12:30 PM | **Path of Hurricane Maria still a concern for US east coast**
Paul Dorian
Latest satellite image features remains of Jose to the north (upper right) and "major" Hurricane Maria to the south (lower right); courtesy NOAA, NASA
Overview
Hurricane Maria is now just to the east of the southeastern Bahamas and remains a “major” category 3 hurricane at 11 am with max sustained winds at 125 mph. Maria continues to move on a slow northwest track (8 mph) and will begin on a more northerly track this weekend. By the middle of next week, Maria will likely be situated to the east of the Carolinas; however, with very strong high pressure ridging firmly in place across southeastern Canada and the Northeast US, its movement beyond that point is still of concern for the east coast. A shift to the west in Maria's track is not out of the realm of possibility and that could present some problems to the US east coast from the Outer Banks to New Jersey.
12Z GFS forecast map of 500 mb height anomalies for Monday evening, September 25th, with a strong ridge of high pressure (orange) across SE Canada/Northeast US and Hurricane Maria (blue) over the western Atlantic; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC
Discussion
There are multiple players in the atmosphere that will play a role in Hurricane Maria’s eventual path over coming days. First, there are the remains of Jose which are tending to weaken and are spreading back to the southwest from yesterday’s positioning. Second, there will be a strengthening ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere by the early part of next week over southeastern Canada and the Northeast US. By late next week, a strong upper-level trough of low pressure will be barreling towards the eastern US so whatever impact Maria may have on the east coast will likely come to an abrupt end as the eastward-moving strong trough of low pressure should push Maria "out-to-sea" from wherever it is located at that time.
A strong ridge of high pressure located over SE Canada/NE US at the same time a hurricane moves slowly to the north over the western Atlantic raises numerous red flags. From this particular location, high pressure ridging often results in a westward shift in the path of a tropical system over the western Atlantic and that possibility remains a concern in this unfolding scenario - despite almost universal agreement amongst computer forecast models for an "out-to-sea" solution that has relatively little impact on the US. Don't be surprised if computer forecast models tend to shift westward over the next couple of days with their forecasted tracks of Hurricane Maria as they increase the influence of the very strong ridge to the north and decrease the effects of a weakening Jose.
The areas of greatest concern for a possible westward shift in the path of Maria would be the Outer Banks of North Carolina, coastal regions of the Delmarva Peninsula, and perhaps even as far north as coastal southern New Jersey. One positive part to the outlook is that after the next couple of days, Hurricane Maria is likely to weaken as it crosses over colder waters left behind by Hurricane Jose.
Stay tuned on this one, still a tricky forecast.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com