1:10 PM | *Tropics still full of potential…multiple upcoming threats*
Paul Dorian
Tropical Storm Irma (left circle) over the eastern Atlantic and another significant tropical wave over Africa (right circle); image courtesy University of Wisconsin/CIMSS; NOAA
Overview
Tropical Storm Harvey has made a second landfall in southwestern Louisiana and is now about 30 miles to the north of Lake Charles with sustained winds at 45 mph. Meanwhile, Irma has formed in the eastern Atlantic and it could become a major hurricane in coming days. In fact, in about 10 days or so, Irma could become a big problem to deal with in the region of the Southeast US, Bahamas or northern Caribbean Sea – just too early to say. In about 5 days or so, there are some signs that another tropical system could form in the western Gulf of Mexico – the last thing that is needed in that area. Meanwhile, another very impressive tropical wave lurks right over the breeding grounds region of Africa and it could ultimately become another system to watch as it reaches the Atlantic.
The latest visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Harvey now centered over Louisiana; image courtesy NOAA/GOES, Penn State ewall
Harvey
Tropical Storm Harvey has finally begun an advance to the north-northeast and this general motion will continue for the next couple of days. With its position now over land, Harvey is going to weaken to tropical depression status in the near term as it heads towards Tennessee and Kentucky and then get absorbed by a developing trough in the northeastern US. Rain is likely to spread into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday night and Saturday – partly as a result of the remains of Harvey. In addition to the potential for some rain around here, it’ll turn very cool for this time of year and well-below normal for both Friday and Saturday with all areas in the I-95 corridor struggling to pass the 70 degree mark for highs on each day (normal high is now 85° at DCA, 84° at PHL and 81° in Central Park, NY).
00Z Euro model forecast for 10 days out (September 9th) with a forecast of Irma near the southeastern Bahamas
Irma
Irma is now a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic with sustained winds of 50 mph and it is heading west at 13 mph. This system has strengthened in the past 24 hours and is very likely to intensify into hurricane status over the next few days – major hurricane status is also a very real possibility over the next several days. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will likely steer Irma to the west over the next few days, but after that, there are signs that the ridge could expand southwestward which could actually result in a somewhat unusual turn to the southwest for a time for Irma. This system will have to be closely monitored and it could become a big problem to deal with in about 10 days or so anywhere from the northern Caribbean to the Southeast US.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com