1:45 PM *Tropical Storm Nate headed towards the central Gulf of Mexico…could reach Louisiana/Mississippi as a hurricane by early Sunday…heavy rain likely to spread to the interior Northeast US*
Paul Dorian
Circled region shows area of convective clouds associated with Tropical Storm Nate; image courtesy Penn State eWall, NOAA/GOES
Overview
Tropical Storm Nate is now skirting the coastline of Nicaragua and is likely to continue on a northwest track and into the central Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. Nate could very well intensify into hurricane status by late Saturday over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico and then continue northward right towards the Louisiana/Mississippi border region by early Sunday. After that, Nate is likely to take a turn to the northeast and move through the Tennessee Valley on Monday and into the interior part of the Mid-Atlantic region. This potential path would likely bring some significant rainfall to much of the eastern US early next week which is welcome news for the area considering the dry weather pattern of the past few weeks.
The latest official forecast track (and "cone") for Tropical Storm Nate by NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.
Discussion
As of 11 am, Tropical Storm Nate has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is drifting northwest at 9 mph. The latest visible satellite imagery shows impressive convection surrounding Tropical Storm Nate over the eastern tip of Nicaragua. A second tropical wave currently is situated over the Florida Straits and while this second system has little chance of intensification, it is going to influence the ultimate path of Nate. It looks like Nate will head over the eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico on Friday and then continue northward into the south-central Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. From there, Nate could intensify into hurricane status and head towards the Louisiana/Mississippi border region by early Sunday – a bit farther to the west than earlier thinking due to the interaction with this second tropical wave.
For some good news, in addition to the second tropical wave's influence on the ultimate path of Tropical Storm Nate (westward), it is likely to inhibit its intensification potential somewhat while over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, while Nate can climb to hurricane status, it likely has little, if any, chance of growing into a major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5) this weekend. If the second tropical wave were not sitting over the Florida Straits, Nate would have a better chance of growing into a major hurricane as well as taking a path closer to the west coast of Florida.
Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nate is likely to spread northeastward early next week through the interior eastern US; map courtesy NOAA
After this system makes landfall in the central Gulf States, it should change course somewhat and push to the northeast. This expected path would bring it over the Tennessee Valley on Monday and ultimately to a position over the interior Mid-Atlantic region. Tropical moisture associated with the remains of Nate are likely to result in some significant rainfall for much of the eastern US; especially, to interior sections where it has been quite dry in recent weeks.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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