1:15 PM | *Hurricane Jose may take a strange path and become a concern in ten days or so*
Paul Dorian
Overview
Hurricane Jose has weakened to a category 1 storm with max sustained winds at 75 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb. It is currently just crawling along at 7 mph towards the southeast and may actually do a loop over the next several days in the central Atlantic. Beyond that, strong high pressure ridging is likely to form over the north Atlantic and this could halt the advance of Jose and it is not out of the question that Jose then starts creeping back towards the US east coast.
00Z Euro 9-day (Sept 22) forecast map with strong high pressure ridging (orange) over the Northeast US and Jose off the Mid-Atlantic coastline with a central pressure of 980 mb; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com
Discussion
In 1967, Hurricane Doria took an unusual path by first seemingly heading out-to-sea, but then it ultimately turned westward and headed back towards the US east coast. In fact, Doria eventually made landfall as a tropical storm in the Mid-Atlantic region after having spent several days out-at-sea.
00Z Euro 10-day (Sept 23) forecast map with strong high pressure ridging (orange) edging farther to the east over the Atlantic Ocean and Jose a bit closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline with a central pressure of 979 mb; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com
The cause of the back-tracking of Doria was an area of high pressure over New England which steered the system westward. It is not out of the question that Hurricane Jose has the same kind of future in store as strong high-pressure ridging is likely to form over the north Atlantic in 7-10 days and this could drive Jose from “out-to-sea” back towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Last night’s 00Z Euro forecast map for 9 days out and 10 days indeed show strong high pressure ridging over the north Atlantic (orange) and a westward moving Jose. Stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com