strong winds and the possible mixture in some areas of snow, sleet and rain, power outages are a real concern as the weight may be too much for some tree limbs. Temperatures should generally be confined to the 20’s during the storm. Stay tuned - there is still a chance that this turns into a 2+ foot storm all the way from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.