12:25 PM | *Irma likely to become a major hurricane - and a big concern in about ten days or so*
Paul Dorian
Latest satellite image of Irma in the eastern Atlantic Ocean; image courtesy NOAA, wunderground.com
Overview
The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around September 10th and that is right around the time the US east coast may be dealing with a big problem named Irma. Irma has strengthened rapidly in the eastern Atlantic to category 2 hurricane status and is likely to reach major hurricane status (i.e., category 3) by tonight or Friday. In fact, there are reasons to believe significant further strengthening will take place over the next several days and Irma could very well reach the highest category 5 status at some point in its lifetime. It is too early to tell if Irma will take a “southern” track towards the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico or more of a “northern” track towards the Bahamas and Southeast US, but in either case, it looks like it’ll become a powerful storm and a major problem.
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin with current location of Irma; courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA
Irma
Irma currently has sustained winds of 100 mph and is move WNW at 10 mph. Its central pressure has already dropped to 28.91 inches which is a rapid decline in the past 24 hours or so. Irma is currently situated over water that is only about 26 or 27 degrees Celsius and yet has undergone some rapid development. Over the next several days, Irma will trek over some even warmer water and further intensification is likely. A ridge of high pressure will build over the central Atlantic Ocean by the weekend forcing Irma to turn westward and perhaps even in a southwesterly direction for awhile. The latest NOAA hurricane model (HWRF) forecast map brings Irma relatively close to the Windward Islands in about five days as a major hurricane.
One final note, an impressive tropical wave currently right over the African west coast is liable to follow right behind Irma and it would be called Jose.
Forecasted track and max wind speed of Irma over the next five days using NOAA's HWRF model; courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com
Extended morning video discussion on Irma: