12:25 PM | *Widespread blast of winter-like cold this weekend/early next week for much of the nation*
Paul Dorian
00Z Euro ensemble model forecast map of 850 mb temperature anomalies averaged over the 5-day period from day 6 (Saturday, November 10) to day 10 (Thursday, November 15); courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the eastern US during the past several weeks will continue through this week with a coastal low pressure system to deal with today, a strong cold front on Tuesday, and then another low pressure system to end the work week on Friday. That late week low pressure system will usher in a colder-than-normal air mass for much of the eastern half of the nation for the upcoming weekend and it looks like there will be reinforcing winter-like air mass early next week - likely the coldest air mass so far this season. There is an outside chance that a storm forms near the Mid-Atlantic coastline early next week with the initial cold air mass already in place and a second blast of cold air on the way. This scenario could even lead to some snow in interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US during the first half of next week.
NOAA’s severe weather outlook for Tuesday, November 6th
Details
Low pressure is generating some steady rain today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but this should evolve into more of a “patchy drizzle” type of precipitation pattern later today and tonight. On Tuesday, warmer air will push into the Mid-Atlantic region ahead of a strong cold frontal system that will be heading eastward from the Midwest. This strong cold front is going to raise the chances for severe weather today across the Tennessee Valley and Deep South and this severe weather threat will shift to the eastern states later tomorrow - albeit in a weaker fashion.
12Z Euro forecast map of wind flow and height anomalies at 500 mb for next Monday, November 12th with air flow from Siberia to across the North Pole to the central US; courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
After a couple of primarily rain-free days on Wednesday and Thursday, another low pressure system will pull out of the southern states on Friday and head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This late week system is likely to generate more rain for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then it’ll usher in colder-than-normal air for the upcoming weekend. In fact, the colder-than-normal trend that begins this weekend is likely to persist through the first half of next week as a reinforcing winter-like air mass - the coldest so far this season - spreads across much of the eastern half of the nation. In fact, this blast of cold air coming for the early-to-middle part of next week looks like it will have its origin in Siberia for the first time this season if one follows the forecast map of 500 mb wind flow trajectories.
Signs point to a strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere early next week that could set off the development of a storm near the Mid-Atlantic coastline depending on how far south it “digs”; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com
There is a chance that a storm forms near the Mid-Atlantic coastline early next week as the next cold shot approaches and there actually could be cold enough air already in place for some snow across interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should this potential storm actually materialize. There are signs that a powerful wave of energy in the upper atmosphere will swing south and east early next week and if this system can “dig” far enough to the south, there very well could be a storm formation near the Mid-Atlantic coastal region – too early to say right now, stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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