1:40 PM | *Jose losing tropical characteristics as it churns to the north…Maria is a big concern as it strengthens to “major” hurricane status and heads toward the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico*
Paul Dorian
The latest visible image loop of Hurricane Jose which is losing its tropical characteristics as it heads to the north. Images courtesy NOAA/GOES
Overview
The tropics remain very active in the Atlantic Basin with Hurricanes Jose and Maria and Tropical Depression Lee. Hurricane Jose is now losing its tropical characteristics, but will still have an impact later tomorrow and tomorrow night on southern New England and eastern Long Island and perhaps as far to the southwest as western Long Island, New York City, and coastal New Jersey. Hurricane Maria is the biggest concern and has just reached “major” hurricane status. Maria is likely to strike Puerto Rico and the US Virgins Islands at mid-week as a "major" hurricane. Tropical Depression Lee is liable to fall apart in the next few days as it faces unfavorable environmental conditions in the far eastern Atlantic.
Jose
The latest satellite images of Jose are not all that impressive and suggest the storm is losing some tropical characteristics. It is still being officially referred to as a hurricane by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (category 1), but it is probably better to be now considered as “extra-tropical” as it is interacting with a frontal system. Regardless of its official designation, Jose is likely to continue on a northward track over the next 24 hours and is not likely to strengthen much as it heads into a drier air mass. The ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic that is now steering Jose to the north will give way to an advancing trough in 2 or 3 days and this will turn Jose to the east by mid-week. This trough will then lift out and Jose could actually change course once again later in the week by first dropping south and perhaps moving back to the west and towards the east coast in a weakened state. Ultimately, Jose is likely to interact with the advancing Hurricane Maria and this connection could have major ramifications as to where Maria ends up once that storm passes by the Bahamas.
While Jose may be in a weakening state, it is a large system and it is likely to impact southern New England and eastern Long Island with tropical storm conditions from later tomorrow into early Wednesday with wind-driven rain and tidal coastal flooding. These tropical storm conditions could extend to the southwest from there on Tuesday to western Long Island, NYC metro region, and the New Jersey coastline depending on Jose’s exact path.
The latest visible image loop of Hurricane Maria which has now attained "major" hurricane status. Images courtesy NOAA/GOES
Maria
While the latest satellite images of Jose are rather unimpressive, they show Maria to be strengthening rapidly. In fact, Maria has now reached “major” hurricane status as a category 3 with max sustained winds at 120 mph and very likely can intensify over the next 12-24 hours to a category 4 or even 5 storm. It is currently heading WNW at 10 mph and right towards the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and could make landfall there on Wednesday. If Maria hits Puerto Rico as a cat 3 hurricane, it would be the first since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. If Maria strengthens to a cat 4 and hits Puerto Rico – certainly a decent chance for this - it would be the fourth such storm of that strength in the record-keeping era. The last cat 5 hurricane to strike Puerto Rico was in 1929.
After its encounter with Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria is likely to slide just to the east of the Bahama Island chain and head in the general direction of the Southeast US. Exactly how the advancing Maria will interact with the “looping” Jose is yet to be determined and that interaction will be crucial in determining if Maria can continue to the US east coast or if it turns away into the open Atlantic. There is the possibility that the remnants of Jose provide an atmospheric "escape route" for Maria before it ever has a chance to reach the US east coast.
Stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com
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