1:25 PM (Friday) | *Widespread cold next week likely to bring record lows to the Rockies/central US…arrival time for the cold air in the eastern US could be Halloween Night or early Friday*
Paul Dorian
12Z GFS forecast map of 850 mb temperature anomalies on Wednesday morning, October 30th with widespread cold across much of the western and central US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
Amarillo, Texas received 5.5 inches of snow on Thursday – the 6th earliest snow accumulation on record – and the much colder-than-normal weather is not over with yet in the south-central US. In fact, another cold air outbreak next week will likely bring much colder-than-normal air to a large part of the nation with records lows possible in the Rocky Mountain States and then central US. The colder-than-normal air mass will spread quite slowly to the eastern US with a possible arrival time to coincide with Halloween Night (Thursday night) or early Friday - and that means possible rain, wind and even strong thunderstorms for the “trick-or-treaters” in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with mild conditions just ahead of the strong cold front. Once the colder-than-normal pattern becomes established late next week, it looks like it could stick around awhile as we head through the beginning of the month of November.
Halloween Night (Thursday night) could be the transition time in the eastern US to a colder-than-normal weather pattern that may last through the first week of November. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Discussion
An impressive tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico will team up with an eastward-moving cold front to bring significant rainfall over the next couple of days across a large portion of the eastern third of the nation. However, perhaps an even bigger story in the world of weather will be the outbreak of very cold air for this time of year that will likely plunge much of the western and central US into record low territory by the early and middle parts of next week and there will be more accumulating snow to go along with the unusual early season cold. Some computer forecast models (e.g., Euro) suggest some sections of the country will drop to as much as thirty degrees below-normal for late October and this would very likely result in record low temperatures across such areas as the Rocky Mountain States and then central US. The cold air mass now in place across the south-central US has resulted in some record lows this morning across Texas and New Mexico and this follows some broken records yesterday in Idaho, Utah and Wyoming.
Halloween (Thursday) could be a windy and wet day in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US as a strong cold front slowly approaches from the Ohio Valley. The colder-than-normal air mass that first arrives early next week in the western and central US may arrive in the eastern states on Thursday night or early Friday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Next week’s cold air mass will have some trouble spreading into the eastern part of the nation. It appears more and more likely that there will be a strong frontal system pushing into the Ohio Valley on Thursday, Halloween Day, and this will be the leading edge of the colder-than-normal air mass. As a result, Halloween Day could be windy, mild and wet in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with possible strong thunderstorms ahead of the strong front and then the colder air may finally push in during late Halloween night or early Friday. Once the colder pattern becomes established in the central and eastern US, it looks like it could stick around as we progress through the early part of November.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Video discussion: