2:30 PM | *Still closely monitoring tropical system "99L"*
Paul Dorian
Latest colorized IR image of the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea with tropical system "99L" circled; courtesy Penn State eWall, NOAA
Overview
The tropical system still officially known as "99L" is currently located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. An area of showers and thunderstorms has increased in intensity and coverage during the past few hours, but it still appears to be separated from the low-level circulation center just off to its west. However, even though the system is currently disjointed, there are some factors that are favorable for intensification in the near term and this is reason to continue to closely monitor the situation; especially, for those in Florida and along the entire Gulf coast.
72-hour loop of "total precipitable water" where high moisture content is indicated by orange; courtesy University of Wisconsin/CIMSS
Short-term favorable factors for intensification
Wind shear played a role in keeping the tropical system disorganized on Thursday as did its encounter with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Wind shear today, however, has diminished in the general vicinity, and it is generally favorable for intensification along the expected near term path. In addition, the 72-hour loop of “total precipitable water” shows high moisture content surrounding the tropical wave and it appears it’ll stay quite moist in the path that lies ahead. As with the diminishing wind shear, high moisture content is a favorable factor for intensification. Finally, water temperatures are generally above-normal in the western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico and this is favorable for intensification chances. In terms of impact on southern Florida and the Florida Keys, downpours can be expected for the latter part of the weekend and into the early part of next week along with gusty thunderstorms. Longer-term, it is unclear whether this system makes it to the Gulf of Mexico or makes a turn over Florida or just to its east. If it were to reach the Gulf of Mexico, it would certainly benefit from some very warm water as much of the Gulf is greater than 85°F and could ultimately reach major hurricane status.
Wind shear (knots) where "green" is favorable for tropical cyclone intensification; courtesy University of Wisconsin/CIMSS
Stay tuned, it ain’t over till it’s over.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.